Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija — J2 League
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Sagan Tosu and Omiya Ardija meet in the J2 League 2026 season on 17 October 2026. Sagan Tosu have recorded 17 wins from 36 matches this season (47% win rate), averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 42% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 36%; and clean sheets in 39% of games. Omiya Ardija have won 46% of their 35 matches, with 1.94 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 77%, Over 2.5 at 71%, and clean sheets at 20%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.74 for Sagan Tosu and 1.61 for Omiya Ardija. The models give Sagan Tosu a 38% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Omiya Ardija win at 37%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 65% and BTTS at 66%.
Season Statistics
Sagan Tosu—
Omiya Ardija15º
Position
4º
1.10
PPG
1.61
30%
Win %
50%
0.90
Goals / game
2.11
1.20
Conceded / game
1.56
42%
BTTS %
77%
39%
Clean sheet %
20%
36%
Over 2.5 %
71%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Sagan Tosu
Home (5)
—
Omiya Ardija
Away (9)
1.80
PPG
1.56
60%
Win %
44%
1.40
Goals / game
2.33
1.20
Conceded / game
2.22
47%
BTTS %
89%
42%
Clean sheet %
11%
42%
Over 2.5 %
67%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Sagan Tosu | Home | Away | Omiya Ardija | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 78% | 89% | 65% | 91% | 88% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 42% | 47% | 35% | 54% | 59% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 11% | 21% | 0% | 29% | 35% | 22% |
| Failed To Score | 22% | 11% | 35% | 9% | 12% | 6% |
Goals Conceded
| Sagan Tosu | Home | Away | Omiya Ardija | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 61% | 58% | 65% | 80% | 71% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 28% | 21% | 35% | 46% | 47% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 8% | 11% | 6% | 11% | 0% | 22% |
| Clean Sheets | 39% | 42% | 35% | 20% | 29% | 11% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Sagan Tosu | Omiya Ardija | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 91% |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 | 6% | 29% |
| BTTS | 42% | 77% |
| BTTS & Win | 11% | 31% |
| BTTS & Draw | 19% | 17% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 31% | 66% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 6% | 6% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Sagan Tosu | Omiya Ardija | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 32% | 41% |
| Draw 1st Half | 53% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 15% | 29% |
| Scored 1st Half | 47% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 26% | 41% |
| Win 2nd Half | 44% | 50% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 26% | 32% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 29% | 18% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 56% | 76% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 41% | 65% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 59% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 21% | 47% |
Recent Venue Form
Sagan Tosu (H)W
Fujieda MYFC1–0
Fujieda MYFC1–0W
Tokyo Verdy2–1
Tokyo Verdy2–1L
Iwaki1–3
Iwaki1–3W
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0W
Kataller Toyama4–0
Kataller Toyama4–0L
Tochigi City1–3
Tochigi City1–3Omiya Ardija (A)L
Urawa2–3
Urawa2–3DTegevajaro Miyazaki1–1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki1–1DFujieda MYFC1–1
Fujieda MYFC1–1D
Blaublitz Akita0–0
Blaublitz Akita0–0L
Gainare Tottori1–3
Gainare Tottori1–3W
Consadole Sapporo4–1
Consadole Sapporo4–1Head to Head · 12 matches
4
Sagan Tosu
33%
6
Draws
50%
2
Omiya Ardija
17%
67%
Over 1.5
8/12
25%
Over 2.5
3/12
8%
Over 3.5
1/12
58%
BTTS
7/12
21/06/25Sagan Tosu
Omiya Ardija
0–0Sagan Tosu15/03/25Omiya Ardija
Sagan Tosu
1–0Omiya Ardija19/08/17Omiya Ardija
Sagan Tosu
3–0Omiya Ardija04/06/17Sagan Tosu
Omiya Ardija
1–1Sagan Tosu25/09/16Sagan Tosu
Omiya Ardija
1–1Sagan Tosu21/05/16Omiya Ardija
Sagan Tosu
0–1Omiya Ardija23/08/14Sagan Tosu
Omiya Ardija
1–3Sagan Tosu17/05/14Omiya Ardija
Sagan Tosu
1–1Omiya Ardija17/08/13Omiya Ardija
Sagan Tosu
2–1Omiya Ardija06/07/13Sagan Tosu
Omiya Ardija
1–1Sagan Tosu15/09/12Sagan Tosu
Omiya Ardija
1–0Sagan Tosu12/05/12Omiya Ardija
Sagan Tosu
1–1Omiya Ardija| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | +24 | 47 |
| 1 |  Vegalta Sendai | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | +17 | 43 |
| 1 | Kataller Toyama | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | +13 | 38 |
