Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town — FAW Championship
← Back
vs
–
–
🔒 Pro Feature
Unlock all Match Predictions
Full mathematical models, value detection and advanced filters across every league.
from€8.99/mo
billed annually · cancel anytime
Caerau (Ely) and Carmarthen Town meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 4 December 2026. Caerau (Ely) have recorded 9 wins from 18 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 56% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 61%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. Carmarthen Town have won 33% of their 15 matches, with 2.27 goals scored and 2.47 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 100%, Over 2.5 at 100%, and clean sheets at 0%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.75 for Caerau (Ely) and 1.77 for Carmarthen Town. The models give Caerau (Ely) a 45% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Carmarthen Town win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 68% and BTTS at 69%.
Season Statistics
Caerau (Ely)—
Carmarthen Town4º
Position
8º
1.73
PPG
1.36
55%
Win %
36%
2.00
Goals / game
2.09
1.82
Conceded / game
2.18
56%
BTTS %
100%
33%
Clean sheet %
0%
61%
Over 2.5 %
100%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Caerau (Ely)
Home (6)
—
Carmarthen Town
Away (4)
1.67
PPG
2.00
50%
Win %
50%
1.67
Goals / game
2.00
1.67
Conceded / game
1.50
45%
BTTS %
100%
45%
Clean sheet %
0%
55%
Over 2.5 %
100%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | Carmarthen Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 83% | 82% | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 56% | 64% | 43% | 80% | 73% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 44% | 45% | 43% | 27% | 36% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 17% | 18% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | Carmarthen Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 55% | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 36% | 71% | 80% | 91% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 22% | 18% | 29% | 47% | 64% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 45% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Caerau (Ely) | Carmarthen Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 80% |
| Over 4.5 | 39% | 40% |
| BTTS | 56% | 100% |
| BTTS & Win | 22% | 33% |
| BTTS & Draw | 11% | 20% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 11% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Caerau (Ely) | Carmarthen Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 35% | 27% |
| Draw 1st Half | 41% | 40% |
| Loss 1st Half | 24% | 33% |
| Scored 1st Half | 47% | 73% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 35% | 60% |
| Win 2nd Half | 47% | 40% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 18% | 20% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 35% | 40% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 65% | 73% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 59% | 67% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 65% | 87% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 29% | 73% |
Recent Venue Form
Caerau (Ely) (H)L
Llantwit Major0–2
Llantwit Major0–2W
llanelli AFC6–0
llanelli AFC6–0W
Afan Lido2–0
Afan Lido2–0Wllanelli AFC3–0
llanelli AFC3–0W
Treowen Stars3–2
Treowen Stars3–2L
Swansea University1–5
Swansea University1–5Carmarthen Town (A)D
Cardiff Draconians2–2
Cardiff Draconians2–2W
Baglan Dragons2–1
Baglan Dragons2–1Dllanelli AFC2–2
llanelli AFC2–2W
Newport City2–1
Newport City2–1LTreowen Stars1–4
Treowen Stars1–4WBaglan Dragons7–0
Baglan Dragons7–0Head to Head · 8 matches
0
Caerau (Ely)
0%
3
Draws
38%
5
Carmarthen Town
63%
100%
Over 1.5
8/8
63%
Over 2.5
5/8
63%
Over 3.5
5/8
75%
BTTS
6/8
01/08/26Caerau (Ely)
Carmarthen Town
4–3Caerau (Ely)21/02/26Carmarthen Town
Caerau (Ely)
3–4Carmarthen Town28/11/25Caerau (Ely)
Carmarthen Town
1–1Caerau (Ely)25/01/25Caerau (Ely)
Carmarthen Town
2–0Caerau (Ely)06/08/24Carmarthen Town
Caerau (Ely)
2–2Carmarthen Town10/02/24Caerau (Ely)
Carmarthen Town
1–1Caerau (Ely)22/09/23Carmarthen Town
Caerau (Ely)
2–4Carmarthen Town07/02/15Carmarthen Town
Caerau (Ely)
0–4Carmarthen Town| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +17 | 30 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +15 | 24 |
| 2 |  Pontypridd Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 23 |
| 3 |  Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 |  Llanuwchllyn | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Rhyl | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Llantwit Major | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 13 |  Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 15 | Cardiff Draconians | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -27 | 2 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Team Insights
Caerau (Ely)- ●Caerau (Ely) have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Carmarthen Town- ●Carmarthen Town have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 11 matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have scored in each of their last 11 matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have failed to win in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have lost 4 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Carmarthen Town have scored in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●65% of Carmarthen Town's goals have been scored at home.
- ●75% of Carmarthen Town's goals conceded were conceded at home.
Season Schedule
Caerau (Ely)LHLlantwit Major0–2
Llantwit Major0–2WAAberystwyth Town1–0
Aberystwyth Town1–0WHAfan Lido2–0
Afan Lido2–0WACardiff Draconians3–1
Cardiff Draconians3–1WHllanelli AFC3–0
llanelli AFC3–0WHTreowen Stars3–2
Treowen Stars3–2–ACaerphilly Athletic30/10
Caerphilly Athletic30/10–HPontypridd Town06/11
Pontypridd Town06/11–HNewport City20/11
Newport City20/11Carmarthen TownLHCaerphilly Athletic1–3
Caerphilly Athletic1–3DACardiff Draconians2–2
Cardiff Draconians2–2LHLlantwit Major1–2
Llantwit Major1–2WABaglan Dragons2–1
Baglan Dragons2–1DHYnyshir Albions2–2
Ynyshir Albions2–2LHTrethomas Bluebirds2–3
Trethomas Bluebirds2–3–APontardawe Town31/10
Pontardawe Town31/10–HAberystwyth Town07/11
Aberystwyth Town07/11–APontypridd Town20/11
Pontypridd Town20/11Top Scorers
Caerau (Ely)T. Parker6 ⚽
L. Bishop5 ⚽
D. Griffiths4 ⚽
L. Harling3 ⚽
J. Bahumaid3 ⚽
O. Foote2 ⚽
Carmarthen TownL. Reed7 ⚽
7 ⚽
L. Thomas4 ⚽
H. Jones3 ⚽
T. Aylward2 ⚽
J. Rickard1 ⚽
Cards Given
Caerau (Ely)J. Woodiwiss2 🟨
D. Griffiths1 🟨
Carmarthen TownL. Thomas1 🟨
R. Jenkins1 🟨