Caerau (Ely) vs Newport City — FAW Championship
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Caerau (Ely) and Newport City meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 20 November 2026. Caerau (Ely) have recorded 8 wins from 16 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 63% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 63%; and clean sheets in 31% of games. Newport City have won 20% of their 10 matches, with 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 40%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 20%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.67 for Caerau (Ely) and 1.71 for Newport City. The models give Caerau (Ely) a 48% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Newport City win at 29%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 66% and BTTS at 66%.
Season Statistics
Caerau (Ely)—
Newport City4º
Position
14º
1.90
PPG
1.00
60%
Win %
25%
2.20
Goals / game
1.50
1.80
Conceded / game
1.13
63%
BTTS %
40%
31%
Clean sheet %
20%
63%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Caerau (Ely)
Home (5)
—
Newport City
Away (5)
2.00
PPG
1.60
60%
Win %
40%
2.00
Goals / game
2.20
1.60
Conceded / game
1.00
56%
BTTS %
50%
44%
Clean sheet %
33%
56%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | Newport City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 88% | 89% | 86% | 50% | 25% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 56% | 67% | 43% | 30% | 0% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 44% | 44% | 43% | 20% | 0% | 33% |
| Failed To Score | 13% | 11% | 14% | 50% | 75% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | Newport City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 69% | 56% | 86% | 80% | 100% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 33% | 71% | 30% | 50% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 25% | 22% | 29% | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Clean Sheets | 31% | 44% | 14% | 20% | 0% | 33% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Caerau (Ely) | Newport City | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 | 38% | 30% |
| BTTS | 63% | 40% |
| BTTS & Win | 25% | 10% |
| BTTS & Draw | 13% | 10% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 56% | 30% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 6% | 20% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Caerau (Ely) | Newport City | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 33% | 20% |
| Draw 1st Half | 47% | 30% |
| Loss 1st Half | 20% | 50% |
| Scored 1st Half | 47% | 20% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 33% | 60% |
| Win 2nd Half | 47% | 50% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 20% | 20% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 33% | 30% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 67% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 40% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 60% | 70% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 27% | 50% |
Recent Venue Form
Caerau (Ely) (H)W
Afan Lido2–0
Afan Lido2–0W
llanelli AFC3–0
llanelli AFC3–0W
Treowen Stars3–2
Treowen Stars3–2L
Swansea University1–5
Swansea University1–5D
Ynyshir Albions1–1
Ynyshir Albions1–1D
Barnstaple Town4–4
Barnstaple Town4–4Newport City (A)L
Caerphilly Athletic2–3
Caerphilly Athletic2–3D
Cardiff Draconians1–1
Cardiff Draconians1–1DAfan Lido0–0
Afan Lido0–0W
Pontardawe Town4–0
Pontardawe Town4–0Wllanelli AFC4–1
llanelli AFC4–1L
Cambrian & Clydach0–1
Cambrian & Clydach0–1Head to Head · 4 matches
1
Caerau (Ely)
25%
1
Draws
25%
2
Newport City
50%
100%
Over 1.5
4/4
75%
Over 2.5
3/4
50%
Over 3.5
2/4
100%
BTTS
4/4
09/01/26Caerau (Ely)
Newport City
1–1Caerau (Ely)21/10/25Newport City
Caerau (Ely)
4–3Newport City20/12/24Caerau (Ely)
Newport City
3–1Caerau (Ely)16/08/24Newport City
Caerau (Ely)
1–2Newport City| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +16 | 27 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +15 | 23 |
| 2 |  Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 23 |
| 3 |  Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 |  Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 |  Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 |  Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 |  Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Team Insights
Caerau (Ely)- ●Caerau (Ely) have won their last 5 matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Newport City- ●Newport City have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Newport City have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●92% of Newport City's goals have been scored away.
- ●100% of Newport City's points have been earned away.
- ●Newport City have conceded 67% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Caerau (Ely)WAAberystwyth Town1–0
Aberystwyth Town1–0WHAfan Lido2–0
Afan Lido2–0WACardiff Draconians3–1
Cardiff Draconians3–1WHllanelli AFC3–0
llanelli AFC3–0WHTreowen Stars3–2
Treowen Stars3–2LABaglan Dragons1–3
Baglan Dragons1–3–HLlantwit Major23/10
Llantwit Major23/10–ACaerphilly Athletic30/10
Caerphilly Athletic30/10–HPontypridd Town06/11
Pontypridd Town06/11Newport CityLACaerphilly Athletic2–3
Caerphilly Athletic2–3DACardiff Draconians1–1
Cardiff Draconians1–1DAAfan Lido0–0
Afan Lido0–0LHYnyshir Albions0–1
Ynyshir Albions0–1LHBaglan Dragons0–1
Baglan Dragons0–1WAPontardawe Town4–0
Pontardawe Town4–0–HPontypridd Town23/10
Pontypridd Town23/10–ALlantwit Major31/10
Llantwit Major31/10–HTreowen Stars06/11
Treowen Stars06/11Top Scorers
Caerau (Ely)T. Parker6 ⚽
L. Bishop5 ⚽
D. Griffiths4 ⚽
L. Harling3 ⚽
J. Bahumaid3 ⚽
O. Foote2 ⚽
Newport CityS. Johnson4 ⚽
T. Lynch2 ⚽
2 ⚽
E. Bregua1 ⚽
J. Norris1 ⚽
E. Sage1 ⚽
Cards Given
Caerau (Ely)J. Woodiwiss2 🟨
D. Griffiths1 🟨
Newport City