| 1 |  Ventforet Kofu | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | +8 | 35 |
| 2 | Blaublitz Akita | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | +9 | 35 |
| 2 |  Albirex Niigata | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | +4 | 35 |
| 2 |  Kagoshima United | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | +8 | 33 |
| 2 | Consadole Sapporo | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | +4 | 31 |
| 3 | Sagan Tosu | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | +10 | 32 |
| 3 |  Tokushima Vortis | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | +14 | 32 |
| 3 |  Shonan Bellmare | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +6 | 31 |
| 3 | Iwaki | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | +4 | 31 |
| 4 | Omiya Ardija | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | +10 | 30 |
| 4 |  Kochi United | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +2 | 30 |
| 4 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 4 |  Yokohama FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | +7 | 29 |
| 5 | Fujieda MYFC | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | +4 | 30 |
| 5 |  Sagamihara | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -2 | 28 |
| 5 |  Ehime FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 27 |
| 6 |  FC Gifu | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 |  Kanazawa | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 27 |
| 6 | Gainare Tottori | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 27 |
| 6 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | +10 | 26 |
| 7 |  Montedio Yamagata | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -5 | 22 |
| 7 |  Oita Trinita | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 |  Nara Club | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -9 | 21 |
| 8 |  Jubilo Iwata | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 25 |
| 8 |  Biwako Shiga | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -13 | 21 |
| 8 | Tochigi City | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -13 | 21 |
| 8 |  Osaka | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 20 |
| 9 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 20 |
| 9 |  Imabari | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 9 |  Fukushima United | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
| 9 |  FC Ryukyu | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -12 | 17 |
| 10 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 19 |
| 10 |  Tochigi SC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 18 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 |  Kitakyushu | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 15 |
Team Insights
Sagan Tosu- ●Sagan Tosu have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have lost their last 3 away matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●78% of Sagan Tosu's goals have been scored at home.
- ●82% of Sagan Tosu's points have been earned at home.
Omiya Ardija- ●Omiya Ardija have been undefeated in their last 10 matches.
- ●Omiya Ardija have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Omiya Ardija have been undefeated in their last 5 away matches.
- ●Omiya Ardija failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 away matches.
- ●Omiya Ardija have conceded 56% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Sagan TosuWHFujieda MYFC1–0
Fujieda MYFC1–0LABlaublitz Akita0–1
Blaublitz Akita0–1LAMontedio Yamagata0–2
Montedio Yamagata0–2LHIwaki1–3
Iwaki1–3LAImabari0–1
Imabari0–1WHTegevajaro Miyazaki2–0
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0–HOmiya Ardija17/10
Omiya Ardija17/10–AAlbirex Niigata21/10
Albirex Niigata21/10–HVanraure Hachinohe25/10
Vanraure Hachinohe25/10Omiya ArdijaWHVanraure Hachinohe3–1
Vanraure Hachinohe3–1DATegevajaro Miyazaki1–1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki1–1WHVentforet Kofu5–1
Ventforet Kofu5–1DAFujieda MYFC1–1
Fujieda MYFC1–1DHOita Trinita0–0
Oita Trinita0–0DABlaublitz Akita0–0
Blaublitz Akita0–0–ASagan Tosu17/10
Sagan Tosu17/10–HKataller Toyama21/10
Kataller Toyama21/10–HYokohama FC24/10
Yokohama FC24/10Top Scorers
Sagan TosuR. Shiohama6 ⚽
K. Nishizawa5 ⚽
T. Takahashi4 ⚽
K. Yoshino3 ⚽
R. Hyon3 ⚽
D. Suzuki3 ⚽
Omiya ArdijaT. Izumi15 ⚽
O. Yamamoto11 ⚽
Caprini10 ⚽
Carlinhos Junior8 ⚽
M. Kojima3 ⚽
K. Sugimoto3 ⚽
Cards Given
Sagan TosuK. Nishizawa4 🟨
K. Kamiyama3 🟨
N. Matsumoto3 🟨
N. Sakai2 🟨
S. Nagasawa2 🟨
S. Ogawa2 🟨
Omiya ArdijaY. Toyokawa4 🟨
Kaua Diniz3 🟨
H. Kato3 🟨
G. Kato3 🟨
Caprini3 🟨
K. Sugimoto3 🟨