Ovarense vs Guarda — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
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Ovarense and Guarda meet in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B 2026 season on 28 November 2026. Ovarense have recorded 4 wins from 5 matches this season (80% win rate), averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 0% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 20%; and clean sheets in 80% of games. Guarda have won 17% of their 6 matches, with 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 33%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.16 for Ovarense and 0.81 for Guarda. The models give Ovarense a 49% win probability, with a draw at 29% and an Guarda win at 22%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 31% and BTTS at 38%.
Season Statistics
Ovarense
GuardaHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Ovarense | Home | Away | Guarda | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 80% | 67% | 100% | 50% | 67% | 33% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 60% | 33% | 100% | 50% | 67% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 20% | 0% | 50% | 17% | 0% | 33% |
| Failed To Score | 20% | 33% | 0% | 50% | 33% | 67% |
Goals Conceded
| Ovarense | Home | Away | Guarda | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 20% | 33% | 0% | 83% | 100% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 67% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17% | 33% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 80% | 67% | 100% | 17% | 0% | 33% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Ovarense | Guarda | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 | 0% | 33% |
| BTTS | 0% | 33% |
| BTTS & Win | 0% | 0% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 17% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 20% | 17% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Ovarense | Guarda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 80% | 17% |
| Draw 1st Half | 0% | 0% |
| Loss 1st Half | 20% | 83% |
| Scored 1st Half | 80% | 17% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 20% | 83% |
| Win 2nd Half | 40% | 50% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 60% | 50% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 0% | 0% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 40% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 0% | 0% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 20% | 50% |
Recent Venue Form
Ovarense (H)
Os Marialvas0–1
Sousense2–0
União Lamas1–0
SC Covilha2–2
SC Celoricense7–1
São João Ver1–1Guarda (A)União Lamas0–1
Académico do Fundão6–0
Florgrade0–1
Leça2–6
Machico0–1União Lamas1–0| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Machico | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Camacha | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 4 | Florgrade | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 |  Salgueiros | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 |  Sanjoanense | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 |  Estrela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | União Lamas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 |  Cinfães | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Castro Daire | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 |  Beira-Mar | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 |  Alpendorada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Guarda | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 |  Estrela Calheta | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
Team Insights
Ovarense- ●Ovarense have won their last 4 matches.
- ●Ovarense have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Ovarense have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Ovarense have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Ovarense have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Ovarense have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
- ●62% of Ovarense's goals have been scored away.
Guarda- ●Guarda have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●Guarda have lost their last 2 away matches.
Season Schedule
OvarenseEstrela Calheta3–0Sousense2–0União Lamas1–0Castro Daire2–0Beira-Mar11/10Salgueiros25/10Alpendorada01/11GuardaCamacha2–2União Lamas0–1Florgrade0–1Alpendorada0–1Sanjoanense11/10Machico25/10Cinfães01/11Top Scorers
OvarenseGuarda