Dover vs Chelmsford City — National League - South
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Dover and Chelmsford City meet in the National League - South 2026 season on 27 October 2026. Dover have recorded 8 wins from 16 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 56%; and clean sheets in 25% of games. Chelmsford City have won 36% of their 11 matches, with 1.27 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 64%, Over 2.5 at 18%, and clean sheets at 36%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.54 for Dover and 1.71 for Chelmsford City. The models give Dover a 33% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Chelmsford City win at 41%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 63% and BTTS at 65%.
Season Statistics
Dover—
Chelmsford City8º
Position
14º
1.56
PPG
1.25
44%
Win %
13%
1.67
Goals / game
1.13
1.78
Conceded / game
1.00
50%
BTTS %
64%
25%
Clean sheet %
36%
56%
Over 2.5 %
18%
Home vs Away
Dover
Home (4)
—
Chelmsford City
Away (5)
1.00
PPG
1.00
25%
Win %
0%
2.00
Goals / game
1.40
2.50
Conceded / game
1.40
60%
BTTS %
75%
10%
Clean sheet %
25%
70%
Over 2.5 %
25%
Goals Scored
| Dover | Home | Away | Chelmsford City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 75% | 70% | 83% | 91% | 67% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 44% | 50% | 33% | 18% | 0% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 25% | 30% | 17% | 18% | 0% | 25% |
| Failed To Score | 25% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 33% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Dover | Home | Away | Chelmsford City | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 75% | 90% | 50% | 64% | 33% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 56% | 60% | 50% | 9% | 0% | 13% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 25% | 40% | 0% | 9% | 0% | 13% |
| Clean Sheets | 25% | 10% | 50% | 36% | 67% | 25% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Dover | Chelmsford City | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 91% |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 18% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 18% |
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 9% |
| BTTS | 50% | 64% |
| BTTS & Win | 25% | 9% |
| BTTS & Draw | 25% | 55% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 44% | 18% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 13% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Dover | Chelmsford City | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 50% | 45% |
| Draw 1st Half | 25% | 55% |
| Loss 1st Half | 25% | 0% |
| Scored 1st Half | 63% | 64% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 27% |
| Win 2nd Half | 25% | 18% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 31% | 55% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 44% | 27% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 56% | 36% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 69% | 45% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 88% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 31% | 27% |
Recent Venue Form
Dover (H)W
Folkestone Invicta4–2
Folkestone Invicta4–2L
Maidenhead0–3
Maidenhead0–3D
Braintree3–3
Braintree3–3L
Tonbridge Angels0–1
Tonbridge Angels0–1W
Slough Town5–3
Slough Town5–3D
Carshalton Athletic1–1
Carshalton Athletic1–1Chelmsford City (A)W
Canvey Island1–0
Canvey Island1–0D
Hampton & Richmond1–1
Hampton & Richmond1–1D
Dorking Wanderers3–3
Dorking Wanderers3–3D
Weston-super-Mare1–1
Weston-super-Mare1–1DFolkestone Invicta1–1
Folkestone Invicta1–1D
Hemel Hempstead Town1–1
Hemel Hempstead Town1–1Head to Head · 8 matches
2
Dover
25%
4
Draws
50%
2
Chelmsford City
25%
50%
Over 1.5
4/8
38%
Over 2.5
3/8
25%
Over 3.5
2/8
50%
BTTS
4/8
21/03/26Dover
Chelmsford City
1–2Dover28/10/25Chelmsford City
Dover
0–1Chelmsford City01/04/24Chelmsford City
Dover
1–0Chelmsford City23/10/23Dover
Chelmsford City
3–3Dover18/02/23Chelmsford City
Dover
0–0Chelmsford City07/11/22Dover
Chelmsford City
0–0Dover13/11/12Chelmsford City
Dover
2–4Chelmsford City10/11/12Dover
Chelmsford City
1–1Dover| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maidstone Utd | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +8 | 19 |
| 2 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 17 |
| 3 |  Dagenham & Redbridge | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 |  Salisbury | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +9 | 15 |
| 5 |  Billericay Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Truro City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 14 |
| 8 | Dover | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 10 |  Torquay | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Farnham Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +6 | 12 |
| 13 |  Chesham United | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 14 | Chelmsford City | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 10 |
| 15 |  Horsham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Maidenhead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 18 | Braintree | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 19 |  AFC Totton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 20 |  Farnborough | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 22 |  Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 23 | Slough Town | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
| 24 |  Walton & Hersham | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Team Insights
Dover- ●Dover have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Dover have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●Dover have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Dover have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
- ●Dover have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Dover have won 3 of their 5 away matches.
- ●71% of Dover's points have been earned away.
- ●Dover have scored 60% of their goals in the first half.
Chelmsford City- ●Chelmsford City have been undefeated in their last 8 matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have been undefeated in their last 5 away matches.
- ●Chelmsford City failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Chelmsford City failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Chelmsford City have scored in 5 of their 5 away matches.
- ●78% of Chelmsford City's goals have been scored away.
- ●87% of Chelmsford City's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●Chelmsford City have scored 78% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
DoverWAFarnborough1–0
Farnborough1–0WADagenham & Redbridge1–0
Dagenham & Redbridge1–0LHMaidenhead0–3
Maidenhead0–3DAChesham United2–2
Chesham United2–2DHBraintree3–3
Braintree3–3WAWeston-super-Mare3–2
Weston-super-Mare3–2–HAFC Totton26/09
AFC Totton26/09–HDorking Wanderers10/10
Dorking Wanderers10/10–AWalton & Hersham17/10
Walton & Hersham17/10Chelmsford CityDAHampton & Richmond1–1
Hampton & Richmond1–1DADorking Wanderers3–3
Dorking Wanderers3–3DHSalisbury1–1
Salisbury1–1DAWeston-super-Mare1–1
Weston-super-Mare1–1WHMaidenhead1–0
Maidenhead1–0DAFolkestone Invicta1–1
Folkestone Invicta1–1–HHorsham26/09
Horsham26/09–AChesham United10/10
Chesham United10/10–HFarnham Town17/10
Farnham Town17/10Top Scorers
DoverD. Sheriff6 ⚽
R. Onu3 ⚽
J. Bates3 ⚽
E. Williams2 ⚽
S. Fish1 ⚽
C. Andrews1 ⚽
Chelmsford CityG. Alexander4 ⚽
L. Sery2 ⚽
R. Browne2 ⚽
C. Cooper2 ⚽
H. Barbrook1 ⚽
A. May1 ⚽
Cards Given
DoverR. Charles-Cook1 🟨
Chelmsford City