Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Segunda Liga
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Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril·Penafiel·Portugal·6,500
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Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa meet in the Segunda Liga 2026 season on 15 November 2026. Penafiel have recorded 7 wins from 15 matches this season (47% win rate), averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 47% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 60%; and clean sheets in 27% of games. Lusitânia Lourosa have won 44% of their 18 matches, with 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 44%, and clean sheets at 28%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.49 for Penafiel and 1.33 for Lusitânia Lourosa. The models give Penafiel a 42% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Lusitânia Lourosa win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51% and BTTS at 55%.
Season Statistics
Penafiel—
Lusitânia Lourosa2º
Position
3º
2.11
PPG
2.11
67%
Win %
56%
2.11
Goals / game
1.67
0.89
Conceded / game
0.89
47%
BTTS %
56%
27%
Clean sheet %
28%
60%
Over 2.5 %
44%
3.8
Avg corners
5.6
14.2
Avg shots
14.0
6.2
Avg shots on target
5.4
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.9
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
49.0%
Avg possession
49.8%
Home vs Away
Penafiel
Home (5)
—
Lusitânia Lourosa
Away (4)
1.80
PPG
2.50
60%
Win %
75%
1.60
Goals / game
1.75
0.80
Conceded / game
0.75
38%
BTTS %
50%
25%
Clean sheet %
38%
38%
Over 2.5 %
50%
3.8
Avg corners
5.6
14.2
Avg shots
14.0
6.2
Avg shots on target
5.4
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.9
49.0%
Avg possession
49.8%
Goals Scored
| Penafiel | Home | Away | Lusitânia Lourosa | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 67% | 63% | 71% | 78% | 80% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 53% | 38% | 71% | 56% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 20% | 13% | 29% | 11% | 10% | 13% |
| Failed To Score | 33% | 38% | 29% | 22% | 20% | 25% |
Goals Conceded
| Penafiel | Home | Away | Lusitânia Lourosa | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 73% | 75% | 71% | 72% | 80% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 33% | 38% | 29% | 33% | 40% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 7% | 0% | 14% | 11% | 10% | 13% |
| Clean Sheets | 27% | 25% | 29% | 28% | 20% | 38% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Penafiel | Lusitânia Lourosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 28% |
| Over 4.5 | 20% | 11% |
| BTTS | 47% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 27% | 22% |
| BTTS & Draw | 13% | 28% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 47% | 44% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 13% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Penafiel | Lusitânia Lourosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 43% | 50% |
| Draw 1st Half | 29% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 29% | 21% |
| Scored 1st Half | 50% | 71% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 36% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 43% | 36% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 36% | 50% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 21% | 14% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 64% | 64% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 36% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 79% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 43% | 50% |
Recent Venue Form
Penafiel (H)W
Feirense1–0
Feirense1–0L
Leça0–1
Leça0–1L
AVS1–2
AVS1–2D
Deportivo La Coruna2–2
Deportivo La Coruna2–2W
Academica4–1
Academica4–1W
Sporting CP B2–0
Sporting CP B2–0Lusitânia Lourosa (A)D
Felgueiras 19322–2
Felgueiras 19322–2W
Madalena3–1
Madalena3–1WSporting CP B2–1
Sporting CP B2–1WAcademica2–0
Academica2–0W
Amarante1–0
Amarante1–0L
Paredes2–4
Paredes2–4Number of Corners
8.2
Corners / Match
5 games
League Avg
9.4
46 games
8.6
Corners / Match
5 games
| Match Corners | Penafiel | Lusitânia Lourosa | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 60% | 100% | 83% |
| Over 7 | 60% | 60% | 67% |
| Over 8 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 9 | 40% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 10 | 0% | 20% | 30% |
| Over 11 | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 13% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Penafiel | Lusitânia Lourosa |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.8 | 5.6 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.4 | 3.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 60% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 40% | 100% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 80% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 60% | 20% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 40% | 0% |
Head to Head · 2 matches
1
Penafiel
50%
1
Draws
50%
0
Lusitânia Lourosa
0%
50%
Over 1.5
1/2
0%
Over 2.5
0/2
0%
Over 3.5
0/2
0%
BTTS
0/2
16/02/26Lusitânia Lourosa
Penafiel
2–0Lusitânia Lourosa13/09/25Penafiel
Lusitânia Lourosa
0–0Penafiel| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP B | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 | Penafiel | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Benfica B | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 |  Farense | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Academica | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  Tondela | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Vizela | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 |  União de Leiria | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | AVS | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 |  Portimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 |  Torreense | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 |  Leixoes | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Amarante | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Chaves | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 |  FC Porto B | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Felgueiras 1932 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Feirense | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 2 |
Team Insights
Penafiel- ●Penafiel have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Penafiel have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Penafiel have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Lusitânia Lourosa- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have been undefeated in their last 9 matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have scored in each of their last 9 matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have been undefeated in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have scored 60% of their goals in the first half.
- ●Lusitânia Lourosa have conceded 63% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
PenafielWHFeirense1–0
Feirense1–0WAFarense4–1
Farense4–1LHAVS1–2
AVS1–2WAFelgueiras 19322–1
Felgueiras 19322–1WHAcademica4–1
Academica4–1WAFC Porto B3–0
FC Porto B3–0–AChaves07/11
Chaves07/11–HLusitânia Lourosa15/11
Lusitânia Lourosa15/11–HBenfica B29/11
Benfica B29/11Lusitânia LourosaDHFarense1–1
Farense1–1DAFelgueiras 19322–2
Felgueiras 19322–2DHChaves1–1
Chaves1–1WASporting CP B2–1
Sporting CP B2–1WHAVS2–1
AVS2–1WAAcademica2–0
Academica2–0–AFeirense08/11
Feirense08/11–APenafiel15/11
Penafiel15/11–HVizela28/11
Vizela28/11Top Scorers
PenafielM. Svensson4 ⚽
Davo3 ⚽
Claudio Mendes2 ⚽
João Pinto2 ⚽
Juanda Fuentes2 ⚽
Max Svensson2 ⚽
Lusitânia LourosaMicael correia4 ⚽
2 ⚽
J. Santos2 ⚽
J. Silva2 ⚽
Guilherme Araujo Soares1 ⚽
Dylan João Raymond Collard1 ⚽
Cards Given
PenafielJaime Sánchez3 🟨
3 🟨
Pedro Sa2 🟨
J. Sanchez2 🟨
C. Moreira2 🟨
Max Svensson2 🟨
Lusitânia LourosaRicardinho4 🟨
M. Tablante2 🟨
B. Faria2 🟨
Fabinho2 🟨
D. Paulo2 🟨
João Santos2 🟨