Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town — FAW Championship
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Carmarthen Town and Aberystwyth Town meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 7 November 2026. Carmarthen Town have recorded 5 wins from 13 matches this season (38% win rate), averaging 2.23 goals scored and 2.23 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 100% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 100%; and clean sheets in 0% of games. Aberystwyth Town have won 67% of their 9 matches, with 2.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 67%, and clean sheets at 33%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.87 for Carmarthen Town and 2.28 for Aberystwyth Town. The models give Carmarthen Town a 35% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Aberystwyth Town win at 42%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 78% and BTTS at 76%.
Season Statistics
Carmarthen Town—
Aberystwyth Town7º
Position
3º
1.50
PPG
2.11
40%
Win %
67%
2.20
Goals / game
2.44
2.10
Conceded / game
1.00
100%
BTTS %
56%
0%
Clean sheet %
33%
100%
Over 2.5 %
67%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Carmarthen Town
Home (6)
—
Aberystwyth Town
Away (3)
1.17
PPG
3.00
33%
Win %
100%
2.33
Goals / game
3.67
2.50
Conceded / game
1.67
100%
BTTS %
100%
0%
Clean sheet %
0%
100%
Over 2.5 %
100%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Carmarthen Town | Home | Away | Aberystwyth Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 100% | 100% | 100% | 78% | 67% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 85% | 78% | 100% | 56% | 33% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 23% | 33% | 0% | 56% | 33% | 100% |
| Failed To Score | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% | 33% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Carmarthen Town | Home | Away | Aberystwyth Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 100% | 100% | 100% | 67% | 50% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 77% | 89% | 50% | 33% | 17% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 38% | 56% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 50% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Carmarthen Town | Aberystwyth Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 77% | 56% |
| Over 4.5 | 38% | 33% |
| BTTS | 100% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 38% | 44% |
| BTTS & Draw | 23% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 100% | 56% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 11% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Carmarthen Town | Aberystwyth Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 31% | 56% |
| Draw 1st Half | 46% | 44% |
| Loss 1st Half | 23% | 0% |
| Scored 1st Half | 77% | 67% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 54% | 11% |
| Win 2nd Half | 38% | 44% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 15% | 22% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 46% | 33% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 69% | 67% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 69% | 67% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 85% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 69% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
Carmarthen Town (H)L
Llantwit Major1–2
Llantwit Major1–2D
Ynyshir Albions2–2
Ynyshir Albions2–2L
Trethomas Bluebirds2–3
Trethomas Bluebirds2–3L
Treowen Stars2–4
Treowen Stars2–4W
Afan Lido3–1
Afan Lido3–1W
Caerau (Ely)4–3
Caerau (Ely)4–3Aberystwyth Town (A)W
Pontypridd Town3–1
Pontypridd Town3–1W
Caerphilly Athletic3–2
Caerphilly Athletic3–2WAfan Lido5–2
Afan Lido5–2DYnyshir Albions0–0
Ynyshir Albions0–0L
Cwmbran Celtic1–3
Cwmbran Celtic1–3L
Cambrian & Clydach0–2
Cambrian & Clydach0–2Head to Head · 29 matches
10
Carmarthen Town
34%
7
Draws
24%
12
Aberystwyth Town
41%
83%
Over 1.5
24/29
69%
Over 2.5
20/29
45%
Over 3.5
13/29
62%
BTTS
18/29
01/01/26Carmarthen Town
Aberystwyth Town
1–1Carmarthen Town22/08/25Aberystwyth Town
Carmarthen Town
1–0Aberystwyth Town18/10/19Aberystwyth Town
Carmarthen Town
0–0Aberystwyth Town16/08/19Carmarthen Town
Aberystwyth Town
3–2Carmarthen Town26/04/19Aberystwyth Town
Carmarthen Town
6–2Aberystwyth Town08/03/19Carmarthen Town
Aberystwyth Town
3–2Carmarthen Town30/11/18Carmarthen Town
Aberystwyth Town
1–1Carmarthen Town22/09/18Aberystwyth Town
Carmarthen Town
2–2Aberystwyth Town20/04/18Carmarthen Town
Aberystwyth Town
1–1Carmarthen Town06/03/18Aberystwyth Town
Carmarthen Town
1–3Aberystwyth Town25/02/18Aberystwyth Town
Carmarthen Town
3–3Aberystwyth Town01/01/18Carmarthen Town
Aberystwyth Town
1–2Carmarthen Town26/12/17Aberystwyth Town
Carmarthen Town
1–0Aberystwyth Town20/09/16Aberystwyth Town
Carmarthen Town
0–5Aberystwyth Town10/09/16Carmarthen Town
Aberystwyth Town
0–3Carmarthen Town16/04/16Aberystwyth Town
Carmarthen Town
1–0Aberystwyth Town27/02/16Carmarthen Town
Aberystwyth Town
2–4Carmarthen Town29/12/15Carmarthen Town
Aberystwyth Town
1–2Carmarthen Town18/09/15Aberystwyth Town
Carmarthen Town
0–3Aberystwyth Town01/01/15Carmarthen Town
Aberystwyth Town
5–3Carmarthen Town| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +16 | 27 |
| 1 |  Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +15 | 23 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 23 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 |  Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 |  Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 |  Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 |  Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 |  Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Team Insights
Carmarthen Town- ●Carmarthen Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 10 matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●64% of Carmarthen Town's goals have been scored at home.
- ●71% of Carmarthen Town's goals conceded were conceded at home.
Aberystwyth Town- ●Aberystwyth Town have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Aberystwyth Town have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Aberystwyth Town have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 home matches.
Season Schedule
Carmarthen TownDACardiff Draconians2–2
Cardiff Draconians2–2LHLlantwit Major1–2
Llantwit Major1–2WABaglan Dragons2–1
Baglan Dragons2–1DHYnyshir Albions2–2
Ynyshir Albions2–2LHTrethomas Bluebirds2–3
Trethomas Bluebirds2–3DAllanelli AFC2–2
llanelli AFC2–2–HCaerphilly Athletic23/10
Caerphilly Athletic23/10–ASwansea University28/10
Swansea University28/10–APontardawe Town31/10
Pontardawe Town31/10Aberystwyth TownLHCaerau (Ely)0–1
Caerau (Ely)0–1WAPontypridd Town3–1
Pontypridd Town3–1DHSwansea University0–0
Swansea University0–0WACaerphilly Athletic3–2
Caerphilly Athletic3–2WHllanelli AFC4–0
llanelli AFC4–0WHPontardawe Town1–0
Pontardawe Town1–0–ABaglan Dragons24/10
Baglan Dragons24/10–HTrethomas Bluebirds31/10
Trethomas Bluebirds31/10–ACarmarthen Town07/11
Carmarthen Town07/11Top Scorers
Carmarthen Town7 ⚽
L. Reed6 ⚽
L. Thomas4 ⚽
H. Jones3 ⚽
T. Aylward2 ⚽
J. Rickard1 ⚽
Aberystwyth TownA. Williams6 ⚽
R. Hughes3 ⚽
L. Walsh2 ⚽
T. Evans2 ⚽
D. Browne2 ⚽
D. Owen2 ⚽
Cards Given
Carmarthen TownL. Thomas1 🟨
R. Jenkins1 🟨
Aberystwyth TownL. Walsh2 🟨