Vitória de Sernache vs Mafra — Liga 3
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Vitória de Sernache and Mafra meet in the Liga 3 2026 season on 28 November 2026. Vitória de Sernache have recorded 2 wins from 7 matches this season (29% win rate), averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 43% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 71%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Mafra have won 50% of their 10 matches, with 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 60%, Over 2.5 at 60%, and clean sheets at 40%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.25 for Vitória de Sernache and 1.13 for Mafra. The models give Vitória de Sernache a 37% win probability, with a draw at 29% and an Mafra win at 35%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 42% and BTTS at 49%.
Season Statistics
Vitória de SernacheMafraHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Vitória de | Home | Away | Mafra | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 57% | 67% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 43% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 14% | 0% | 25% | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Failed To Score | 43% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Vitória de | Home | Away | Mafra | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 67% | 75% | 60% | 25% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 57% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 43% | 33% | 50% | 10% | 0% | 17% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 33% | 25% | 40% | 75% | 17% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Vitória de | Mafra | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 30% |
| BTTS | 43% | 60% |
| BTTS & Win | 14% | 10% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 20% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 43% | 50% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 29% | 10% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Vitória de | Mafra | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 14% | 20% |
| Draw 1st Half | 57% | 70% |
| Loss 1st Half | 29% | 10% |
| Scored 1st Half | 29% | 70% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 43% | 60% |
| Win 2nd Half | 14% | 40% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 29% | 40% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 57% | 20% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 43% | 70% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 71% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 57% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 29% | 60% |
Recent Venue Form
Vitória de (H)
Varzim2–1
CF Os Belenenses1–3
SC Covilha0–0
Louletano1–1
Oliveira Hospital0–0
Atlético Malveira0–0Mafra (A)
Oliveirense1–2Atlético Malveira3–2
Lusitano Évora 19111–2
Atlético CP1–1
FC Fredericia2–3
Esbjerg2–0Head to Head · 1 matches
Vitória de Sernache| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 15 |
| 1 |  Paredes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 2 |  AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 |  Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 |  Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 |  Leça | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 |  Caldas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 |  Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 |  Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 |  União Santarém | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 9 |  São João Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 10 |  Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Team Insights
Vitória de- ●Vitória de Sernache have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Vitória de Sernache have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Vitória de Sernache have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Vitória de Sernache have lost their last 3 away matches.
- ●Vitória de Sernache have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●77% of Vitória de Sernache's goals conceded were conceded away.
Mafra- ●Mafra have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Mafra have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Mafra have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Mafra have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●67% of Mafra's goals have been scored at home.
- ●86% of Mafra's points have been earned at home.
- ●Mafra have scored 56% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Vitória deCaldas0–2CF Os Belenenses1–3Oliveirense2–3SC Covilha0–0Mafra0–5Louletano11/10União Santarém25/10Lusitano Évora 191101/11MafraOliveirense1–2SC Covilha1–0Lusitano Évora 19111–2Atlético CP1–1Vitória de Sernache5–0CF Os Belenenses11/10Caldas25/10Louletano01/11Top Scorers
Vitória deMafraCards Given
Vitória deMafra