Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama — J2 League
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Sagan Tosu and Kataller Toyama meet in the J2 League 2026 season on 7 November 2026. Sagan Tosu have recorded 19 wins from 39 matches this season (49% win rate), averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 46% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 41%; and clean sheets in 36% of games. Kataller Toyama have won 51% of their 35 matches, with 1.89 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 57%, Over 2.5 at 57%, and clean sheets at 34%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.25 for Sagan Tosu and 1.45 for Kataller Toyama. The models give Sagan Tosu a 35% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Kataller Toyama win at 38%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 50% and BTTS at 54%.
Season Statistics
Sagan Tosu—
Kataller Toyama12º
Position
3º
1.17
PPG
1.83
33%
Win %
50%
1.00
Goals / game
1.92
1.25
Conceded / game
0.92
46%
BTTS %
57%
36%
Clean sheet %
34%
41%
Over 2.5 %
57%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Sagan Tosu
Home (6)
—
Kataller Toyama
Away (6)
2.00
PPG
2.50
67%
Win %
83%
1.50
Goals / game
2.00
1.17
Conceded / game
0.50
52%
BTTS %
56%
38%
Clean sheet %
33%
48%
Over 2.5 %
67%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Sagan Tosu | Home | Away | Kataller Toyama | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 79% | 90% | 67% | 86% | 82% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 44% | 52% | 33% | 57% | 53% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 10% | 19% | 0% | 26% | 24% | 28% |
| Failed To Score | 21% | 10% | 33% | 14% | 18% | 11% |
Goals Conceded
| Sagan Tosu | Home | Away | Kataller Toyama | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 64% | 62% | 67% | 66% | 65% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 28% | 19% | 39% | 34% | 41% | 28% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 8% | 10% | 6% | 17% | 18% | 17% |
| Clean Sheets | 36% | 38% | 33% | 34% | 35% | 33% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Sagan Tosu | Kataller Toyama | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 43% |
| Over 4.5 | 5% | 20% |
| BTTS | 46% | 57% |
| BTTS & Win | 15% | 23% |
| BTTS & Draw | 18% | 23% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 36% | 43% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 5% | 14% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Sagan Tosu | Kataller Toyama | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 32% | 43% |
| Draw 1st Half | 51% | 31% |
| Loss 1st Half | 16% | 26% |
| Scored 1st Half | 49% | 57% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 30% | 40% |
| Win 2nd Half | 43% | 49% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 30% | 20% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 27% | 31% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 59% | 57% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 43% | 49% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 62% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 22% | 37% |
Recent Venue Form
Sagan Tosu (H)W
Omiya Ardija2–1
Omiya Ardija2–1W
Avispa Fukuoka2–1
Avispa Fukuoka2–1W
Fujieda MYFC1–0
Fujieda MYFC1–0W
Tokyo Verdy2–1
Tokyo Verdy2–1L
Iwaki1–3
Iwaki1–3W
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0Kataller Toyama (A)WOmiya Ardija3–0
Omiya Ardija3–0W
Ventforet Kofu2–1
Ventforet Kofu2–1W
Montedio Yamagata2–0
Montedio Yamagata2–0W
Jubilo Iwata1–0
Jubilo Iwata1–0WTegevajaro Miyazaki2–1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–1LSagan Tosu0–4
Sagan Tosu0–4Head to Head · 3 matches
2
Sagan Tosu
67%
0
Draws
0%
1
Kataller Toyama
33%
67%
Over 1.5
2/3
67%
Over 2.5
2/3
67%
Over 3.5
2/3
33%
BTTS
1/3
26/08/26Kataller Toyama
Sagan Tosu
4–0Kataller Toyama09/11/25Sagan Tosu
Kataller Toyama
3–1Sagan Tosu23/03/25Kataller Toyama
Sagan Tosu
1–0Kataller Toyama| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | +24 | 47 |
| 1 |  Vegalta Sendai | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | +17 | 43 |
| 1 | Kataller Toyama | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | +13 | 38 |
| 1 | Ventforet Kofu | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | +8 | 35 |
| 2 |  Blaublitz Akita | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | +9 | 35 |
| 2 |  Albirex Niigata | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | +4 | 35 |
| 2 |  Kagoshima United | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | +8 | 33 |
| 2 |  Consadole Sapporo | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | +4 | 31 |
| 3 | Sagan Tosu | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | +10 | 32 |
