UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' — Persha Liga
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UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' meet in the Persha Liga 2026 season on 10 October 2026. UCSA have recorded 3 wins from 11 matches this season (27% win rate), averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 45% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 73%; and clean sheets in 36% of games. Yarud Mariupol' have won 38% of their 13 matches, with 1.62 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 46%, Over 2.5 at 38%, and clean sheets at 23%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.52 for UCSA and 1.52 for Yarud Mariupol'. The models give UCSA a 37% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Yarud Mariupol' win at 37%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 59% and BTTS at 61%.
Season Statistics
UCSAYarud Mariupol'Home vs Away
Goals Scored
| UCSA | Home | Away | Yarud Mariupol' | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 64% | 100% | 43% | 69% | 40% | 88% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 45% | 75% | 29% | 46% | 20% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 36% | 75% | 14% | 23% | 20% | 25% |
| Failed To Score | 36% | 0% | 57% | 31% | 60% | 13% |
Goals Conceded
| UCSA | Home | Away | Yarud Mariupol' | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 64% | 75% | 57% | 77% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 55% | 75% | 43% | 31% | 40% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 27% | 25% | 29% | 15% | 20% | 13% |
| Clean Sheets | 36% | 25% | 43% | 23% | 0% | 38% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| UCSA | Yarud Mariupol' | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 82% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 92% |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 31% |
| Over 4.5 | 18% | 15% |
| BTTS | 45% | 46% |
| BTTS & Win | 9% | 15% |
| BTTS & Draw | 18% | 23% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 45% | 23% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 27% | 15% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| UCSA | Yarud Mariupol' | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 22% | 31% |
| Draw 1st Half | 56% | 46% |
| Loss 1st Half | 22% | 23% |
| Scored 1st Half | 56% | 46% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 44% | 38% |
| Win 2nd Half | 33% | 38% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 44% | 15% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 22% | 46% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 67% | 54% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 56% | 62% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 23% |
Recent Venue Form
UCSA (H)
Chernihiv3–2
Inhulets1–2
Oleksandria4–4
Nyva Ternopil3–0
Bukovyna0–5Chernihiv0–2Yarud Mariupol' (A)
Probiy Horodenka2–0
Lokomotiv Kyiv3–1
Dinaz Vyshhorod6–0
Ahrobiznes Volochysk0–2
Karpaty1–1
Veres Rivne1–1Head to Head · 4 matches
UCSAYarud Mariupol'Yarud Mariupol'UCSA| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +7 | 16 |
| 2 | Oleksandria | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 15 |
| 3 |  Kulykiv | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 14 |
| 4 |  SK Poltava | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 12 |
| 5 |  Prykarpattia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | Inhulets | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 |  Metal Kharkiv | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Yarud Mariupol' | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | UCSA | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Chernihiv | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 |  Polissya II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Nyva Ternopil | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Kolos Kovalivka II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -16 | 2 |
Team Insights
UCSA- ●UCSA have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●73% of UCSA's goals have been scored at home.
Yarud Mariupol'- ●Yarud Mariupol' have been undefeated in their last 4 matches.
- ●Yarud Mariupol' have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●67% of Yarud Mariupol''s goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●60% of Yarud Mariupol''s points have been earned away.
Season Schedule
UCSAChernihiv3–2Metal Kharkiv1–3Inhulets1–2SK Poltava0–0Nyva Ternopil0–1Oleksandria4–4Prykarpattia20/09Viktoriya Mykolaivka26/09Ahrobiznes Volochysk03/10Yarud Mariupol'Probiy Horodenka2–0Kulykiv1–1Lokomotiv Kyiv3–1Kolos Kovalivka II3–1SK Poltava0–3Ahrobiznes Volochysk0–2Polissya II20/09Oleksandria26/09Nyva Ternopil03/10Top Scorers
UCSAYarud Mariupol'Cards Given
UCSAYarud Mariupol'