Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' — Persha Liga
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Chernihiv and Yarud Mariupol' meet in the Persha Liga 2026 season on 31 October 2026. Chernihiv have recorded 4 wins from 14 matches this season (29% win rate), averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 71% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 14% of games. Yarud Mariupol' have won 41% of their 17 matches, with 1.53 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 53%, Over 2.5 at 41%, and clean sheets at 24%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.27 for Chernihiv and 1.30 for Yarud Mariupol'. The models give Chernihiv a 34% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Yarud Mariupol' win at 39%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48% and BTTS at 53%.
Season Statistics
Chernihiv—
Yarud Mariupol'13º
Position
6º
1.00
PPG
1.64
20%
Win %
45%
1.10
Goals / game
1.27
1.40
Conceded / game
1.09
71%
BTTS %
53%
14%
Clean sheet %
24%
50%
Over 2.5 %
41%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Chernihiv
Home (3)
—
Yarud Mariupol'
Away (5)
1.67
PPG
2.00
33%
Win %
60%
1.33
Goals / game
1.60
1.00
Conceded / game
1.00
67%
BTTS %
60%
33%
Clean sheet %
30%
33%
Over 2.5 %
40%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Chernihiv | Home | Away | Yarud Mariupol' | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 86% | 100% | 82% | 71% | 43% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 43% | 33% | 45% | 47% | 29% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 7% | 0% | 9% | 18% | 14% | 20% |
| Failed To Score | 14% | 0% | 18% | 29% | 57% | 10% |
Goals Conceded
| Chernihiv | Home | Away | Yarud Mariupol' | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 86% | 67% | 91% | 76% | 86% | 70% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 33% | 55% | 24% | 29% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 21% | 0% | 27% | 12% | 14% | 10% |
| Clean Sheets | 14% | 33% | 9% | 24% | 14% | 30% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Chernihiv | Yarud Mariupol' | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 88% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 24% |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 12% |
| BTTS | 71% | 53% |
| BTTS & Win | 14% | 24% |
| BTTS & Draw | 29% | 24% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 29% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 12% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Chernihiv | Yarud Mariupol' | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 23% | 29% |
| Draw 1st Half | 54% | 41% |
| Loss 1st Half | 23% | 29% |
| Scored 1st Half | 31% | 41% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 31% | 41% |
| Win 2nd Half | 23% | 41% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 31% | 24% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 46% | 35% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 69% | 59% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 69% | 53% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 54% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 15% | 18% |
Recent Venue Form
Chernihiv (H)W
Nyva Ternopil1–0
Nyva Ternopil1–0D
Polissya II2–2
Polissya II2–2D
Kulykiv1–1
Kulykiv1–1L
Metal Kharkiv1–2
Metal Kharkiv1–2L
Inhulets1–2
Inhulets1–2L
Dynamo Kyiv1–3
Dynamo Kyiv1–3Yarud Mariupol' (A)W
UCSA2–1
UCSA2–1D
Oleksandria1–1
Oleksandria1–1W
Probiy Horodenka2–0
Probiy Horodenka2–0W
Lokomotiv Kyiv3–1
Lokomotiv Kyiv3–1W
Dinaz Vyshhorod6–0
Dinaz Vyshhorod6–0L
Ahrobiznes Volochysk0–2
Ahrobiznes Volochysk0–2Head to Head · 7 matches
1
Chernihiv
14%
2
Draws
29%
4
Yarud Mariupol'
57%
57%
Over 1.5
4/7
43%
Over 2.5
3/7
29%
Over 3.5
2/7
57%
BTTS
4/7
21/03/26Yarud Mariupol'
Chernihiv
1–4Yarud Mariupol'18/03/26Yarud Mariupol'
Chernihiv
0–0Yarud Mariupol'31/08/25Chernihiv
Yarud Mariupol'
1–0Chernihiv22/10/23Chernihiv
Yarud Mariupol'
3–1Chernihiv13/09/23Yarud Mariupol'
Chernihiv
0–1Yarud Mariupol'07/05/23Chernihiv
Yarud Mariupol'
1–1Chernihiv08/04/23Yarud Mariupol'
Chernihiv
2–1Yarud Mariupol'| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +6 | 21 |
| 2 | Kulykiv | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 20 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |  SK Poltava | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 18 |
| 6 | Yarud Mariupol' | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 18 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Prykarpattia | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | Metal Kharkiv | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Nyva Ternopil | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | Inhulets | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |  Kolos Kovalivka II | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | Chernihiv | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | UCSA | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
Team Insights
Chernihiv- ●Chernihiv have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Chernihiv failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Chernihiv have scored in 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●64% of Chernihiv's goals have been scored away.
- ●79% of Chernihiv's goals conceded were conceded away.
Yarud Mariupol'- ●Yarud Mariupol' have been undefeated in their last 8 matches.
- ●Yarud Mariupol' have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Yarud Mariupol' have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Yarud Mariupol' have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Yarud Mariupol' failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Yarud Mariupol' failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Yarud Mariupol' have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
Season Schedule
ChernihivWAPrykarpattia1–0
Prykarpattia1–0LASK Poltava2–3
SK Poltava2–3LAMetal Kharkiv0–2
Metal Kharkiv0–2LAUCSA2–3
UCSA2–3WHNyva Ternopil1–0
Nyva Ternopil1–0LAOleksandria0–1
Oleksandria0–1–AViktoriya Mykolaivka17/10
Viktoriya Mykolaivka17/10–HAhrobiznes Volochysk24/10
Ahrobiznes Volochysk24/10–HYarud Mariupol'31/10
Yarud Mariupol'31/10Yarud Mariupol'WAUCSA2–1
UCSA2–1DHNyva Ternopil0–0
Nyva Ternopil0–0DAOleksandria1–1
Oleksandria1–1WHPolissya II2–1
Polissya II2–1WAProbiy Horodenka2–0
Probiy Horodenka2–0DHKulykiv1–1
Kulykiv1–1–HInhulets17/10
Inhulets17/10–AMetal Kharkiv24/10
Metal Kharkiv24/10–AChernihiv31/10
Chernihiv31/10Top Scorers
ChernihivA. Novikov3 ⚽
Y. Shalfeev2 ⚽
S. Galoyan2 ⚽
M. Serdyuk2 ⚽
D. Bezborodko2 ⚽
D. Plakhtyr1 ⚽
Yarud Mariupol'S. Kyslenko5 ⚽
A. Remenyak4 ⚽
N. Grytsak3 ⚽
V. Kucherov3 ⚽
V. Sydorenko2 ⚽
O. Synytsya2 ⚽
Cards Given
ChernihivD. Plakhtyr3 🟨
D. Bezborodko3 🟨
P. Shushko2 🟨
O. Zenchenko2 🟨
A. Romanchenko2 🟨
M. Serdyuk1 🟨
Yarud Mariupol'M. Podolyak4 🟨
N. Grytsak3 🟨
K. Tsyurpalevych-Semochko3 🟨
V. Sydorenko3 🟨
P. Orikhovskyi1 🟨
O. Chornomorets1 🟨