| 3 |  Tokushima Vortis | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | +14 | 32 |
| 3 |  Shonan Bellmare | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +6 | 31 |
| 3 | Iwaki | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | +4 | 31 |
| 4 | Omiya Ardija | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | +10 | 30 |
| 4 |  Kochi United | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +2 | 30 |
| 4 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 4 |  Yokohama FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | +7 | 29 |
| 5 | Fujieda MYFC | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | +4 | 30 |
| 5 |  Sagamihara | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -2 | 28 |
| 5 |  Ehime FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 27 |
| 6 |  FC Gifu | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 |  Kanazawa | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gainare Tottori | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 27 |
| 6 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | +10 | 26 |
| 7 | Montedio Yamagata | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -5 | 22 |
| 7 |  Oita Trinita | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 |  Nara Club | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -9 | 21 |
| 8 | Jubilo Iwata | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 25 |
| 8 |  Biwako Shiga | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -13 | 21 |
| 8 |  Tochigi City | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -13 | 21 |
| 8 |  Osaka | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 20 |
| 9 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 20 |
| 9 |  Imabari | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 9 |  Fukushima United | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
| 9 |  FC Ryukyu | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -12 | 17 |
| 10 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 19 |
| 10 |  Tochigi SC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 18 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 |  Kitakyushu | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 15 |
Team Insights
Sagan Tosu- ●Sagan Tosu have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have lost their last 4 away matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have lost 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●75% of Sagan Tosu's goals have been scored at home.
- ●86% of Sagan Tosu's points have been earned at home.
Kataller Toyama- ●Kataller Toyama have been undefeated in their last 8 matches.
- ●Kataller Toyama have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Kataller Toyama have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Kataller Toyama have won their last 5 away matches.
- ●Kataller Toyama have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Kataller Toyama have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Kataller Toyama failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Kataller Toyama have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Kataller Toyama have won 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Kataller Toyama have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●73% of Kataller Toyama's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●68% of Kataller Toyama's points have been earned away.
- ●Kataller Toyama have conceded 64% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Sagan TosuLAAlbirex Niigata1–2
Albirex Niigata1–2WHOmiya Ardija2–1
Omiya Ardija2–1WHFujieda MYFC1–0
Fujieda MYFC1–0LABlaublitz Akita0–1
Blaublitz Akita0–1LAMontedio Yamagata0–2
Montedio Yamagata0–2LHIwaki1–3
Iwaki1–3–HVanraure Hachinohe25/10
Vanraure Hachinohe25/10–AJubilo Iwata31/10
Jubilo Iwata31/10–AShonan Bellmare03/11
Shonan Bellmare03/11Kataller ToyamaWAOmiya Ardija3–0
Omiya Ardija3–0DHShonan Bellmare1–1
Shonan Bellmare1–1DHTegevajaro Miyazaki1–1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki1–1WAVentforet Kofu2–1
Ventforet Kofu2–1DHYokohama FC3–3
Yokohama FC3–3WAMontedio Yamagata2–0
Montedio Yamagata2–0–HConsadole Sapporo25/10
Consadole Sapporo25/10–AAlbirex Niigata31/10
Albirex Niigata31/10–HVegalta Sendai03/11
Vegalta Sendai03/11Top Scorers
Sagan TosuR. Shiohama6 ⚽
K. Nishizawa5 ⚽
K. Yoshino4 ⚽
T. Takahashi4 ⚽
R. Hyon3 ⚽
K. Sakamoto3 ⚽
Kataller ToyamaM. Furukawa11 ⚽
T. Yoshihira8 ⚽
A. Kameda6 ⚽
K. Tsuboi6 ⚽
T. Kim6 ⚽
S. Fuseya3 ⚽
Cards Given
Sagan TosuK. Nishizawa4 🟨
S. Nagasawa4 🟨
K. Kamiyama3 🟨
N. Matsumoto3 🟨
N. Sakai2 🟨
S. Ogawa2 🟨
Kataller ToyamaT. Kim7 🟨
S. Fuseya6 🟨
Jung Woo-Young6 🟨
S. Fukazawa5 🟨
S. Okamoto4 🟨
Kang Min-Woo3 🟨