Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town — Premier League
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Barry Town and Caernarfon Town meet in the Premier League 2026 season on 28 November 2026. Barry Town have recorded 14 wins from 20 matches this season (70% win rate), averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 70% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 70%; and clean sheets in 20% of games. Caernarfon Town have won 59% of their 17 matches, with 2.47 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 59%, Over 2.5 at 82%, and clean sheets at 24%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.72 for Barry Town and 1.89 for Caernarfon Town. The models give Barry Town a 39% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Caernarfon Town win at 37%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 70% and BTTS at 70%.
Season Statistics
Barry Town—
Caernarfon Town6º
Position
4º
1.92
PPG
2.00
62%
Win %
62%
2.15
Goals / game
2.85
1.77
Conceded / game
1.15
70%
BTTS %
59%
20%
Clean sheet %
24%
70%
Over 2.5 %
82%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Barry Town
Home (6)
—
Caernarfon Town
Away (7)
2.17
PPG
2.43
67%
Win %
71%
2.33
Goals / game
2.71
1.67
Conceded / game
1.14
70%
BTTS %
70%
20%
Clean sheet %
20%
70%
Over 2.5 %
80%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Barry Town | Home | Away | Caernarfon Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 90% | 90% | 90% | 82% | 71% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 65% | 70% | 60% | 71% | 57% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 40% | 40% | 40% | 35% | 43% | 30% |
| Failed To Score | 10% | 10% | 10% | 18% | 29% | 10% |
Goals Conceded
| Barry Town | Home | Away | Caernarfon Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 80% | 80% | 80% | 76% | 71% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 35% | 30% | 40% | 35% | 43% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 15% | 10% | 20% | 24% | 29% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 20% | 20% | 24% | 29% | 20% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Barry Town | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 94% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 47% |
| Over 4.5 | 40% | 35% |
| BTTS | 70% | 59% |
| BTTS & Win | 50% | 35% |
| BTTS & Draw | 5% | 12% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 70% | 53% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 29% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Barry Town | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 50% | 53% |
| Draw 1st Half | 30% | 6% |
| Loss 1st Half | 20% | 41% |
| Scored 1st Half | 70% | 71% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 35% | 59% |
| Win 2nd Half | 55% | 41% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 20% | 41% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 25% | 18% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 70% | 65% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 47% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 80% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 50% | 53% |
Recent Venue Form
Barry Town (H)W
Tredegar Town2–0
Tredegar Town2–0L
GAP Connah S Quay FC1–4
GAP Connah S Quay FC1–4D
Ammanford AFC2–2
Ammanford AFC2–2W
Llandudno4–1
Llandudno4–1W
Airbus UK4–2
Airbus UK4–2W
Cardiff MET1–0
Cardiff MET1–0Caernarfon Town (A)W
Flint Town United3–1
Flint Town United3–1W
Haverfordwest County AFC2–1
Haverfordwest County AFC2–1DCardiff MET2–2
Cardiff MET2–2DLlandudno1–1
Llandudno1–1WAmmanford AFC5–0
Ammanford AFC5–0W
Holywell5–3
Holywell5–3Head to Head · 25 matches
11
Barry Town
44%
4
Draws
16%
10
Caernarfon Town
40%
84%
Over 1.5
21/25
60%
Over 2.5
15/25
40%
Over 3.5
10/25
60%
BTTS
15/25
03/10/26Barry Town
Caernarfon Town
0–1Barry Town21/03/26Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
2–1Caernarfon Town14/02/26Barry Town
Caernarfon Town
0–2Barry Town11/10/25Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
2–2Caernarfon Town07/09/25Barry Town
Caernarfon Town
3–1Barry Town26/04/25Barry Town
Caernarfon Town
5–2Barry Town14/12/24Barry Town
Caernarfon Town
3–2Barry Town21/09/24Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
1–1Caernarfon Town19/11/23Barry Town
Caernarfon Town
2–3Barry Town30/09/23Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
0–3Caernarfon Town26/02/22Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
1–2Caernarfon Town30/10/21Barry Town
Caernarfon Town
1–2Barry Town22/05/21Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
1–3Caernarfon Town15/05/21Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
3–2Caernarfon Town10/04/21Barry Town
Caernarfon Town
0–1Barry Town12/12/20Barry Town
Caernarfon Town
2–0Barry Town19/09/20Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
3–1Caernarfon Town22/02/20Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
1–1Caernarfon Town02/11/19Barry Town
Caernarfon Town
4–1Barry Town07/09/19Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
0–0Caernarfon Town| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The New Saints | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | +38 | 37 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | +14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +22 | 26 |
| 5 |  Colwyn Bay | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | +7 | 25 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +8 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | +7 | 21 |
| 9 |  Cambrian & Clydach | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 |  Briton Ferry | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -22 | 9 |
| 14 | Flint Town United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Trefelin | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Team Insights
Barry Town- ●Barry Town have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Barry Town have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Barry Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Barry Town have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Barry Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Barry Town have won 4 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Barry Town have scored in 6 of their 7 away matches.
Caernarfon Town- ●Caernarfon Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town have been undefeated in their last 7 away matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town have scored in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town have won 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Caernarfon Town have scored in 7 of their 7 away matches.
- ●65% of Caernarfon Town's points have been earned away.
- ●Caernarfon Town have conceded 60% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Barry TownLAPenybont1–3
Penybont1–3WACaernarfon Town1–0
Caernarfon Town1–0LHGAP Connah S Quay FC1–4
GAP Connah S Quay FC1–4LAColwyn Bay2–5
Colwyn Bay2–5DHAmmanford AFC2–2
Ammanford AFC2–2WHLlandudno4–1
Llandudno4–1–HHaverfordwest County AFC24/10
Haverfordwest County AFC24/10–HTrefelin30/10
Trefelin30/10–ACambrian & Clydach06/11
Cambrian & Clydach06/11Caernarfon TownWAHaverfordwest County AFC2–1
Haverfordwest County AFC2–1LHBarry Town0–1
Barry Town0–1DACardiff MET2–2
Cardiff MET2–2WHCambrian & Clydach9–1
Cambrian & Clydach9–1DALlandudno1–1
Llandudno1–1WAAmmanford AFC5–0
Ammanford AFC5–0–HBriton Ferry23/10
Briton Ferry23/10–AAirbus UK30/10
Airbus UK30/10–APenybont06/11
Penybont06/11Top Scorers
Barry TownE. Dugan6 ⚽
O. Brain6 ⚽
5 ⚽
N. Daley4 ⚽
D. Smith3 ⚽
J. Shaw3 ⚽
Caernarfon TownZ. Clarke13 ⚽
S. Bradley6 ⚽
O. Evans4 ⚽
N. Edwards3 ⚽
A. Cieslewicz3 ⚽
P. Mooney2 ⚽
Cards Given
Barry Town4 🟨
N. Daley3 🟨
O. Cuddihy3 🟨
J. Shaw2 🟨
C. Sainty2 🟨
D. Barton2 🟨
Caernarfon TownB. Nash4 🟨
N. Edwards4 🟨
C. Marriott4 🟨
R. Sears3 🟨
D. Gosset3 🟨
P. Mendes2 🟨