Sagan Tosu vs Oita Trinita — J2 League
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Sagan Tosu and Oita Trinita meet in the J2 League 2026 season on 25 November 2026. Sagan Tosu have recorded 21 wins from 43 matches this season (49% win rate), averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 42% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 37%; and clean sheets in 37% of games. Oita Trinita have won 35% of their 40 matches, with 1.20 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 40%, Over 2.5 at 35%, and clean sheets at 40%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.28 for Sagan Tosu and 0.91 for Oita Trinita. The models give Sagan Tosu a 47% win probability, with a draw at 29% and an Oita Trinita win at 25%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 38% and BTTS at 43%.
Season Statistics
Sagan Tosu—
Oita Trinita12º
Position
8º
1.33
PPG
1.47
40%
Win %
33%
1.00
Goals / game
1.20
1.13
Conceded / game
0.80
42%
BTTS %
40%
37%
Clean sheet %
40%
37%
Over 2.5 %
35%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Sagan Tosu
Home (7)
—
Oita Trinita
Away (7)
2.14
PPG
1.00
71%
Win %
14%
1.57
Goals / game
0.43
1.00
Conceded / game
0.71
48%
BTTS %
30%
39%
Clean sheet %
45%
43%
Over 2.5 %
35%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Sagan Tosu | Home | Away | Oita Trinita | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 77% | 87% | 65% | 65% | 80% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 42% | 52% | 30% | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 9% | 17% | 0% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Failed To Score | 23% | 13% | 35% | 35% | 20% | 50% |
Goals Conceded
| Sagan Tosu | Home | Away | Oita Trinita | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 63% | 61% | 65% | 60% | 65% | 55% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 30% | 22% | 40% | 28% | 20% | 35% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 7% | 9% | 5% | 13% | 10% | 15% |
| Clean Sheets | 37% | 39% | 35% | 40% | 35% | 45% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Sagan Tosu | Oita Trinita | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98% | 85% |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 37% | 35% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 20% |
| Over 4.5 | 5% | 13% |
| BTTS | 42% | 40% |
| BTTS & Win | 14% | 10% |
| BTTS & Draw | 16% | 13% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 33% | 30% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 5% | 5% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Sagan Tosu | Oita Trinita | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 32% | 24% |
| Draw 1st Half | 54% | 42% |
| Loss 1st Half | 15% | 34% |
| Scored 1st Half | 46% | 32% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 27% | 42% |
| Win 2nd Half | 44% | 32% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 27% | 47% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 29% | 21% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 59% | 47% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 44% | 37% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 59% | 61% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 20% | 21% |
Recent Venue Form
Sagan Tosu (H)L
Kawasaki Frontale0–2
Kawasaki Frontale0–2W
Vanraure Hachinohe2–0
Vanraure Hachinohe2–0W
Omiya Ardija2–1
Omiya Ardija2–1W
Avispa Fukuoka2–1
Avispa Fukuoka2–1W
Fujieda MYFC1–0
Fujieda MYFC1–0W
Tokyo Verdy2–1
Tokyo Verdy2–1Oita Trinita (A)L
Tegevajaro Miyazaki0–2
Tegevajaro Miyazaki0–2D
Jubilo Iwata0–0
Jubilo Iwata0–0W
Yokohama FC2–1
Yokohama FC2–1D
Consadole Sapporo1–1
Consadole Sapporo1–1DOmiya Ardija0–0
Omiya Ardija0–0L
Roasso Kumamoto0–2
Roasso Kumamoto0–2Head to Head · 14 matches
5
Sagan Tosu
36%
4
Draws
29%
5
Oita Trinita
36%
71%
Over 1.5
10/14
50%
Over 2.5
7/14
43%
Over 3.5
6/14
57%
BTTS
8/14
10/05/26Sagan Tosu
Oita Trinita
0–1Sagan Tosu05/04/26Oita Trinita
Sagan Tosu
0–1Oita Trinita12/07/25Oita Trinita
Sagan Tosu
2–1Oita Trinita29/04/25Sagan Tosu
Oita Trinita
1–0Sagan Tosu18/09/21Oita Trinita
Sagan Tosu
0–0Oita Trinita15/05/21Sagan Tosu
Oita Trinita
1–1Sagan Tosu19/12/20Oita Trinita
Sagan Tosu
2–2Oita Trinita04/07/20Sagan Tosu
Oita Trinita
2–0Sagan Tosu04/08/19Oita Trinita
Sagan Tosu
2–2Oita Trinita04/05/19Sagan Tosu
Oita Trinita
2–0Sagan Tosu20/08/14Oita Trinita
Sagan Tosu
3–1Oita Trinita31/07/13Oita Trinita
Sagan Tosu
3–2Oita Trinita22/05/13Oita Trinita
Sagan Tosu
2–3Oita Trinita06/05/13Sagan Tosu
Oita Trinita
2–4Sagan Tosu| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | +24 | 47 |
| 1 |  Vegalta Sendai | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | +17 | 43 |
