Qarabag vs Sumqayıt — Premyer Liqa
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Qarabag and Sumqayıt meet in the Premyer Liqa 2026 season on 28 November 2026. Qarabag have recorded 13 wins from 21 matches this season (62% win rate), averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 38% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 52%; and clean sheets in 52% of games. Sumqayıt have won 20% of their 10 matches, with 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 80%, Over 2.5 at 60%, and clean sheets at 0%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.89 for Qarabag and 1.31 for Sumqayıt. The models give Qarabag a 59% win probability, with a draw at 22% and an Sumqayıt win at 19%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 62% and BTTS at 62%.
Season Statistics
Qarabag—
Sumqayıt3º
Position
8º
2.43
PPG
1.00
71%
Win %
25%
2.00
Goals / game
1.50
1.00
Conceded / game
1.63
38%
BTTS %
80%
52%
Clean sheet %
0%
52%
Over 2.5 %
60%
6.4
Avg corners
0.0
10.4
Avg shots
0.0
3.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
1.6
Avg yellow cards
0.0
9.3
Avg fouls
0.0
58.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Qarabag
Home (4)
—
Sumqayıt
Away (3)
2.50
PPG
0.33
75%
Win %
0%
2.50
Goals / game
1.33
1.50
Conceded / game
2.00
50%
BTTS %
80%
50%
Clean sheet %
0%
70%
Over 2.5 %
60%
6.4
Avg corners
0.0
10.4
Avg shots
0.0
3.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
1.6
Avg yellow cards
0.0
58.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Qarabag | Home | Away | Sumqayıt | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 81% | 90% | 73% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 57% | 70% | 45% | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 43% | 50% | 36% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 19% | 10% | 27% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Qarabag | Home | Away | Sumqayıt | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 48% | 50% | 45% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 19% | 40% | 0% | 50% | 20% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 14% | 30% | 0% | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 52% | 50% | 55% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Qarabag | Sumqayıt | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 90% |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 | 24% | 30% |
| BTTS | 38% | 80% |
| BTTS & Win | 19% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 10% | 20% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 33% | 60% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 19% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Qarabag | Sumqayıt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 33% | 30% |
| Draw 1st Half | 43% | 10% |
| Loss 1st Half | 24% | 60% |
| Scored 1st Half | 48% | 60% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 33% | 80% |
| Win 2nd Half | 57% | 20% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 33% | 30% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 10% | 50% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 76% | 40% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 24% | 70% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 50% |
Recent Venue Form
Qarabag (H)D
Neftchi Baku3–3
Neftchi Baku3–3W
Safa Baku1–0
Safa Baku1–0W
Araz3–2
Araz3–2L
Twente1–4
Twente1–4W
Şamaxı FK3–1
Şamaxı FK3–1W
Dynamo Kyiv2–0
Dynamo Kyiv2–0Sumqayıt (A)L
Zira2–3
Zira2–3D
Kapaz1–1
Kapaz1–1L
Turan1–2
Turan1–2LZira1–2
Zira1–2LKapaz1–2
Kapaz1–2W
Imisli FK2–0
Imisli FK2–0Team Corners
| Team Corners | Qarabag | Sumqayıt |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 6.4 | 0.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 2.9 | 0.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 71% | 0% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 57% | 0% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 57% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 43% | 0% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 29% | 0% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 29% | 0% |
Head to Head · 63 matches
47
Qarabag
75%
7
Draws
11%
9
Sumqayıt
14%
76%
Over 1.5
48/63
52%
Over 2.5
33/63
33%
Over 3.5
21/63
32%
BTTS
20/63
31/08/26Qarabag
Sumqayıt
0–1Qarabag22/05/26Qarabag
Sumqayıt
3–4Qarabag21/11/25Qarabag
Sumqayıt
2–4Qarabag22/08/25Sumqayıt
Qarabag
0–1Sumqayıt04/05/25Sumqayıt
Qarabag
2–0Sumqayıt03/03/25Qarabag
Sumqayıt
0–2Qarabag16/12/24Sumqayıt
Qarabag
5–0Sumqayıt06/10/24Qarabag
Sumqayıt
0–1Qarabag28/04/24Qarabag
Sumqayıt
1–0Qarabag25/02/24Sumqayıt
Qarabag
2–0Sumqayıt08/12/23Qarabag
Sumqayıt
1–6Qarabag29/09/23Sumqayıt
Qarabag
5–0Sumqayıt22/05/23Sumqayıt
Qarabag
1–2Sumqayıt15/03/23Qarabag
Sumqayıt
0–6Qarabag16/10/22Sumqayıt
Qarabag
3–1Sumqayıt13/08/22Qarabag
Sumqayıt
0–2Qarabag12/05/22Sumqayıt
Qarabag
5–0Sumqayıt10/04/22Qarabag
Sumqayıt
0–3Qarabag07/11/21Qarabag
Sumqayıt
0–4Qarabag20/09/21Sumqayıt
Qarabag
2–0SumqayıtTeam Insights
Qarabag- ●Qarabag have been undefeated in their last 7 matches.
- ●Qarabag have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Qarabag have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Qarabag have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Qarabag have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●71% of Qarabag's goals have been scored at home.
Sumqayıt- ●Sumqayıt failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Sumqayıt have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Sumqayıt have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Sumqayıt have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Sumqayıt failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Sumqayıt failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 5 home matches.
- ●67% of Sumqayıt's goals have been scored at home.
- ●87% of Sumqayıt's points have been earned at home.
- ●Sumqayıt have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
- ●Sumqayıt have conceded 62% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
QarabagDHNeftchi Baku3–3
Neftchi Baku3–3WAImisli FK2–0
Imisli FK2–0WHSafa Baku1–0
Safa Baku1–0DAZira1–1
Zira1–1WHAraz3–2
Araz3–2WASumqayıt1–0
Sumqayıt1–0–A
Sabah FA25/10
Sabah FA25/10–A
Qabala31/10
Qabala31/10–HTuran06/11
Turan06/11SumqayıtLAZira2–3
Zira2–3WHAraz2–1
Araz2–1WHQabala4–1
Qabala4–1DAKapaz1–1
Kapaz1–1DHŞamaxı FK1–1
Şamaxı FK1–1LATuran1–2
Turan1–2–HSafa Baku02/11
Safa Baku02/11–AImisli FK08/11
Imisli FK08/11–HSabah FA20/11
Sabah FA20/11Top Scorers
QarabagO. Kashchuk6 ⚽
J. Mouaddib6 ⚽
R. Cephas5 ⚽
Kady Borges4 ⚽
J. Montiel4 ⚽
M. Jankovic4 ⚽
SumqayıtR. Vasquez3 ⚽
M. Bangre2 ⚽
N. Ahmadzada2 ⚽
Lucas Black1 ⚽
E. Suliman1 ⚽
Jeam1 ⚽
Cards Given
QarabagM. Jankovic4 🟨
Matheus Silva3 🟨
B. Varkonyi3 🟨
C. Makreckis2 🟨
B. Langa2 🟨
S. Lobato2 🟨
SumqayıtLucas Black3 🟨
Renan Santana2 🟨
E. Suliman2 🟨
C. Badolo2 🟨
Keffel2 🟨
N. Ahmadzada2 🟨