Swansea University vs Caerau (Ely) — FAW Championship
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Swansea University and Caerau (Ely) meet in the FAW Championship 2026 season on 18 December 2026. Swansea University have recorded 7 wins from 11 matches this season (64% win rate), averaging 3.09 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 45% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 82%; and clean sheets in 55% of games. Caerau (Ely) have won 50% of their 20 matches, with 2.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 55%, Over 2.5 at 60%, and clean sheets at 35%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.15 for Swansea University and 1.62 for Caerau (Ely). The models give Swansea University a 48% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Caerau (Ely) win at 28%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 73% and BTTS at 71%.
Season Statistics
Swansea University—
Caerau (Ely)3º
Position
4º
2.18
PPG
1.69
64%
Win %
54%
3.09
Goals / game
1.85
1.36
Conceded / game
1.77
45%
BTTS %
55%
55%
Clean sheet %
35%
82%
Over 2.5 %
60%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Swansea University
Home (5)
—
Caerau (Ely)
Away (6)
2.60
PPG
2.00
80%
Win %
67%
3.20
Goals / game
2.17
1.00
Conceded / game
1.67
40%
BTTS %
63%
60%
Clean sheet %
25%
80%
Over 2.5 %
63%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Swansea University | Home | Away | Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 91% | 100% | 83% | 85% | 83% | 88% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 91% | 100% | 83% | 50% | 58% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 73% | 80% | 67% | 40% | 42% | 38% |
| Failed To Score | 9% | 0% | 17% | 15% | 17% | 13% |
Goals Conceded
| Swansea University | Home | Away | Caerau (Ely) | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 45% | 40% | 50% | 65% | 58% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 27% | 20% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 27% | 20% | 33% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clean Sheets | 55% | 60% | 50% | 35% | 42% | 25% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Swansea University | Caerau (Ely) | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91% | 95% |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 85% |
| Over 2.5 | 82% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 | 36% | 35% |
| BTTS | 45% | 55% |
| BTTS & Win | 18% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 18% | 10% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 45% | 50% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 36% | 10% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Swansea University | Caerau (Ely) | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 55% | 37% |
| Draw 1st Half | 27% | 37% |
| Loss 1st Half | 18% | 26% |
| Scored 1st Half | 73% | 47% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 27% | 37% |
| Win 2nd Half | 64% | 42% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 18% | 21% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 18% | 37% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 82% | 63% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 36% | 58% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 82% | 68% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 36% | 26% |
Recent Venue Form
Swansea University (H)W
Cardiff Draconians2–0
Cardiff Draconians2–0W
Caerphilly Athletic3–1
Caerphilly Athletic3–1W
Pontardawe Town4–0
Pontardawe Town4–0D
Pontypridd Town4–4
Pontypridd Town4–4W
llanelli AFC3–0
llanelli AFC3–0L
Trefelin1–6
Trefelin1–6Caerau (Ely) (A)WCaerphilly Athletic1–0
Caerphilly Athletic1–0W
Aberystwyth Town1–0
Aberystwyth Town1–0WCardiff Draconians3–1
Cardiff Draconians3–1L
Baglan Dragons1–3
Baglan Dragons1–3W
Trethomas Bluebirds4–2
Trethomas Bluebirds4–2L
Carmarthen Town3–4
Carmarthen Town3–4Head to Head · 2 matches
2
Swansea University
100%
0
Draws
0%
0
Caerau (Ely)
0%
100%
Over 1.5
2/2
100%
Over 2.5
2/2
100%
Over 3.5
2/2
100%
BTTS
2/2
21/08/26Swansea University
Caerau (Ely)
1–5Swansea University28/09/19Swansea University
Caerau (Ely)
1–4Swansea University| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | +19 | 34 |
| 1 | Pontypridd Town | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 27 |
| 3 | Swansea University | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +19 | 24 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 25 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 24 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +10 | 23 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 7 |  Afan Lido | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Treowen Stars | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | Carmarthen Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 |  Llanuwchllyn | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 11 | Pontardawe Town | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Newport City | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 13 |  Rhyl | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | -31 | 3 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -34 | 1 |
Team Insights
Swansea University- ●Swansea University have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Swansea University have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Swansea University have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Swansea University have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Swansea University have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Swansea University have won 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Swansea University have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●67% of Swansea University's goals conceded were conceded away.
Caerau (Ely)- ●Caerau (Ely) have won their last 3 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in 6 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have won 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Caerau (Ely) have scored in 6 of their 6 away matches.
Season Schedule
Swansea UniversityWHCardiff Draconians2–0
Cardiff Draconians2–0LAYnyshir Albions2–4
Ynyshir Albions2–4DAAfan Lido5–5
Afan Lido5–5WHCaerphilly Athletic3–1
Caerphilly Athletic3–1DAAberystwyth Town0–0
Aberystwyth Town0–0WHPontardawe Town4–0
Pontardawe Town4–0–HTreowen Stars13/11
Treowen Stars13/11–HTrethomas Bluebirds20/11
Trethomas Bluebirds20/11–ACarmarthen Town27/11
Carmarthen Town27/11Caerau (Ely)LHPontypridd Town1–3
Pontypridd Town1–3WACaerphilly Athletic1–0
Caerphilly Athletic1–0LHLlantwit Major0–2
Llantwit Major0–2WAAberystwyth Town1–0
Aberystwyth Town1–0WHAfan Lido2–0
Afan Lido2–0WACardiff Draconians3–1
Cardiff Draconians3–1–HNewport City20/11
Newport City20/11–AAfan Lido27/11
Afan Lido27/11–HCarmarthen Town04/12
Carmarthen Town04/12Top Scorers
Swansea UniversityC. Coughlin7 ⚽
K. Copp6 ⚽
B. Gibbings6 ⚽
T. Johnston2 ⚽
D. Williams2 ⚽
M. Kelly2 ⚽
Caerau (Ely)T. Parker6 ⚽
D. Griffiths5 ⚽
L. Bishop5 ⚽
L. Harling3 ⚽
J. Bahumaid3 ⚽
O. Foote2 ⚽
Cards Given
Swansea UniversityCaerau (Ely)J. Woodiwiss2 🟨
D. Griffiths1 🟨