Afan Lido vs Caerau (Ely) — FAW Championship
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Afan Lido and Caerau (Ely) meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 27 November 2026. Afan Lido have recorded 3 wins from 13 matches this season (23% win rate), averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 54% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 62%; and clean sheets in 38% of games. Caerau (Ely) have won 53% of their 17 matches, with 2.35 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 59%, Over 2.5 at 65%, and clean sheets at 35%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.90 for Afan Lido and 1.91 for Caerau (Ely). The models give Afan Lido a 33% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Caerau (Ely) win at 44%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 73% and BTTS at 73%.
Season Statistics
Afan Lido—
Caerau (Ely)10º
Position
4º
1.09
PPG
1.90
27%
Win %
60%
1.64
Goals / game
2.20
2.00
Conceded / game
1.80
54%
BTTS %
59%
38%
Clean sheet %
35%
62%
Over 2.5 %
65%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Afan Lido
Home (6)
—
Caerau (Ely)
Away (5)
1.50
PPG
1.80
33%
Win %
60%
2.17
Goals / game
2.40
1.67
Conceded / game
2.00
43%
BTTS %
71%
57%
Clean sheet %
14%
57%
Over 2.5 %
71%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Afan Lido | Home | Away | Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 77% | 71% | 83% | 88% | 90% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 38% | 57% | 17% | 59% | 70% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 15% | 29% | 0% | 47% | 50% | 43% |
| Failed To Score | 23% | 29% | 17% | 12% | 10% | 14% |
Goals Conceded
| Afan Lido | Home | Away | Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 62% | 43% | 83% | 65% | 50% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 62% | 43% | 83% | 47% | 30% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 38% | 43% | 33% | 24% | 20% | 29% |
| Clean Sheets | 38% | 57% | 17% | 35% | 50% | 14% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Afan Lido | Caerau (Ely) | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 85% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 88% |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 53% |
| Over 4.5 | 38% | 41% |
| BTTS | 54% | 59% |
| BTTS & Win | 0% | 24% |
| BTTS & Draw | 8% | 12% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 54% | 53% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 8% | 12% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Afan Lido | Caerau (Ely) | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 15% | 38% |
| Draw 1st Half | 69% | 44% |
| Loss 1st Half | 15% | 19% |
| Scored 1st Half | 46% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 46% | 31% |
| Win 2nd Half | 31% | 50% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 15% | 19% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 54% | 31% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 69% | 69% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 54% | 56% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 54% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 46% | 31% |
Recent Venue Form
Afan Lido (H)L
Penybont2–3
Penybont2–3D
Swansea University5–5
Swansea University5–5D
Newport City0–0
Newport City0–0D
Ynyshir Albions0–0
Ynyshir Albions0–0W
Pontardawe Town1–0
Pontardawe Town1–0W
Llantwit Major5–0
Llantwit Major5–0Caerau (Ely) (A)W
Aberystwyth Town1–0
Aberystwyth Town1–0W
Cardiff Draconians3–1
Cardiff Draconians3–1L
Baglan Dragons1–3
Baglan Dragons1–3W
Trethomas Bluebirds4–2
Trethomas Bluebirds4–2L
Carmarthen Town3–4
Carmarthen Town3–4L
Haverfordwest County AFC1–2
Haverfordwest County AFC1–2Head to Head · 10 matches
4
Afan Lido
40%
1
Draws
10%
5
Caerau (Ely)
50%
100%
Over 1.5
10/10
80%
Over 2.5
8/10
60%
Over 3.5
6/10
70%
BTTS
7/10
02/10/26Afan Lido
Caerau (Ely)
2–0Afan Lido07/03/26Afan Lido
Caerau (Ely)
4–1Afan Lido31/10/25Caerau (Ely)
Afan Lido
3–2Caerau (Ely)22/11/24Afan Lido
Caerau (Ely)
3–0Afan Lido07/09/24Caerau (Ely)
Afan Lido
2–2Caerau (Ely)01/04/24Afan Lido
Caerau (Ely)
3–2Afan Lido17/10/23Afan Lido
Caerau (Ely)
4–1Afan Lido08/08/23Caerau (Ely)
Afan Lido
3–1Caerau (Ely)14/12/19Caerau (Ely)
Afan Lido
2–1Caerau (Ely)24/08/19Afan Lido
Caerau (Ely)
0–2Afan Lido| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +16 | 27 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +15 | 23 |
| 2 |  Pontypridd Town | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 23 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 |  Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 |  Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 |  Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -24 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Team Insights
Afan Lido- ●Afan Lido have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Afan Lido have been undefeated in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Afan Lido have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Afan Lido failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Afan Lido have lost 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●72% of Afan Lido's goals have been scored at home.
- ●75% of Afan Lido's points have been earned at home.
Caerau (Ely)- ●Caerau (Ely) have won their last 5 matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Season Schedule
Afan LidoDHSwansea University5–5
Swansea University5–5LACaerau (Ely)0–2
Caerau (Ely)0–2DHNewport City0–0
Newport City0–0WAPontypridd Town1–0
Pontypridd Town1–0LABaglan Dragons1–2
Baglan Dragons1–2DHYnyshir Albions0–0
Ynyshir Albions0–0–Allanelli AFC23/10
llanelli AFC23/10–ACardiff Draconians31/10
Cardiff Draconians31/10–HCaerphilly Athletic06/11
Caerphilly Athletic06/11Caerau (Ely)WAAberystwyth Town1–0
Aberystwyth Town1–0WHAfan Lido2–0
Afan Lido2–0WACardiff Draconians3–1
Cardiff Draconians3–1WHllanelli AFC3–0
llanelli AFC3–0WHTreowen Stars3–2
Treowen Stars3–2LABaglan Dragons1–3
Baglan Dragons1–3–HLlantwit Major23/10
Llantwit Major23/10–ACaerphilly Athletic30/10
Caerphilly Athletic30/10–HPontypridd Town06/11
Pontypridd Town06/11Top Scorers
Afan LidoL. Griffiths4 ⚽
A. Giardelli4 ⚽
C. Keetch2 ⚽
J. Pascoe2 ⚽
B. Roberts2 ⚽
J. Baker1 ⚽
Caerau (Ely)T. Parker6 ⚽
L. Bishop5 ⚽
D. Griffiths4 ⚽
L. Harling3 ⚽
J. Bahumaid3 ⚽
O. Foote2 ⚽
Cards Given
Afan LidoCaerau (Ely)J. Woodiwiss2 🟨
D. Griffiths1 🟨