Pontardawe Town vs Baglan Dragons — FAW Championship
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Pontardawe Town and Baglan Dragons meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 21 November 2026. Pontardawe Town have recorded 3 wins from 10 matches this season (30% win rate), averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 40% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 70%; and clean sheets in 10% of games. Baglan Dragons have won 45% of their 11 matches, with 1.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 55%, Over 2.5 at 55%, and clean sheets at 27%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.76 for Pontardawe Town and 1.44 for Baglan Dragons. The models give Pontardawe Town a 48% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Baglan Dragons win at 28%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 62% and BTTS at 63%.
Season Statistics
Pontardawe Town—
Baglan Dragons12º
Position
5º
1.11
PPG
1.55
33%
Win %
45%
1.67
Goals / game
1.09
1.89
Conceded / game
1.09
40%
BTTS %
55%
10%
Clean sheet %
27%
70%
Over 2.5 %
55%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Pontardawe Town
Home (3)
—
Baglan Dragons
Away (5)
2.00
PPG
2.00
67%
Win %
60%
3.00
Goals / game
1.00
1.67
Conceded / game
0.60
33%
BTTS %
40%
33%
Clean sheet %
60%
100%
Over 2.5 %
40%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Pontardawe Town | Home | Away | Baglan Dragons | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 50% | 67% | 43% | 73% | 67% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 40% | 67% | 29% | 27% | 33% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 30% | 67% | 14% | 9% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 50% | 33% | 57% | 27% | 33% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Pontardawe Town | Home | Away | Baglan Dragons | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 90% | 67% | 100% | 73% | 100% | 40% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 33% | 57% | 27% | 33% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 40% | 33% | 43% | 9% | 17% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 33% | 0% | 27% | 0% | 60% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Pontardawe Town | Baglan Dragons | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 91% |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 9% |
| Over 4.5 | 40% | 0% |
| BTTS | 40% | 55% |
| BTTS & Win | 20% | 27% |
| BTTS & Draw | 10% | 9% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 30% | 45% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 40% | 9% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Pontardawe Town | Baglan Dragons | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 40% | 27% |
| Draw 1st Half | 20% | 45% |
| Loss 1st Half | 40% | 27% |
| Scored 1st Half | 50% | 36% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 80% | 45% |
| Win 2nd Half | 20% | 18% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 30% | 45% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 50% | 36% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 30% | 36% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 55% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 90% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 60% | 36% |
Recent Venue Form
Pontardawe Town (H)W
Treowen Stars6–1
Treowen Stars6–1L
Newport City0–4
Newport City0–4W
Caerphilly Athletic3–0
Caerphilly Athletic3–0L
Cambrian & Clydach0–3
Cambrian & Clydach0–3D
Carmarthen Town1–1
Carmarthen Town1–1D
Cwmbran Celtic3–3
Cwmbran Celtic3–3Baglan Dragons (A)W
llanelli AFC2–1
llanelli AFC2–1L
Cardiff Draconians1–2
Cardiff Draconians1–2WNewport City1–0
Newport City1–0W
Llantwit Major1–0
Llantwit Major1–0D
Trethomas Bluebirds0–0
Trethomas Bluebirds0–0LCambrian & Clydach0–2
Cambrian & Clydach0–2Head to Head · 3 matches
1
Pontardawe Town
33%
1
Draws
33%
1
Baglan Dragons
33%
100%
Over 1.5
3/3
67%
Over 2.5
2/3
0%
Over 3.5
0/3
100%
BTTS
3/3
20/04/24Pontardawe Town
Baglan Dragons
1–2Pontardawe Town29/07/23Baglan Dragons
Pontardawe Town
1–2Baglan Dragons17/09/22Pontardawe Town
Baglan Dragons
1–1Pontardawe Town| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +16 | 27 |
| 1 |  Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +15 | 23 |
| 2 |  Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 23 |
| 3 |  Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 10 |  Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 |  Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 |  Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Team Insights
Pontardawe Town- ●Pontardawe Town have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●Pontardawe Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Pontardawe Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Pontardawe Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Pontardawe Town have lost 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●71% of Pontardawe Town's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●Pontardawe Town have scored 73% of their goals in the first half.
Baglan Dragons- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●75% of Baglan Dragons's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●Baglan Dragons have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Pontardawe TownDALlantwit Major1–1
Llantwit Major1–1WATrethomas Bluebirds3–2
Trethomas Bluebirds3–2WHTreowen Stars6–1
Treowen Stars6–1LASwansea University0–4
Swansea University0–4LAAberystwyth Town0–1
Aberystwyth Town0–1LAAfan Lido0–1
Afan Lido0–1–HYnyshir Albions24/10
Ynyshir Albions24/10–HCarmarthen Town31/10
Carmarthen Town31/10–Allanelli AFC06/11
llanelli AFC06/11Baglan DragonsDHPontypridd Town1–1
Pontypridd Town1–1WAllanelli AFC2–1
llanelli AFC2–1LHCarmarthen Town1–2
Carmarthen Town1–2LACardiff Draconians1–2
Cardiff Draconians1–2WHAfan Lido2–1
Afan Lido2–1LHCaerphilly Athletic0–1
Caerphilly Athletic0–1–HAberystwyth Town24/10
Aberystwyth Town24/10–HTreowen Stars30/10
Treowen Stars30/10–HYnyshir Albions06/11
Ynyshir Albions06/11Top Scorers
Pontardawe TownJ. Dorward4 ⚽
J. Meacock3 ⚽
J. Stone2 ⚽
T. Evans1 ⚽
J. Barrow1 ⚽
T. Jones1 ⚽
Baglan DragonsT. Jones6 ⚽
T. Davies4 ⚽
A. Dubjaga1 ⚽
A. Garland1 ⚽
Cards Given
Pontardawe TownBaglan DragonsK. Parsons1 🟨