Baglan Dragons vs Cardiff Draconians — FAW Championship
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Baglan Dragons and Cardiff Draconians meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 18 December 2026. Baglan Dragons have recorded 7 wins from 14 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 57% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 57%; and clean sheets in 21% of games. Cardiff Draconians have won 33% of their 12 matches, with 1.42 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 67%, Over 2.5 at 58%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.46 for Baglan Dragons and 1.27 for Cardiff Draconians. The models give Baglan Dragons a 42% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Cardiff Draconians win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51% and BTTS at 55%.
Season Statistics
Baglan Dragons—
Cardiff Draconians5º
Position
14º
1.54
PPG
1.09
46%
Win %
27%
1.08
Goals / game
1.27
1.08
Conceded / game
1.73
57%
BTTS %
67%
21%
Clean sheet %
17%
57%
Over 2.5 %
58%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Baglan Dragons
Home (8)
—
Cardiff Draconians
Away (4)
1.25
PPG
0.25
38%
Win %
0%
1.13
Goals / game
0.25
1.38
Conceded / game
1.50
63%
BTTS %
40%
0%
Clean sheet %
20%
63%
Over 2.5 %
40%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Baglan Dragons | Home | Away | Cardiff Draconians | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 71% | 63% | 83% | 75% | 100% | 40% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 36% | 38% | 33% | 42% | 57% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 14% | 13% | 17% | 17% | 14% | 20% |
| Failed To Score | 29% | 38% | 17% | 25% | 0% | 60% |
Goals Conceded
| Baglan Dragons | Home | Away | Cardiff Draconians | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 79% | 100% | 50% | 83% | 86% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 21% | 25% | 17% | 50% | 57% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 7% | 13% | 0% | 25% | 29% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 21% | 0% | 50% | 17% | 14% | 20% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Baglan Dragons | Cardiff Draconians | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 | 0% | 17% |
| BTTS | 57% | 67% |
| BTTS & Win | 36% | 25% |
| BTTS & Draw | 7% | 17% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 58% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 7% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Baglan Dragons | Cardiff Draconians | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 29% | 25% |
| Draw 1st Half | 50% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 21% | 25% |
| Scored 1st Half | 36% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 43% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 29% | 33% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 36% | 17% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 36% | 50% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 43% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 57% | 67% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 57% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 36% | 42% |
Recent Venue Form
Baglan Dragons (H)W
Ynyshir Albions2–1
Ynyshir Albions2–1L
Treowen Stars0–1
Treowen Stars0–1D
Pontypridd Town1–1
Pontypridd Town1–1L
Carmarthen Town1–2
Carmarthen Town1–2W
Afan Lido2–1
Afan Lido2–1L
Caerphilly Athletic0–1
Caerphilly Athletic0–1Cardiff Draconians (A)L
Swansea University0–2
Swansea University0–2L
Trethomas Bluebirds1–3
Trethomas Bluebirds1–3W
Radnor Valley3–1
Radnor Valley3–1DCaerphilly Athletic0–0
Caerphilly Athletic0–0LYnyshir Albions0–1
Ynyshir Albions0–1DTrethomas Bluebirds4–4
Trethomas Bluebirds4–4Head to Head · 3 matches
0
Baglan Dragons
0%
1
Draws
33%
2
Cardiff Draconians
67%
67%
Over 1.5
2/3
67%
Over 2.5
2/3
33%
Over 3.5
1/3
67%
BTTS
2/3
12/09/26Baglan Dragons
Cardiff Draconians
2–1Baglan Dragons14/02/26Baglan Dragons
Cardiff Draconians
3–1Baglan Dragons13/09/25Cardiff Draconians
Baglan Dragons
0–0Cardiff Draconians| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | +19 | 34 |
| 1 | Pontypridd Town | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 27 |
| 3 | Swansea University | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +19 | 24 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 25 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 24 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +10 | 23 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 7 | Afan Lido | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | Carmarthen Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 |  Llanuwchllyn | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pontardawe Town | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Newport City | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 13 |  Rhyl | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 7 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | -31 | 3 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -34 | 1 |
Team Insights
Baglan Dragons- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 9 matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have lost 4 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Baglan Dragons have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●64% of Baglan Dragons's goals have been scored at home.
- ●79% of Baglan Dragons's goals conceded were conceded at home.
Cardiff Draconians- ●Cardiff Draconians have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Cardiff Draconians have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Cardiff Draconians have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Cardiff Draconians failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Cardiff Draconians have scored in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●93% of Cardiff Draconians's goals have been scored at home.
- ●68% of Cardiff Draconians's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●92% of Cardiff Draconians's points have been earned at home.
- ●Cardiff Draconians have scored 57% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Baglan DragonsWHYnyshir Albions2–1
Ynyshir Albions2–1LHTreowen Stars0–1
Treowen Stars0–1DHPontypridd Town1–1
Pontypridd Town1–1WAllanelli AFC2–1
llanelli AFC2–1LHCarmarthen Town1–2
Carmarthen Town1–2LACardiff Draconians1–2
Cardiff Draconians1–2–APontardawe Town21/11
Pontardawe Town21/11–ACaerphilly Athletic27/11
Caerphilly Athletic27/11–APontypridd Town04/12
Pontypridd Town04/12Cardiff DraconiansLASwansea University0–2
Swansea University0–2WHAfan Lido2–0
Afan Lido2–0LATrethomas Bluebirds1–3
Trethomas Bluebirds1–3DHCarmarthen Town2–2
Carmarthen Town2–2DHNewport City1–1
Newport City1–1LHCaerau (Ely)1–3
Caerau (Ely)1–3–ALlantwit Major14/11
Llantwit Major14/11–HAberystwyth Town21/11
Aberystwyth Town21/11–Allanelli AFC27/11
llanelli AFC27/11Top Scorers
Baglan DragonsT. Jones7 ⚽
T. Davies4 ⚽
A. Dubjaga1 ⚽
A. Garland1 ⚽
T. Randall1 ⚽
Cardiff DraconiansL. Gullick4 ⚽
S. Cawley3 ⚽
D. Amin1 ⚽
D. Bowen1 ⚽
C. Egan1 ⚽
H. Treharne1 ⚽
Cards Given
Baglan DragonsK. Parsons1 🟨
Cardiff DraconiansC. Indjai2 🟨
E. Kazadi2 🟨
C. Mace1 🟨
D. Amin1 🟨
H. Johnson1 🟨