Carlisle vs Harrogate Town — National League
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Carlisle and Harrogate Town meet in the National League 2026 season on 28 October 2026. Carlisle have recorded 4 wins from 13 matches this season (31% win rate), averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 77% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 62%; and clean sheets in 8% of games. Harrogate Town have won 67% of their 15 matches, with 2.20 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 87%, Over 2.5 at 87%, and clean sheets at 13%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.99 for Carlisle and 1.75 for Harrogate Town. The models give Carlisle a 46% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Harrogate Town win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 72% and BTTS at 72%.
Season Statistics
Carlisle—
Harrogate Town19º
Position
4º
1.00
PPG
1.90
20%
Win %
60%
1.80
Goals / game
2.40
1.90
Conceded / game
1.70
77%
BTTS %
87%
8%
Clean sheet %
13%
62%
Over 2.5 %
87%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Carlisle
Home (6)
—
Harrogate Town
Away (4)
1.33
PPG
1.50
33%
Win %
50%
2.50
Goals / game
1.75
2.33
Conceded / game
2.00
86%
BTTS %
71%
0%
Clean sheet %
29%
71%
Over 2.5 %
71%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Carlisle | Home | Away | Harrogate Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 85% | 86% | 83% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 54% | 71% | 33% | 73% | 88% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 31% | 29% | 33% | 27% | 38% | 14% |
| Failed To Score | 15% | 14% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Carlisle | Home | Away | Harrogate Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 92% | 100% | 83% | 87% | 100% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 54% | 71% | 33% | 40% | 50% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 15% | 29% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 29% |
| Clean Sheets | 8% | 0% | 17% | 13% | 0% | 29% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Carlisle | Harrogate Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 93% |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 87% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 53% |
| Over 4.5 | 38% | 20% |
| BTTS | 77% | 87% |
| BTTS & Win | 23% | 53% |
| BTTS & Draw | 31% | 13% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 54% | 87% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 8% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Carlisle | Harrogate Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 46% | 40% |
| Draw 1st Half | 31% | 40% |
| Loss 1st Half | 23% | 20% |
| Scored 1st Half | 62% | 60% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 54% | 47% |
| Win 2nd Half | 23% | 67% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 23% | 13% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 54% | 20% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 62% | 87% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 69% | 53% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 85% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 31% | 47% |
Recent Venue Form
Carlisle (H)L
Woking2–5
Woking2–5D
Forest Green1–1
Forest Green1–1D
Southend2–2
Southend2–2W
Scunthorpe4–2
Scunthorpe4–2W
AFC Hornchurch4–1
AFC Hornchurch4–1L
Worthing2–3
Worthing2–3Harrogate Town (A)L
Boreham Wood1–4
Boreham Wood1–4WScunthorpe2–0
Scunthorpe2–0L
Aldershot Town1–3
Aldershot Town1–3W
Wealdstone3–1
Wealdstone3–1W
South Shields2–1
South Shields2–1W
Cleethorpes Town1–0
Cleethorpes Town1–0Head to Head · 12 matches
2
Carlisle
17%
3
Draws
25%
7
Harrogate Town
58%
58%
Over 1.5
7/12
17%
Over 2.5
2/12
8%
Over 3.5
1/12
25%
BTTS
3/12
26/07/25Carlisle
Harrogate Town
0–2Carlisle08/03/25Carlisle
Harrogate Town
1–0Carlisle19/10/24Harrogate Town
Carlisle
1–1Harrogate Town14/11/23Harrogate Town
Carlisle
2–0Harrogate Town08/08/23Carlisle
Harrogate Town
1–0Carlisle04/02/23Harrogate Town
Carlisle
0–1Harrogate Town08/11/22Carlisle
Harrogate Town
3–3Carlisle23/04/22Carlisle
Harrogate Town
3–0Carlisle04/01/22Carlisle
Harrogate Town
1–0Carlisle23/11/21Harrogate Town
Carlisle
0–2Harrogate Town24/04/21Harrogate Town
Carlisle
1–1Harrogate Town16/02/21Carlisle
Harrogate Town
1–0Carlisle| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | +15 | 26 |
| 2 | Southend | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 20 |
| 3 |  AFC Fylde | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 4 | Harrogate Town | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 | Aldershot Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 |  Yeovil Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +5 | 18 |
| 7 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +5 | 18 |
| 8 |  Altrincham | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 9 | Worthing | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 17 |
| 10 |  Sutton Utd | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 | AFC Hornchurch | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Forest Green | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 |  Eastleigh | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 |  FC Halifax Town | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | +2 | 13 |
| 15 | Woking | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 12 |
| 16 |  Barrow | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 12 |
| 17 | Wealdstone | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 18 |  Boston United | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 19 | Carlisle | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 20 | Scunthorpe | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 10 |
| 21 |  Hartlepool | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 22 |  Tamworth | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 |  Solihull Moors | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 4 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
Team Insights
Carlisle- ●Carlisle have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Carlisle failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 10 matches.
- ●Carlisle failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Carlisle have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Carlisle failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Carlisle have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●83% of Carlisle's goals have been scored at home.
- ●74% of Carlisle's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●80% of Carlisle's points have been earned at home.
Harrogate Town- ●Harrogate Town have scored in each of their last 10 matches.
- ●Harrogate Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Harrogate Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Harrogate Town have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●71% of Harrogate Town's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
CarlisleLHWoking2–5
Woking2–5LAEastleigh0–1
Eastleigh0–1DHForest Green1–1
Forest Green1–1DHSouthend2–2
Southend2–2LABoreham Wood1–2
Boreham Wood1–2WHScunthorpe4–2
Scunthorpe4–2–AAFC Fylde29/09
AFC Fylde29/09–AAldershot Town03/10
Aldershot Town03/10–HKidderminster Harriers10/10
Kidderminster Harriers10/10Harrogate TownWHEastleigh4–1
Eastleigh4–1LABoreham Wood1–4
Boreham Wood1–4LHAFC Fylde1–2
AFC Fylde1–2WHTamworth3–1
Tamworth3–1WAScunthorpe2–0
Scunthorpe2–0WHGateshead2–1
Gateshead2–1–AHartlepool29/09
Hartlepool29/09–HAFC Hornchurch03/10
AFC Hornchurch03/10–AWoking10/10
Woking10/10Top Scorers
CarlisleG. Kelly4 ⚽
R. Linney4 ⚽
H. Bunker4 ⚽
M. Azeez3 ⚽
2 ⚽
S. Wearne1 ⚽
Harrogate TownB. Hobson6 ⚽
S. McCoulsky3 ⚽
B. Dolaghan3 ⚽
C. Heffernan3 ⚽
J. Hmami3 ⚽
W. McGowan3 ⚽
Cards Given
CarlisleR. Linney3 🟨
M. Azeez3 🟨
B. Nicholson2 🟨
A. Desbois2 🟨
L. Duru1 🟨
M. Feeney1 🟨
Harrogate TownM. Williams3 🟨
S. McCoulsky2 🟨
W. Burrell2 🟨
A. Baptiste2 🟨
L. Barnes2 🟨
J. Hmami2 🟨