Sagan Tosu vs Vegalta Sendai — J2 League
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Sagan Tosu and Vegalta Sendai meet in the J2 League 2026 season on 21 November 2026. Sagan Tosu have recorded 20 wins from 40 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 45% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 40%; and clean sheets in 38% of games. Vegalta Sendai have won 57% of their 40 matches, with 1.85 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 55%, Over 2.5 at 55%, and clean sheets at 38%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.18 for Sagan Tosu and 1.45 for Vegalta Sendai. The models give Sagan Tosu a 30% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Vegalta Sendai win at 43%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 49% and BTTS at 53%.
Season Statistics
Sagan Tosu—
Vegalta Sendai13º
Position
1º
1.17
PPG
2.11
33%
Win %
61%
1.00
Goals / game
1.78
1.25
Conceded / game
0.83
45%
BTTS %
55%
38%
Clean sheet %
38%
40%
Over 2.5 %
55%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Sagan Tosu
Home (6)
—
Vegalta Sendai
Away (9)
2.00
PPG
2.56
67%
Win %
78%
1.50
Goals / game
1.89
1.17
Conceded / game
0.44
50%
BTTS %
45%
41%
Clean sheet %
45%
45%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Sagan Tosu | Home | Away | Vegalta Sendai | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 80% | 91% | 67% | 83% | 80% | 85% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 45% | 55% | 33% | 50% | 45% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 10% | 18% | 0% | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Failed To Score | 20% | 9% | 33% | 18% | 20% | 15% |
Goals Conceded
| Sagan Tosu | Home | Away | Vegalta Sendai | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 63% | 59% | 67% | 63% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 28% | 18% | 39% | 28% | 30% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 8% | 9% | 6% | 13% | 15% | 10% |
| Clean Sheets | 38% | 41% | 33% | 38% | 30% | 45% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Sagan Tosu | Vegalta Sendai | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 38% |
| Over 4.5 | 5% | 20% |
| BTTS | 45% | 55% |
| BTTS & Win | 15% | 30% |
| BTTS & Draw | 18% | 13% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 35% | 45% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 5% | 10% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Sagan Tosu | Vegalta Sendai | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 34% | 39% |
| Draw 1st Half | 50% | 39% |
| Loss 1st Half | 16% | 22% |
| Scored 1st Half | 50% | 56% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 29% | 44% |
| Win 2nd Half | 45% | 44% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 29% | 36% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 26% | 19% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 61% | 58% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 42% | 36% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 63% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 21% | 39% |
Recent Venue Form
Sagan Tosu (H)W
Vanraure Hachinohe2–0
Vanraure Hachinohe2–0W
Omiya Ardija2–1
Omiya Ardija2–1W
Avispa Fukuoka2–1
Avispa Fukuoka2–1W
Fujieda MYFC1–0
Fujieda MYFC1–0W
Tokyo Verdy2–1
Tokyo Verdy2–1L
Iwaki1–3
Iwaki1–3Vegalta Sendai (A)L
Albirex Niigata1–2
Albirex Niigata1–2W
Montedio Yamagata1–0
Montedio Yamagata1–0WIwaki2–0
Iwaki2–0W
Tochigi City3–1
Tochigi City3–1L
Fukushima United3–4
Fukushima United3–4W
Shonan Bellmare3–1
Shonan Bellmare3–1Head to Head · 27 matches
11
Sagan Tosu
41%
6
Draws
22%
10
Vegalta Sendai
37%
78%
Over 1.5
21/27
44%
Over 2.5
12/27
26%
Over 3.5
7/27
48%
BTTS
13/27
26/10/25Sagan Tosu
Vegalta Sendai
3–2Sagan Tosu15/02/25Vegalta Sendai
Sagan Tosu
0–1Vegalta Sendai29/08/21Sagan Tosu
Vegalta Sendai
0–1Sagan Tosu10/03/21Vegalta Sendai
Sagan Tosu
5–0Vegalta Sendai25/11/20Vegalta Sendai
Sagan Tosu
0–1Vegalta Sendai08/11/20Sagan Tosu
Vegalta Sendai
0–3Sagan Tosu31/08/19Vegalta Sendai
Sagan Tosu
2–1Vegalta Sendai24/04/19Sagan Tosu
Vegalta Sendai
1–1Sagan Tosu06/04/19Sagan Tosu
Vegalta Sendai
3–0Sagan Tosu06/03/19Vegalta Sendai
Sagan Tosu
1–3Vegalta Sendai20/10/18Sagan Tosu
Vegalta Sendai
2–3Sagan Tosu22/07/18Vegalta Sendai
Sagan Tosu
0–1Vegalta Sendai10/09/17Sagan Tosu
Vegalta Sendai
4–1Sagan Tosu17/06/17Vegalta Sendai
Sagan Tosu
1–1Vegalta Sendai01/10/16Vegalta Sendai
Sagan Tosu
2–3Vegalta Sendai30/04/16Sagan Tosu
Vegalta Sendai
0–2Sagan Tosu06/04/16Vegalta Sendai
Sagan Tosu
1–1Vegalta Sendai07/11/15Vegalta Sendai
Sagan Tosu
1–0Vegalta Sendai07/06/15Sagan Tosu
Vegalta Sendai
5–0Sagan Tosu20/09/14Vegalta Sendai
Sagan Tosu
2–1Vegalta Sendai| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | +24 | 47 |
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | +17 | 43 |
| 1 |  Kataller Toyama | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | +13 | 38 |