| 1 |  Kataller Toyama | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | +13 | 38 |
| 1 |  Ventforet Kofu | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | +8 | 35 |
| 2 |  Blaublitz Akita | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | +9 | 35 |
| 2 |  Albirex Niigata | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | +4 | 35 |
| 2 |  Kagoshima United | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | +8 | 33 |
| 2 | Consadole Sapporo | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | +4 | 31 |
| 3 | Sagan Tosu | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | +10 | 32 |
| 3 |  Tokushima Vortis | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | +14 | 32 |
| 3 |  Shonan Bellmare | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +6 | 31 |
| 3 |  Iwaki | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | +4 | 31 |
| 4 | Omiya Ardija | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | +10 | 30 |
| 4 |  Kochi United | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +2 | 30 |
| 4 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | +7 | 29 |
| 5 | Fujieda MYFC | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | +4 | 30 |
| 5 |  Sagamihara | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -2 | 28 |
| 5 |  Ehime FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 | Roasso Kumamoto | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 27 |
| 6 |  FC Gifu | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 |  Kanazawa | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gainare Tottori | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 27 |
| 6 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | +10 | 26 |
| 7 |  Montedio Yamagata | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -5 | 22 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 |  Nara Club | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -9 | 21 |
| 8 | Jubilo Iwata | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 25 |
| 8 |  Biwako Shiga | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -13 | 21 |
| 8 |  Tochigi City | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -13 | 21 |
| 8 |  Osaka | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 20 |
| 9 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 20 |
| 9 |  Imabari | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 9 |  Fukushima United | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
| 9 |  FC Ryukyu | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -12 | 17 |
| 10 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 19 |
| 10 |  Tochigi SC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 18 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 |  Kitakyushu | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 15 |
Team Insights
Sagan Tosu- ●Sagan Tosu have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have scored in 7 of their 7 home matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 8 away matches.
- ●Sagan Tosu have lost 5 of their 8 away matches.
- ●73% of Sagan Tosu's goals have been scored at home.
- ●75% of Sagan Tosu's points have been earned at home.
Oita Trinita- ●Oita Trinita have been undefeated in their last 7 home matches.
- ●Oita Trinita have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Oita Trinita failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Oita Trinita have scored in 7 of their 8 home matches.
- ●Oita Trinita have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 7 away matches.
- ●83% of Oita Trinita's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Sagan TosuWAShonan Bellmare1–0
Shonan Bellmare1–0LAJubilo Iwata0–2
Jubilo Iwata0–2WHVanraure Hachinohe2–0
Vanraure Hachinohe2–0LAAlbirex Niigata1–2
Albirex Niigata1–2WHOmiya Ardija2–1
Omiya Ardija2–1WHFujieda MYFC1–0
Fujieda MYFC1–0–HKataller Toyama07/11
Kataller Toyama07/11–AConsadole Sapporo15/11
Consadole Sapporo15/11–HVegalta Sendai21/11
Vegalta Sendai21/11Oita TrinitaWHVanraure Hachinohe1–0
Vanraure Hachinohe1–0LATegevajaro Miyazaki0–2
Tegevajaro Miyazaki0–2DHVentforet Kofu1–1
Ventforet Kofu1–1DAJubilo Iwata0–0
Jubilo Iwata0–0WHAlbirex Niigata5–1
Albirex Niigata5–1WAYokohama FC2–1
Yokohama FC2–1–ABlaublitz Akita07/11
Blaublitz Akita07/11–HTochigi City14/11
Tochigi City14/11–AKataller Toyama21/11
Kataller Toyama21/11Top Scorers
Sagan TosuR. Shiohama6 ⚽
K. Nishizawa5 ⚽
K. Yoshino4 ⚽
T. Takahashi4 ⚽
D. Suzuki3 ⚽
K. Sakamoto3 ⚽
Oita TrinitaKim Hyun-woo6 ⚽
S. Utsumoto6 ⚽
K. Arima5 ⚽
Patrick Verhon3 ⚽
M. Kimoto3 ⚽
Y. Nishimura3 ⚽
Cards Given
Sagan TosuK. Nishizawa4 🟨
S. Nagasawa4 🟨
N. Matsumoto3 🟨
K. Kamiyama3 🟨
N. Sakai3 🟨
S. Ogawa2 🟨
Oita TrinitaMatheus Pereira7 🟨
T. Kimoto4 🟨
I. Oda3 🟨
I. Tone3 🟨
M. Kimoto3 🟨
Y. Misao3 🟨