Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic — FAW Championship
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Afan Lido and Caerphilly Athletic meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 6 November 2026. Afan Lido have recorded 3 wins from 12 matches this season (25% win rate), averaging 1.58 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 58%; and clean sheets in 42% of games. Caerphilly Athletic have won 30% of their 10 matches, with 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 60%, Over 2.5 at 80%, and clean sheets at 20%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.02 for Afan Lido and 1.40 for Caerphilly Athletic. The models give Afan Lido a 48% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Caerphilly Athletic win at 28%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 66% and BTTS at 65%.
Season Statistics
Afan Lido—
Caerphilly Athletic10º
Position
11º
1.09
PPG
1.10
27%
Win %
30%
1.64
Goals / game
1.20
2.00
Conceded / game
1.90
50%
BTTS %
60%
42%
Clean sheet %
20%
58%
Over 2.5 %
80%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Afan Lido
Home (6)
—
Caerphilly Athletic
Away (5)
1.50
PPG
0.80
33%
Win %
20%
2.17
Goals / game
0.80
1.67
Conceded / game
2.20
33%
BTTS %
40%
67%
Clean sheet %
20%
50%
Over 2.5 %
80%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Afan Lido | Home | Away | Caerphilly Athletic | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 75% | 67% | 83% | 70% | 80% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 33% | 50% | 17% | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 17% | 33% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 25% | 33% | 17% | 30% | 20% | 40% |
Goals Conceded
| Afan Lido | Home | Away | Caerphilly Athletic | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 58% | 33% | 83% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 58% | 33% | 83% | 70% | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 33% | 33% | 33% | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 42% | 67% | 17% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Afan Lido | Caerphilly Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 83% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 | 33% | 20% |
| BTTS | 50% | 60% |
| BTTS & Win | 0% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 8% | 10% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 8% | 20% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Afan Lido | Caerphilly Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 17% | 20% |
| Draw 1st Half | 67% | 30% |
| Loss 1st Half | 17% | 50% |
| Scored 1st Half | 42% | 40% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 42% | 60% |
| Win 2nd Half | 33% | 20% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 17% | 50% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 50% | 30% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 67% | 60% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 70% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 50% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 42% | 60% |
Recent Venue Form
Afan Lido (H)D
Swansea University5–5
Swansea University5–5D
Newport City0–0
Newport City0–0D
Ynyshir Albions0–0
Ynyshir Albions0–0W
Pontardawe Town1–0
Pontardawe Town1–0W
Llantwit Major5–0
Llantwit Major5–0L
Aberystwyth Town2–5
Aberystwyth Town2–5Caerphilly Athletic (A)LSwansea University1–3
Swansea University1–3D
Trethomas Bluebirds2–2
Trethomas Bluebirds2–2W
Baglan Dragons1–0
Baglan Dragons1–0L
Treowen Stars0–3
Treowen Stars0–3LPontardawe Town0–3
Pontardawe Town0–3D
Abertillery Bluebirds1–1
Abertillery Bluebirds1–1| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +16 | 27 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +15 | 23 |
| 2 |  Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 23 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 |  Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 |  Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 |  Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 |  Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Team Insights
Afan Lido- ●Afan Lido have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Afan Lido have been undefeated in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Afan Lido have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Afan Lido failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Afan Lido have lost 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●72% of Afan Lido's goals have been scored at home.
- ●75% of Afan Lido's points have been earned at home.
Caerphilly Athletic- ●Caerphilly Athletic failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●67% of Caerphilly Athletic's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Afan LidoDHSwansea University5–5
Swansea University5–5LACaerau (Ely)0–2
Caerau (Ely)0–2DHNewport City0–0
Newport City0–0WAPontypridd Town1–0
Pontypridd Town1–0LABaglan Dragons1–2
Baglan Dragons1–2DHYnyshir Albions0–0
Ynyshir Albions0–0–Allanelli AFC23/10
llanelli AFC23/10–ACardiff Draconians31/10
Cardiff Draconians31/10–HCaerphilly Athletic06/11
Caerphilly Athletic06/11Caerphilly AthleticWHNewport City3–2
Newport City3–2LASwansea University1–3
Swansea University1–3LHPontypridd Town1–2
Pontypridd Town1–2LHAberystwyth Town2–3
Aberystwyth Town2–3DATrethomas Bluebirds2–2
Trethomas Bluebirds2–2WABaglan Dragons1–0
Baglan Dragons1–0–ACarmarthen Town23/10
Carmarthen Town23/10–HCaerau (Ely)30/10
Caerau (Ely)30/10–AAfan Lido06/11
Afan Lido06/11Top Scorers
Afan LidoL. Griffiths4 ⚽
A. Giardelli4 ⚽
C. Keetch2 ⚽
J. Pascoe2 ⚽
B. Roberts2 ⚽
J. Baker1 ⚽
Caerphilly AthleticF. Skiverton4 ⚽
D. Perrett3 ⚽
E. Humphries2 ⚽
T. Jordan2 ⚽
L. Reed1 ⚽