Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town — FAW Championship
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Baglan Dragons and Aberystwyth Town meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 24 October 2026. Baglan Dragons have recorded 6 wins from 12 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 58% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 58%; and clean sheets in 25% of games. Aberystwyth Town have won 70% of their 10 matches, with 2.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 60%, Over 2.5 at 70%, and clean sheets at 30%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.52 for Baglan Dragons and 1.97 for Aberystwyth Town. The models give Baglan Dragons a 30% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Aberystwyth Town win at 46%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 68% and BTTS at 67%.
Season Statistics
Baglan Dragons—
Aberystwyth Town5º
Position
3º
1.55
PPG
2.11
45%
Win %
67%
1.09
Goals / game
2.44
1.09
Conceded / game
1.00
58%
BTTS %
60%
25%
Clean sheet %
30%
58%
Over 2.5 %
70%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Baglan Dragons
Home (6)
—
Aberystwyth Town
Away (3)
1.17
PPG
3.00
33%
Win %
100%
1.17
Goals / game
3.67
1.50
Conceded / game
1.67
67%
BTTS %
100%
0%
Clean sheet %
0%
67%
Over 2.5 %
100%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Baglan Dragons | Home | Away | Aberystwyth Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 75% | 67% | 83% | 80% | 71% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 33% | 33% | 33% | 60% | 43% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 17% | 17% | 17% | 60% | 43% | 100% |
| Failed To Score | 25% | 33% | 17% | 20% | 29% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Baglan Dragons | Home | Away | Aberystwyth Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 75% | 100% | 50% | 70% | 57% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 25% | 33% | 17% | 30% | 14% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 8% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 25% | 0% | 50% | 30% | 43% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Baglan Dragons | Aberystwyth Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 60% |
| Over 4.5 | 0% | 40% |
| BTTS | 58% | 60% |
| BTTS & Win | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS & Draw | 8% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 8% | 10% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Baglan Dragons | Aberystwyth Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 33% | 60% |
| Draw 1st Half | 42% | 40% |
| Loss 1st Half | 25% | 0% |
| Scored 1st Half | 42% | 70% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 20% |
| Win 2nd Half | 25% | 50% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 42% | 20% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 33% | 30% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 42% | 70% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 60% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 70% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 42% | 40% |
Recent Venue Form
Baglan Dragons (H)D
Pontypridd Town1–1
Pontypridd Town1–1L
Carmarthen Town1–2
Carmarthen Town1–2W
Afan Lido2–1
Afan Lido2–1L
Caerphilly Athletic0–1
Caerphilly Athletic0–1W
Caerau (Ely)3–1
Caerau (Ely)3–1L
Swansea University0–3
Swansea University0–3Aberystwyth Town (A)WPontypridd Town3–1
Pontypridd Town3–1WCaerphilly Athletic3–2
Caerphilly Athletic3–2WAfan Lido5–2
Afan Lido5–2D
Ynyshir Albions0–0
Ynyshir Albions0–0L
Cwmbran Celtic1–3
Cwmbran Celtic1–3L
Cambrian & Clydach0–2
Cambrian & Clydach0–2Head to Head · 2 matches
0
Baglan Dragons
0%
0
Draws
0%
2
Aberystwyth Town
100%
50%
Over 1.5
1/2
50%
Over 2.5
1/2
0%
Over 3.5
0/2
50%
BTTS
1/2
07/02/26Aberystwyth Town
Baglan Dragons
0–1Aberystwyth Town09/08/25Baglan Dragons
Aberystwyth Town
2–1Baglan Dragons| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +16 | 27 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +15 | 23 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 23 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 |  Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 |  Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 |  Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 |  Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 |  Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Team Insights
Baglan Dragons- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●75% of Baglan Dragons's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●Baglan Dragons have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Aberystwyth Town- ●Aberystwyth Town have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Aberystwyth Town have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Aberystwyth Town have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 home matches.
Season Schedule
Baglan DragonsDHPontypridd Town1–1
Pontypridd Town1–1WAllanelli AFC2–1
llanelli AFC2–1LHCarmarthen Town1–2
Carmarthen Town1–2LACardiff Draconians1–2
Cardiff Draconians1–2WHAfan Lido2–1
Afan Lido2–1LHCaerphilly Athletic0–1
Caerphilly Athletic0–1–HAberystwyth Town24/10
Aberystwyth Town24/10–HTreowen Stars30/10
Treowen Stars30/10–HYnyshir Albions06/11
Ynyshir Albions06/11Aberystwyth TownLHCaerau (Ely)0–1
Caerau (Ely)0–1WAPontypridd Town3–1
Pontypridd Town3–1DHSwansea University0–0
Swansea University0–0WACaerphilly Athletic3–2
Caerphilly Athletic3–2WHllanelli AFC4–0
llanelli AFC4–0WHPontardawe Town1–0
Pontardawe Town1–0–ABaglan Dragons24/10
Baglan Dragons24/10–HTrethomas Bluebirds31/10
Trethomas Bluebirds31/10–ACarmarthen Town07/11
Carmarthen Town07/11Top Scorers
Baglan DragonsT. Jones6 ⚽
T. Davies4 ⚽
A. Dubjaga1 ⚽
A. Garland1 ⚽
Aberystwyth TownA. Williams6 ⚽
R. Hughes3 ⚽
L. Walsh2 ⚽
T. Evans2 ⚽
D. Browne2 ⚽
D. Owen2 ⚽
Cards Given
Baglan DragonsK. Parsons1 🟨
Aberystwyth TownL. Walsh2 🟨