Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars — FAW Championship
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Baglan Dragons and Treowen Stars meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 30 October 2026. Baglan Dragons have recorded 6 wins from 12 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 58% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 58%; and clean sheets in 25% of games. Treowen Stars have won 40% of their 10 matches, with 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 80%, Over 2.5 at 80%, and clean sheets at 20%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.75 for Baglan Dragons and 1.79 for Treowen Stars. The models give Baglan Dragons a 39% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Treowen Stars win at 36%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 68% and BTTS at 69%.
Season Statistics
Baglan Dragons—
Treowen Stars5º
Position
11º
1.55
PPG
1.30
45%
Win %
40%
1.09
Goals / game
1.90
1.09
Conceded / game
2.10
58%
BTTS %
80%
25%
Clean sheet %
20%
58%
Over 2.5 %
80%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Baglan Dragons
Home (6)
—
Treowen Stars
Away (5)
1.17
PPG
1.80
33%
Win %
60%
1.17
Goals / game
2.20
1.50
Conceded / game
2.40
67%
BTTS %
80%
0%
Clean sheet %
20%
67%
Over 2.5 %
80%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Baglan Dragons | Home | Away | Treowen Stars | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 75% | 67% | 83% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 33% | 33% | 33% | 60% | 40% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 17% | 17% | 17% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed To Score | 25% | 33% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Baglan Dragons | Home | Away | Treowen Stars | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 75% | 100% | 50% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 25% | 33% | 17% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 8% | 17% | 0% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 25% | 0% | 50% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Baglan Dragons | Treowen Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 | 0% | 40% |
| BTTS | 58% | 80% |
| BTTS & Win | 33% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 8% | 10% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 8% | 10% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Baglan Dragons | Treowen Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 33% | 30% |
| Draw 1st Half | 42% | 30% |
| Loss 1st Half | 25% | 40% |
| Scored 1st Half | 42% | 60% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 60% |
| Win 2nd Half | 25% | 50% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 42% | 20% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 33% | 30% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 42% | 70% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 70% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 42% | 60% |
Recent Venue Form
Baglan Dragons (H)D
Pontypridd Town1–1
Pontypridd Town1–1L
Carmarthen Town1–2
Carmarthen Town1–2W
Afan Lido2–1
Afan Lido2–1L
Caerphilly Athletic0–1
Caerphilly Athletic0–1W
Caerau (Ely)3–1
Caerau (Ely)3–1L
Swansea University0–3
Swansea University0–3Treowen Stars (A)L
Pontardawe Town1–6
Pontardawe Town1–6W
llanelli AFC2–0
llanelli AFC2–0LCaerau (Ely)2–3
Caerau (Ely)2–3WCarmarthen Town4–2
Carmarthen Town4–2W
Aberystwyth Town2–1
Aberystwyth Town2–1L
Trefelin0–6
Trefelin0–6Head to Head · 2 matches
0
Baglan Dragons
0%
0
Draws
0%
2
Treowen Stars
100%
100%
Over 1.5
2/2
100%
Over 2.5
2/2
100%
Over 3.5
2/2
100%
BTTS
2/2
17/03/26Baglan Dragons
Treowen Stars
4–1Baglan Dragons24/10/25Treowen Stars
Baglan Dragons
3–4Treowen Stars| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +17 | 30 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +15 | 24 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 23 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Rhyl | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 |  Llantwit Major | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 13 |  Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 |  Newport City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 15 |  Cardiff Draconians | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -27 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Team Insights
Baglan Dragons- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●75% of Baglan Dragons's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●Baglan Dragons have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Treowen Stars- ●Treowen Stars have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●Treowen Stars have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Treowen Stars have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- ●Treowen Stars have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Treowen Stars have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Treowen Stars have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Treowen Stars failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Treowen Stars failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Treowen Stars have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Treowen Stars have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●69% of Treowen Stars's points have been earned away.
- ●Treowen Stars have conceded 57% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Baglan DragonsDHPontypridd Town1–1
Pontypridd Town1–1WAllanelli AFC2–1
llanelli AFC2–1LHCarmarthen Town1–2
Carmarthen Town1–2LACardiff Draconians1–2
Cardiff Draconians1–2WHAfan Lido2–1
Afan Lido2–1LHCaerphilly Athletic0–1
Caerphilly Athletic0–1–HTreowen Stars30/10
Treowen Stars30/10–HYnyshir Albions06/11
Ynyshir Albions06/11–APontardawe Town21/11
Pontardawe Town21/11Treowen StarsLHTrethomas Bluebirds1–3
Trethomas Bluebirds1–3LHYnyshir Albions1–2
Ynyshir Albions1–2LAPontardawe Town1–6
Pontardawe Town1–6DHLlantwit Major1–1
Llantwit Major1–1WAllanelli AFC2–0
llanelli AFC2–0LACaerau (Ely)2–3
Caerau (Ely)2–3–ABaglan Dragons30/10
Baglan Dragons30/10–ANewport City06/11
Newport City06/11–HAfan Lido21/11
Afan Lido21/11Top Scorers
Baglan DragonsT. Jones6 ⚽
T. Davies4 ⚽
A. Dubjaga1 ⚽
A. Garland1 ⚽
Treowen StarsT. Hillman5 ⚽
C. Davies3 ⚽
T. Gameson3 ⚽
L. Oliver2 ⚽
M. Evans2 ⚽
J. Foxwell1 ⚽
Cards Given
Baglan DragonsK. Parsons1 🟨
Treowen StarsG. Meacham1 🟨
J. Evans1 🟨