Bulgaria · Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 12

Natsional Sofia

17º · 0.85 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 7d 0h

–

Kostinbrod

6º · 1.62 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 7d 0h

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Natsional Sofia and Kostinbrod meet in the Third League - Southwest 2026 season on 4 November 2026. Natsional Sofia have recorded 2 wins from 14 matches this season (14% win rate), averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 64% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 64%; and clean sheets in 14% of games. Kostinbrod have won 54% of their 13 matches, with 1.62 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 31%, Over 2.5 at 54%, and clean sheets at 31%.

Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.36 for Natsional Sofia and 1.26 for Kostinbrod. The models give Natsional Sofia a 38% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Kostinbrod win at 34%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 49% and BTTS at 53%.

Season Statistics

Natsional Sofia

—

Kostinbrod

17º

Position

6º

0.85

PPG

1.62

15%

Win %

54%

1.31

Goals / game

1.62

1.77

Conceded / game

1.08

64%

BTTS %

31%

14%

Clean sheet %

31%

64%

Over 2.5 %

54%

0.0

Avg corners

0.0

Avg shots

0.0

Avg shots on target

0.0

Avg yellow cards

0.0

Avg fouls

0.0

0.0%

Avg possession

0.0%

Home vs Away

Natsional Sofia

Home (6)

—

Kostinbrod

Away (7)

1.00

PPG

1.29

17%

Win %

43%

1.33

Goals / game

0.86

1.67

Conceded / game

1.14

71%

BTTS %

14%

Clean sheet %

29%

71%

Over 2.5 %

43%

0.0

Avg corners

0.0

Avg shots

0.0

Avg shots on target

0.0

Avg yellow cards

0.0

0.0%

Avg possession

0.0%

Goals Scored

	Natsional Sofia	Home	Away	Kostinbrod	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Scored	71%	86%	57%	62%	83%	43%
Over 1.5 Scored	43%	43%	43%	38%	50%	29%
Over 2.5 Scored	14%	0%	29%	31%	50%	14%
Failed To Score	29%	14%	43%	38%	17%	57%

Goals Conceded

	Natsional Sofia	Home	Away	Kostinbrod	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Conceded	86%	86%	86%	69%	67%	71%
Over 1.5 Conceded	64%	71%	57%	23%	17%	29%
Over 2.5 Conceded	36%	29%	43%	15%	17%	14%
Clean Sheets	14%	14%	14%	31%	33%	29%

Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions

	Natsional Sofia	Kostinbrod
Over 0.5	93%	100%
Over 1.5	86%	62%
Over 2.5	64%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	31%
Over 4.5	14%	15%
BTTS	64%	31%
BTTS & Win	7%	23%
BTTS & Draw	29%	0%
BTTS & Over 2.5	57%	31%
BTTS No & Over 2.5	7%	23%

1st Half / 2nd Half

	Natsional Sofia	Kostinbrod
Win 1st Half	7%	31%
Draw 1st Half	43%	38%
Loss 1st Half	50%	31%
Scored 1st Half	50%	31%
Conceded 1st Half	71%	31%
Win 2nd Half	21%	38%
Draw 2nd Half	50%	38%
Loss 2nd Half	29%	23%
Scored 2nd Half	57%	62%
Conceded 2nd Half	57%	54%
Over 0.5 HT	79%	62%
Over 1.5 HT	57%	31%

Recent Venue Form

Natsional Sofia (H)

CSKA Sofia III2–2

Septemvri Sofia II1–2

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa1–3

Slavia Sofia II2–0

Kyustendil1–1

Strumska Slava0–3

Kostinbrod (A)

FK Minyor Pernik0–3

CSKA Sofia III0–1

Belasitsa1–0

Slivnishki geroy3–0

Levski Sofia II2–1

Botev Ihtiman0–1

Third League - Southwest

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	14	10	3	1	+24	33
2	Bansko	12	9	1	2	+11	28
3	Oborishte	12	7	4	1	+13	25
4	Balkan Botevgrad	14	7	1	6	+2	22
5	Strumska Slava	12	6	3	3	+8	21
6	Kostinbrod	13	7	0	6	+7	21
7	Septemvri Sofia II	12	6	1	5	+1	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	14	5	3	6	-3	18
9	Slavia Sofia II	13	5	2	6	+2	17
10	CSKA Sofia III	13	3	8	2	+2	17
11	Botev Ihtiman	12	5	1	6	0	16
12	Belasitsa	14	4	3	7	-3	15
13	Septemvri Simitli	13	3	6	4	-4	15
14	Chavdar Etropole	14	4	2	8	-18	14
15	Levski Sofia II	13	3	4	6	-4	13
16	Kyustendil	12	3	4	5	-5	13
17	Natsional Sofia	13	2	5	6	-6	11
18	Pirin Razlog	14	2	1	11	-27	7