Newport City vs Caerphilly Athletic — FAW Championship
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Newport City and Caerphilly Athletic meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 18 December 2026. Newport City have recorded 4 wins from 14 matches this season (29% win rate), averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 57% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 64%; and clean sheets in 14% of games. Caerphilly Athletic have won 36% of their 14 matches, with 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 57%, Over 2.5 at 71%, and clean sheets at 21%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.78 for Newport City and 1.66 for Caerphilly Athletic. The models give Newport City a 42% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Caerphilly Athletic win at 33%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 67% and BTTS at 68%.
Season Statistics
Newport City—
Caerphilly Athletic13º
Position
12º
1.18
PPG
1.08
27%
Win %
31%
1.91
Goals / game
1.31
1.55
Conceded / game
1.85
57%
BTTS %
57%
14%
Clean sheet %
21%
64%
Over 2.5 %
71%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Newport City
Home (5)
—
Caerphilly Athletic
Away (7)
0.40
PPG
1.00
0%
Win %
29%
1.40
Goals / game
1.29
2.00
Conceded / game
2.14
50%
BTTS %
57%
0%
Clean sheet %
14%
67%
Over 2.5 %
86%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Newport City | Home | Away | Caerphilly Athletic | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 64% | 50% | 75% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 50% | 33% | 63% | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 36% | 17% | 50% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Failed To Score | 36% | 50% | 25% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
Goals Conceded
| Newport City | Home | Away | Caerphilly Athletic | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 86% | 100% | 75% | 79% | 71% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 67% | 38% | 57% | 43% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 29% | 33% | 25% | 36% | 14% | 57% |
| Clean Sheets | 14% | 0% | 25% | 21% | 29% | 14% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Newport City | Caerphilly Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Over 4.5 | 43% | 21% |
| BTTS | 57% | 57% |
| BTTS & Win | 21% | 21% |
| BTTS & Draw | 21% | 7% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 57% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 14% | 14% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Newport City | Caerphilly Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 29% | 21% |
| Draw 1st Half | 21% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 50% | 50% |
| Scored 1st Half | 29% | 43% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 71% | 57% |
| Win 2nd Half | 50% | 21% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 21% | 50% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 29% | 29% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 57% | 57% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 57% | 64% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 79% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 57% | 57% |
Recent Venue Form
Newport City (H)D
Treowen Stars2–2
Treowen Stars2–2D
Pontypridd Town4–4
Pontypridd Town4–4L
Ynyshir Albions0–1
Ynyshir Albions0–1L
Baglan Dragons0–1
Baglan Dragons0–1L
Carmarthen Town1–2
Carmarthen Town1–2L
Newport County0–5
Newport County0–5Caerphilly Athletic (A)L
Afan Lido2–3
Afan Lido2–3WCarmarthen Town3–1
Carmarthen Town3–1L
Swansea University1–3
Swansea University1–3D
Trethomas Bluebirds2–2
Trethomas Bluebirds2–2WBaglan Dragons1–0
Baglan Dragons1–0LTreowen Stars0–3
Treowen Stars0–3Head to Head · 1 matches
0
Newport City
0%
0
Draws
0%
1
Caerphilly Athletic
100%
100%
Over 1.5
1/1
100%
Over 2.5
1/1
100%
Over 3.5
1/1
100%
BTTS
1/1
09/10/26Newport City
Caerphilly Athletic
3–2Newport City| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | +19 | 34 |
| 1 | Pontypridd Town | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 27 |
| 3 | Swansea University | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +19 | 24 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 25 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 24 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +10 | 23 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 7 | Afan Lido | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | Carmarthen Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 |  Llanuwchllyn | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pontardawe Town | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | Newport City | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 13 |  Rhyl | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 7 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | -31 | 3 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -34 | 1 |
Team Insights
Newport City- ●Newport City have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●Newport City failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Newport City have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Newport City have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Newport City have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Newport City have failed to win in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Newport City failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Newport City failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Newport City have won 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Newport City have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●67% of Newport City's goals have been scored away.
- ●85% of Newport City's points have been earned away.
- ●Newport City have conceded 65% of their goals in the first half.
Caerphilly Athletic- ●Caerphilly Athletic failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Caerphilly Athletic have scored in 5 of their 7 away matches.
Season Schedule
Newport CityDHTreowen Stars2–2
Treowen Stars2–2WALlantwit Major3–2
Llantwit Major3–2DHPontypridd Town4–4
Pontypridd Town4–4LACaerphilly Athletic2–3
Caerphilly Athletic2–3DACardiff Draconians1–1
Cardiff Draconians1–1DAAfan Lido0–0
Afan Lido0–0–ACaerau (Ely)20/11
Caerau (Ely)20/11–HPontardawe Town27/11
Pontardawe Town27/11–HCardiff Draconians04/12
Cardiff Draconians04/12Caerphilly AthleticLAAfan Lido2–3
Afan Lido2–3LHCaerau (Ely)0–1
Caerau (Ely)0–1WACarmarthen Town3–1
Carmarthen Town3–1WHNewport City3–2
Newport City3–2LASwansea University1–3
Swansea University1–3LHPontypridd Town1–2
Pontypridd Town1–2–Hllanelli AFC20/11
llanelli AFC20/11–HBaglan Dragons27/11
Baglan Dragons27/11–HSwansea University04/12
Swansea University04/12Top Scorers
Newport CityS. Johnson10 ⚽
2 ⚽
M. Graham2 ⚽
T. Lynch2 ⚽
E. Bregua1 ⚽
R. Booth1 ⚽
Caerphilly AthleticF. Skiverton5 ⚽
D. Perrett4 ⚽
L. Reed2 ⚽
T. Jordan2 ⚽
E. Humphries2 ⚽
J. Darby1 ⚽
Cards Given
Newport CityK. Marsh-Brown1 🟨
Caerphilly Athletic