Chorley vs Hereford — National League - North
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Chorley and Hereford meet in the National League - North 2026 season on 7 November 2026. Chorley have recorded 7 wins from 18 matches this season (39% win rate), averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 61% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 67%; and clean sheets in 17% of games. Hereford have won 47% of their 17 matches, with 1.59 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 41%, Over 2.5 at 47%, and clean sheets at 41%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.52 for Chorley and 1.44 for Hereford. The models give Chorley a 39% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Hereford win at 35%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 57% and BTTS at 60%.
Season Statistics
Chorley—
Hereford9º
Position
2º
1.55
PPG
2.09
45%
Win %
64%
1.64
Goals / game
2.00
1.64
Conceded / game
0.55
61%
BTTS %
41%
17%
Clean sheet %
41%
67%
Over 2.5 %
47%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Chorley
Home (6)
—
Hereford
Away (5)
2.17
PPG
2.00
67%
Win %
60%
2.33
Goals / game
1.80
1.50
Conceded / game
0.60
78%
BTTS %
44%
11%
Clean sheet %
44%
89%
Over 2.5 %
44%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Chorley | Home | Away | Hereford | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 72% | 78% | 67% | 82% | 75% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 39% | 56% | 22% | 35% | 38% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 11% | 11% | 11% | 24% | 25% | 22% |
| Failed To Score | 28% | 22% | 33% | 18% | 25% | 11% |
Goals Conceded
| Chorley | Home | Away | Hereford | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 83% | 89% | 78% | 59% | 63% | 56% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 56% | 44% | 24% | 13% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 11% |
| Clean Sheets | 17% | 11% | 22% | 41% | 38% | 44% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Chorley | Hereford | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 12% |
| Over 4.5 | 11% | 12% |
| BTTS | 61% | 41% |
| BTTS & Win | 28% | 6% |
| BTTS & Draw | 11% | 24% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 56% | 18% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 11% | 29% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Chorley | Hereford | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 33% | 35% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 47% |
| Loss 1st Half | 33% | 18% |
| Scored 1st Half | 39% | 41% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 39% | 24% |
| Win 2nd Half | 22% | 41% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 44% | 35% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 33% | 24% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 50% | 65% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 78% | 47% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 72% | 59% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 28% | 12% |
Recent Venue Form
Chorley (H)W
AFC Telford United2–1
AFC Telford United2–1W
Spalding United2–1
Spalding United2–1W
Darlington 18835–2
Darlington 18835–2D
Brackley Town2–2
Brackley Town2–2W
Scarborough Athletic2–1
Scarborough Athletic2–1L
Chester1–2
Chester1–2Hereford (A)D
Bedford Town1–1
Bedford Town1–1L
Stafford Rangers2–3
Stafford Rangers2–3W
Harborough Town3–0
Harborough Town3–0W
Southport1–0
Southport1–0W
Worksop Town3–0
Worksop Town3–0L
Buxton1–2
Buxton1–2Head to Head · 11 matches
5
Chorley
45%
3
Draws
27%
3
Hereford
27%
73%
Over 1.5
8/11
45%
Over 2.5
5/11
36%
Over 3.5
4/11
64%
BTTS
7/11
20/12/25Hereford
Chorley
4–2Hereford23/08/25Chorley
Hereford
1–4Chorley14/12/24Chorley
Hereford
1–0Chorley17/08/24Hereford
Chorley
1–1Hereford09/03/24Chorley
Hereford
0–1Chorley28/10/23Hereford
Chorley
1–2Hereford07/03/23Hereford
Chorley
2–0Hereford06/12/22Chorley
Hereford
1–1Chorley29/01/22Hereford
Chorley
3–2Hereford06/11/21Chorley
Hereford
1–0Chorley21/11/20Chorley
Hereford
2–2Chorley| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Macclesfield | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +8 | 24 |
| 2 | Hereford | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +16 | 23 |
| 3 |  Oxford City | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +14 | 23 |
| 4 | Chester | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +5 | 20 |
| 5 |  South Shields | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 20 |
| 6 |  King's Lynn Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 |  Hebburn Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 18 |
| 8 | Spalding United | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 17 |
| 9 | Chorley | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | Buxton | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Bedford Town | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 |  Hednesford Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 13 |  Marine | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | +1 | 15 |
| 14 | Harborough Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 | Worksop Town | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 16 | Brackley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 15 |
| 17 |  Morecambe | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 14 |
| 18 |  Merthyr Town | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 19 | Scarborough Athletic | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 20 | Southport | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 21 |  Radcliffe | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 22 | AFC Telford United | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 23 | Darlington 1883 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
| 24 |  Spennymoor Town | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 7 |
Team Insights
Chorley- ●Chorley have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Chorley failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Chorley have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Chorley failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Chorley have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Chorley have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Chorley failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Chorley have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Chorley failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●78% of Chorley's goals have been scored at home.
- ●76% of Chorley's points have been earned at home.
Hereford- ●Hereford have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Hereford have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Hereford have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Hereford have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Hereford have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Hereford have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
Season Schedule
ChorleyWHAFC Telford United2–1
AFC Telford United2–1WHSpalding United2–1
Spalding United2–1LAKing's Lynn Town0–2
King's Lynn Town0–2WHDarlington 18835–2
Darlington 18835–2LAOxford City0–4
Oxford City0–4DHBrackley Town2–2
Brackley Town2–2–HBuxton24/10
Buxton24/10–ARadcliffe27/10
Radcliffe27/10–ASpennymoor Town31/10
Spennymoor Town31/10HerefordLHHednesford Town0–1
Hednesford Town0–1DABedford Town1–1
Bedford Town1–1WHSouth Shields6–0
South Shields6–0WAHarborough Town3–0
Harborough Town3–0WHSpennymoor Town2–1
Spennymoor Town2–1WASouthport1–0
Southport1–0–AMacclesfield24/10
Macclesfield24/10–HAFC Telford United27/10
AFC Telford United27/10–HKing's Lynn Town31/10
King's Lynn Town31/10Top Scorers
ChorleyE. Taylor5 ⚽
M. Calveley3 ⚽
J. Hazelhurst3 ⚽
C. M. Rowe2 ⚽
M. Wilson2 ⚽
W. Clarke2 ⚽
HerefordH. Iwunze8 ⚽
B. Phillips6 ⚽
A. Skinner3 ⚽
D. Waldron2 ⚽
C. Cox1 ⚽
L. Spokes1 ⚽
Cards Given
ChorleyHerefordK. Kandola1 🟨