| 1 |  Ventforet Kofu | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | +8 | 35 |
| 2 |  Blaublitz Akita | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | +9 | 35 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | +4 | 35 |
| 2 |  Kagoshima United | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | +8 | 33 |
| 2 |  Consadole Sapporo | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | +4 | 31 |
| 3 | Sagan Tosu | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | +10 | 32 |
| 3 |  Tokushima Vortis | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | +14 | 32 |
| 3 | Shonan Bellmare | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +6 | 31 |
| 3 | Iwaki | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | +4 | 31 |
| 4 | Omiya Ardija | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | +10 | 30 |
| 4 |  Kochi United | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +2 | 30 |
| 4 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 4 |  Yokohama FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | +7 | 29 |
| 5 | Fujieda MYFC | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | +4 | 30 |
| 5 |  Sagamihara | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -2 | 28 |
| 5 |  Ehime FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 27 |
| 6 |  FC Gifu | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 |  Kanazawa | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gainare Tottori | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 27 |
| 6 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | +10 | 26 |
| 7 | Montedio Yamagata | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -5 | 22 |
| 7 |  Oita Trinita | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 |  Nara Club | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -9 | 21 |
| 8 |  Jubilo Iwata | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 25 |
| 8 |  Biwako Shiga | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -13 | 21 |
| 8 | Tochigi City | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -13 | 21 |
| 8 |  Osaka | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 20 |
| 9 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 20 |
| 9 |  Imabari | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 9 | Fukushima United | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
| 9 |  FC Ryukyu | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -12 | 17 |
| 10 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 19 |
| 10 |  Tochigi SC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 18 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 |  Kitakyushu | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 15 |
Team Insights
Sagan Tosu- ●Sagan Tosu have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have lost their last 4 away matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have scored in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have lost 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●79% of Sagan Tosu's goals have been scored at home.
- ●88% of Sagan Tosu's points have been earned at home.
Vegalta Sendai- ●Vegalta Sendai have been undefeated in their last 6 home matches.
- ●Vegalta Sendai have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Vegalta Sendai failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Vegalta Sendai have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Vegalta Sendai have won 5 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Vegalta Sendai have scored in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●Vegalta Sendai have scored 59% of their goals in the first half.
- ●Vegalta Sendai have conceded 64% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Sagan TosuWHVanraure Hachinohe2–0
Vanraure Hachinohe2–0LAAlbirex Niigata1–2
Albirex Niigata1–2WHOmiya Ardija2–1
Omiya Ardija2–1WHFujieda MYFC1–0
Fujieda MYFC1–0LABlaublitz Akita0–1
Blaublitz Akita0–1LAMontedio Yamagata0–2
Montedio Yamagata0–2–AJubilo Iwata31/10
Jubilo Iwata31/10–AShonan Bellmare03/11
Shonan Bellmare03/11–HKataller Toyama07/11
Kataller Toyama07/11Vegalta SendaiLAAlbirex Niigata1–2
Albirex Niigata1–2WHImabari3–1
Imabari3–1DHTokushima Vortis0–0
Tokushima Vortis0–0WAMontedio Yamagata1–0
Montedio Yamagata1–0WHJubilo Iwata2–1
Jubilo Iwata2–1WAIwaki2–0
Iwaki2–0–HOmiya Ardija31/10
Omiya Ardija31/10–AKataller Toyama03/11
Kataller Toyama03/11–HVentforet Kofu08/11
Ventforet Kofu08/11Top Scorers
Sagan TosuR. Shiohama7 ⚽
K. Nishizawa5 ⚽
K. Yoshino4 ⚽
T. Takahashi4 ⚽
M. Yoshida3 ⚽
K. Sakamoto3 ⚽
Vegalta SendaiH. Iwabuchi7 ⚽
H. Takeda7 ⚽
M. Nakajima6 ⚽
T. Umeki6 ⚽
S. Igarashi4 ⚽
K. Kobayashi4 ⚽
Cards Given
Sagan TosuK. Nishizawa4 🟨
S. Nagasawa4 🟨
K. Kamiyama3 🟨
N. Matsumoto3 🟨
N. Sakai2 🟨
S. Ogawa2 🟨
Vegalta SendaiR. Matsui7 🟨
Y. Sugiyama6 🟨
H. Iwabuchi5 🟨
Mateus Moraes4 🟨
H. Takeda4 🟨
S. Araki4 🟨