Southport vs Merthyr Town — National League - North
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Southport and Merthyr Town meet in the National League - North 2026 season on 5 December 2026. Southport have recorded 4 wins from 20 matches this season (20% win rate), averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 45%; and clean sheets in 15% of games. Merthyr Town have won 29% of their 24 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 67%, Over 2.5 at 58%, and clean sheets at 21%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.52 for Southport and 1.20 for Merthyr Town. The models give Southport a 42% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Merthyr Town win at 31%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51% and BTTS at 55%.
Season Statistics
Southport—
Merthyr Town23º
Position
16º
0.67
PPG
1.19
13%
Win %
25%
1.00
Goals / game
1.38
2.00
Conceded / game
1.44
50%
BTTS %
67%
15%
Clean sheet %
21%
45%
Over 2.5 %
58%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Southport
Home (7)
—
Merthyr Town
Away (8)
1.14
PPG
0.88
29%
Win %
13%
1.43
Goals / game
1.00
1.43
Conceded / game
1.50
50%
BTTS %
50%
20%
Clean sheet %
20%
40%
Over 2.5 %
40%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Southport | Home | Away | Merthyr Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 55% | 60% | 50% | 83% | 100% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 30% | 40% | 20% | 38% | 57% | 10% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 10% | 10% | 10% | 21% | 29% | 10% |
| Failed To Score | 45% | 40% | 50% | 17% | 0% | 40% |
Goals Conceded
| Southport | Home | Away | Merthyr Town | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 85% | 80% | 90% | 79% | 79% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 55% | 30% | 80% | 46% | 43% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 15% | 0% | 30% | 13% | 7% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 15% | 20% | 10% | 21% | 21% | 20% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Southport | Merthyr Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90% | 96% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 20% | 13% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS & Win | 15% | 13% |
| BTTS & Draw | 15% | 33% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 45% | 46% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 13% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Southport | Merthyr Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 30% | 33% |
| Draw 1st Half | 30% | 42% |
| Loss 1st Half | 40% | 25% |
| Scored 1st Half | 35% | 54% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 55% | 46% |
| Win 2nd Half | 15% | 25% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 35% | 38% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 50% | 38% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 35% | 58% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 70% | 67% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 75% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 35% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
Southport (H)L
AFC Telford United1–2
AFC Telford United1–2L
Radcliffe0–2
Radcliffe0–2D
Spennymoor Town2–2
Spennymoor Town2–2W
Morecambe2–1
Morecambe2–1L
Hereford0–1
Hereford0–1W
Bedford Town4–1
Bedford Town4–1Merthyr Town (A)DRadcliffe3–3
Radcliffe3–3L
Oxford City0–3
Oxford City0–3D
Darlington 18831–1
Darlington 18831–1L
Truro City0–2
Truro City0–2D
Scarborough Athletic0–0
Scarborough Athletic0–0W
Chester1–0
Chester1–0Head to Head · 2 matches
1
Southport
50%
0
Draws
0%
1
Merthyr Town
50%
50%
Over 1.5
1/2
0%
Over 2.5
0/2
0%
Over 3.5
0/2
0%
BTTS
0/2
24/01/26Merthyr Town
Southport
1–0Merthyr Town09/08/25Southport
Merthyr Town
2–0Southport| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Shields | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 32 |
| 2 | Hereford | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +14 | 29 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +15 | 27 |
| 4 |  Macclesfield | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | +10 | 27 |
| 5 |  Hednesford Town | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | +8 | 27 |
| 6 |  King's Lynn Town | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | +6 | 27 |
| 7 |  Buxton | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | +5 | 27 |
| 8 | Chester | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Morecambe | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | +5 | 23 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 22 |
| 11 | AFC Telford United | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 22 |
| 12 |  Spalding United | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | +3 | 21 |
| 13 |  Chorley | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 20 |
| 14 |  Worksop Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 20 |
| 15 |  Hebburn Town | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 20 |
| 16 | Merthyr Town | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Brackley Town | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 19 |
| 18 |  Harborough Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 17 |
| 19 | Scarborough Athletic | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 20 |  Marine | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 16 |
| 21 | Radcliffe | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 16 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -9 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -15 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -15 | 10 |
Team Insights
Southport- ●Southport have failed to win in their last 7 matches.
- ●Southport failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Southport failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Southport failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Southport have lost 6 of their 8 away matches.
- ●67% of Southport's goals have been scored at home.
- ●67% of Southport's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●80% of Southport's points have been earned at home.
Merthyr Town- ●Merthyr Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Merthyr Town failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Merthyr Town have scored in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Merthyr Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Merthyr Town have scored in 8 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Merthyr Town failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Merthyr Town have scored in 6 of their 8 away matches.
- ●64% of Merthyr Town's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
SouthportLASouth Shields1–5
South Shields1–5LHAFC Telford United1–2
AFC Telford United1–2DAKing's Lynn Town0–0
King's Lynn Town0–0LHRadcliffe0–2
Radcliffe0–2LAHarborough Town0–1
Harborough Town0–1DHSpennymoor Town2–2
Spennymoor Town2–2–HBrackley Town21/11
Brackley Town21/11–ADarlington 188324/11
Darlington 188324/11–AOxford City28/11
Oxford City28/11Merthyr TownWHHebburn Town4–1
Hebburn Town4–1DARadcliffe3–3
Radcliffe3–3LAOxford City0–3
Oxford City0–3LHMorecambe1–3
Morecambe1–3DHKing's Lynn Town1–1
King's Lynn Town1–1DADarlington 18831–1
Darlington 18831–1–ASpalding United21/11
Spalding United21/11–HBedford Town24/11
Bedford Town24/11–HWorksop Town28/11
Worksop Town28/11Top Scorers
SouthportD. Ogwuru3 ⚽
S. Solomon3 ⚽
L. Burgess3 ⚽
A. Moseley2 ⚽
M. McKenzie2 ⚽
T. Lavelle2 ⚽
Merthyr TownS. Pearson5 ⚽
K. Simpson4 ⚽
K. Evans3 ⚽
B. Margetson3 ⚽
E. Watts3 ⚽
J. Maddox2 ⚽
Cards Given
SouthportD. Lloyd1 🟨
H. Perritt1 🟨
L. Burgess1 🟨
Merthyr TownA. Livermore2 🟨
J. Williams1 🟨
W. Spiers1 🟨