Desenzano Calvina vs Athletic Carpi — Serie C - Girone A
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Desenzano Calvina and Athletic Carpi meet in the Serie C - Girone A 2026 season on 5 December 2026. Desenzano Calvina have recorded 5 wins from 15 matches this season (33% win rate), averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 40% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 33%; and clean sheets in 47% of games. Athletic Carpi have won 29% of their 17 matches, with 1.41 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 65%, Over 2.5 at 71%, and clean sheets at 12%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.27 for Desenzano Calvina and 1.10 for Athletic Carpi. The models give Desenzano Calvina a 42% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Athletic Carpi win at 30%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 42% and BTTS at 48%.
Season Statistics
Desenzano Calvina—
Athletic Carpi12º
Position
15º
1.08
PPG
1.00
25%
Win %
25%
0.83
Goals / game
1.33
1.17
Conceded / game
2.17
40%
BTTS %
65%
47%
Clean sheet %
12%
33%
Over 2.5 %
71%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Desenzano Calvina
Home (5)
—
Athletic Carpi
Away (6)
1.00
PPG
1.17
20%
Win %
33%
0.80
Goals / game
1.17
1.00
Conceded / game
1.67
40%
BTTS %
50%
60%
Clean sheet %
25%
40%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Desenzano Calvina | Home | Away | Athletic Carpi | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 60% | 60% | 60% | 76% | 78% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 20% | 20% | 20% | 41% | 56% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 24% | 44% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 40% | 40% | 40% | 24% | 22% | 25% |
Goals Conceded
| Desenzano Calvina | Home | Away | Athletic Carpi | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 53% | 40% | 60% | 88% | 100% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 20% | 40% | 10% | 65% | 78% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 13% | 20% | 10% | 29% | 44% | 13% |
| Clean Sheets | 47% | 60% | 40% | 12% | 0% | 25% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Desenzano Calvina | Athletic Carpi | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 73% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 47% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 47% |
| Over 4.5 | 7% | 24% |
| BTTS | 40% | 65% |
| BTTS & Win | 13% | 18% |
| BTTS & Draw | 7% | 29% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 33% | 59% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 12% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Desenzano Calvina | Athletic Carpi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 7% | 24% |
| Draw 1st Half | 60% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 33% | 47% |
| Scored 1st Half | 13% | 41% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 40% | 71% |
| Win 2nd Half | 33% | 35% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 67% | 18% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 0% | 47% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 60% | 53% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 33% | 65% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 47% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 20% | 59% |
Recent Venue Form
Desenzano Calvina (H)L
Giana Erminio1–2
Giana Erminio1–2W
Dolomiti Bellunesi2–0
Dolomiti Bellunesi2–0D
Juventus U230–0
Juventus U230–0L
Lecco1–3
Lecco1–3D
Trento0–0
Trento0–0D
Scafatese1–1
Scafatese1–1Athletic Carpi (A)W
Alcione2–1
Alcione2–1L
Pergolettese1–2
Pergolettese1–2L
PRO Vercelli0–2
PRO Vercelli0–2D
Novara2–2
Novara2–2W
Albinoleffe1–0
Albinoleffe1–0L
Union Brescia1–3
Union Brescia1–3| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cittadella | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +13 | 30 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +14 | 25 |
| 3 | Trento | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | +11 | 24 |
| 4 |  Arzignano Valchiampo | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 5 |  Ospitaletto | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +7 | 19 |
| 6 |  Treviso | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +3 | 19 |
| 7 | Alcione | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 | Lecco | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +7 | 17 |
| 9 | Albinoleffe | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 10 | Pergolettese | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 |  Lumezzane | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Desenzano Calvina | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Novara | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | PRO Vercelli | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Athletic Carpi | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 | Giana Erminio | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Juventus U23 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 18 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 19 |  Renate | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 |  Folgore Caratese | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Team Insights
Desenzano Calvina- ●Desenzano Calvina have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Desenzano Calvina have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Desenzano Calvina have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Desenzano Calvina have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 home matches.
- ●Desenzano Calvina failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 away matches.
- ●62% of Desenzano Calvina's points have been earned away.
- ●Desenzano Calvina have conceded 64% of their goals in the first half.
Athletic Carpi- ●Athletic Carpi failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 9 matches.
- ●Athletic Carpi failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Athletic Carpi failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Athletic Carpi failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Athletic Carpi have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Athletic Carpi have scored 56% of their goals in the first half.
- ●Athletic Carpi have conceded 58% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Desenzano CalvinaLANovara0–1
Novara0–1LHGiana Erminio1–2
Giana Erminio1–2LAAlcione1–4
Alcione1–4WHDolomiti Bellunesi2–0
Dolomiti Bellunesi2–0WAFolgore Caratese2–1
Folgore Caratese2–1DHJuventus U230–0
Juventus U230–0–HOspitaletto08/11
Ospitaletto08/11–ARenate14/11
Renate14/11–HAlbinoleffe22/11
Albinoleffe22/11Athletic CarpiLHRenate0–5
Renate0–5WAAlcione2–1
Alcione2–1WHLumezzane3–1
Lumezzane3–1LAPergolettese1–2
Pergolettese1–2LAPRO Vercelli0–2
PRO Vercelli0–2LHArzignano Valchiampo0–3
Arzignano Valchiampo0–3–AFolgore Caratese08/11
Folgore Caratese08/11–HGiana Erminio14/11
Giana Erminio14/11–ADolomiti Bellunesi22/11
Dolomiti Bellunesi22/11Top Scorers
Desenzano Calvina4 ⚽
A. Procaccio2 ⚽
F. Liberati2 ⚽
K. Biondi2 ⚽
L. Ubaldi2 ⚽
C. Santini1 ⚽
Athletic CarpiM. Figoli5 ⚽
F. Casarini5 ⚽
A. Sall4 ⚽
M. Montipo4 ⚽
L. Morosini3 ⚽
F. Puletto3 ⚽
Cards Given
Desenzano CalvinaL. Milani4 🟨
T. Panelli3 🟨
A. De Francesco3 🟨
C. Santini3 🟨
A. Pilati2 🟨
K. Biondi1 🟨
Athletic CarpiF. Desole6 🟨
M. Rossini4 🟨
D. Zagnoni4 🟨
A. Astrologo4 🟨
M. Figoli4 🟨
L. Lombardi3 🟨