Estrela vs Maritimo — Primeira Liga
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Estrela and Maritimo meet in the Primeira Liga 2026 season on 20 December 2026. Estrela have recorded 7 wins from 19 matches this season (37% win rate), averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 68% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 58%; and clean sheets in 16% of games. Maritimo have won 28% of their 18 matches, with 1.00 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 56%, and clean sheets at 22%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.67 for Estrela and 1.46 for Maritimo. The models give Estrela a 41% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Maritimo win at 33%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 60% and BTTS at 62%.
Season Statistics
Estrela—
Maritimo12º
Position
15º
0.91
PPG
0.80
18%
Win %
20%
1.55
Goals / game
0.90
2.00
Conceded / game
2.10
68%
BTTS %
56%
16%
Clean sheet %
22%
58%
Over 2.5 %
56%
4.1
Avg corners
3.3
12.6
Avg shots
10.7
3.9
Avg shots on target
3.4
2.1
Avg yellow cards
2.0
11.7
Avg fouls
15.1
50.7%
Avg possession
45.1%
Home vs Away
Estrela
Home (6)
—
Maritimo
Away (5)
0.83
PPG
0.80
17%
Win %
20%
1.33
Goals / game
1.00
2.00
Conceded / game
2.40
62%
BTTS %
86%
23%
Clean sheet %
0%
46%
Over 2.5 %
86%
4.1
Avg corners
3.3
12.6
Avg shots
10.7
3.9
Avg shots on target
3.4
2.1
Avg yellow cards
2.0
50.7%
Avg possession
45.1%
Goals Scored
| Estrela | Home | Away | Maritimo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 84% | 85% | 83% | 72% | 64% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 58% | 54% | 67% | 28% | 27% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 16% | 8% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 16% | 15% | 17% | 28% | 36% | 14% |
Goals Conceded
| Estrela | Home | Away | Maritimo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 84% | 77% | 100% | 78% | 64% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 58% | 54% | 67% | 50% | 45% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 11% | 8% | 17% | 22% | 18% | 29% |
| Clean Sheets | 16% | 23% | 0% | 22% | 36% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Estrela | Maritimo | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 22% |
| Over 4.5 | 21% | 11% |
| BTTS | 68% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 21% | 11% |
| BTTS & Draw | 32% | 17% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 58% | 44% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 11% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Estrela | Maritimo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 13% | 0% |
| Draw 1st Half | 56% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 31% | 50% |
| Scored 1st Half | 38% | 21% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 56% | 71% |
| Win 2nd Half | 44% | 43% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 44% | 21% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 13% | 36% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 75% | 57% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 63% | 57% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 69% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 31% | 36% |
Recent Venue Form
Estrela (H)L
Benfica2–3
Benfica2–3L
Casa Pia0–2
Casa Pia0–2L
Academico Viseu0–2
Academico Viseu0–2W
SC Braga2–1
SC Braga2–1D
Famalicao2–2
Famalicao2–2D
Sporting CP2–2
Sporting CP2–2Maritimo (A)LSporting CP1–2
Sporting CP1–2L
Vitória SC0–5
Vitória SC0–5W
Alcochetense2–1
Alcochetense2–1D
GIL Vicente1–1
GIL Vicente1–1L
Moreirense1–3
Moreirense1–3L
Arouca1–2
Arouca1–2Number of Corners
8.9
Corners / Match
11 games
League Avg
8.8
98 games
7.7
Corners / Match
10 games
| Match Corners | Estrela | Maritimo | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 82% | 80% | 76% |
| Over 7 | 64% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 8 | 64% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 9 | 45% | 10% | 43% |
| Over 10 | 36% | 10% | 31% |
| Over 11 | 18% | 0% | 17% |
| Over 12 | 9% | 0% | 11% |
| Over 13 | 9% | 0% | 9% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Estrela | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 82% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 64% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 64% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 82% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 73% | 70% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 45% | 60% |
Head to Head · 2 matches
1
Estrela
50%
0
Draws
0%
1
Maritimo
50%
100%
Over 1.5
2/2
100%
Over 2.5
2/2
0%
Over 3.5
0/2
100%
BTTS
2/2
11/06/23Estrela
Maritimo
2–1Estrela03/06/23Maritimo
Estrela
2–1Maritimo| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 2 |
Team Insights
Estrela- ●Estrela have failed to win in their last 6 matches.
- ●Estrela have lost their last 5 matches.
- ●Estrela failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 11 matches.
- ●Estrela have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Estrela have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●Estrela failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Estrela have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Estrela failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Estrela failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Estrela failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Maritimo- ●Maritimo have failed to win in their last 8 matches.
- ●Maritimo have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Maritimo failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 9 matches.
- ●Maritimo have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Maritimo have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Maritimo have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●Maritimo failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Maritimo failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Maritimo failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Season Schedule
EstrelaLHBenfica2–3
Benfica2–3LAMoreirense1–2
Moreirense1–2LHCasa Pia0–2
Casa Pia0–2LAArouca0–1
Arouca0–1LHAcademico Viseu0–2
Academico Viseu0–2DARio Ave3–3
Rio Ave3–3–AVitória SC28/11
Vitória SC28/11–HGIL Vicente06/12
GIL Vicente06/12–AFC Porto13/12
FC Porto13/12MaritimoLHSanta Clara0–2
Santa Clara0–2LAVitória SC0–5
Vitória SC0–5LHFC Porto1–2
FC Porto1–2DAGIL Vicente1–1
GIL Vicente1–1LAMoreirense1–3
Moreirense1–3LHBenfica0–3
Benfica0–3–HNacional27/11
Nacional27/11–ASporting CP06/12
Sporting CP06/12–HRio Ave13/12
Rio Ave13/12Top Scorers
EstrelaL. Antonetti5 ⚽
Ianis Stoica3 ⚽
A. Marcus3 ⚽
Abraham Marcus2 ⚽
B. Souza2 ⚽
Leandro Antonetti2 ⚽
MaritimoA. Butzke2 ⚽
M. Boakye2 ⚽
S. Bouzaidi2 ⚽
Romain Correia1 ⚽
M. Tejon1 ⚽
P. Henrique1 ⚽
Cards Given
EstrelaMax Scholze3 🟨
Pedro Miguel Marques da Costa Filipe2 🟨
G. Doue2 🟨
Luan Patrick2 🟨
Eddy Doué2 🟨
Stefan Lekovic2 🟨
MaritimoRaphael Guzzo4 🟨
Rodri Andrade3 🟨
Igor Juliao2 🟨
Igor Julião2 🟨
R. Fernandes2 🟨
Israel Isaac Ayuma1 🟨