Castro vs Guarnizo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
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Castro and Guarnizo meet in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2026 season on 15 November 2026. Castro have recorded 1 wins from 6 matches this season (17% win rate), averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 33% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 33%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. Guarnizo have won 17% of their 6 matches, with 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 83%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 0%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.34 for Castro and 1.24 for Guarnizo. The models give Castro a 34% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Guarnizo win at 40%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48% and BTTS at 53%.
Season Statistics
Castro
GuarnizoHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Castro | Home | Away | Guarnizo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 50% | 33% | 67% | 83% | 67% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 50% | 33% | 67% | 17% | 33% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17% | 33% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 50% | 67% | 33% | 17% | 33% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Castro | Home | Away | Guarnizo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 67% | 67% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 67% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 0% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 17% | 0% | 33% | 17% | 0% | 33% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 33% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Castro | Guarnizo | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 83% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% |
| Over 4.5 | 17% | 17% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS & Win | 0% | 17% |
| BTTS & Draw | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Castro | Guarnizo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 17% | 17% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 50% | 33% |
| Scored 1st Half | 17% | 17% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 17% | 17% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 33% | 33% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 50% | 50% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 33% | 67% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 67% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 17% |
Recent Venue Form
Castro (H)
Tropezón0–2
Atlético Mineros0–2
Solares2–0Tropezón0–2
Gimnástica Torrelavega2–3Guarnizo0–1Guarnizo (A)
Torina1–1
Sámano1–4Atlético Mineros1–2Tropezón0–3
Bezana1–1
Barquereño1–0Head to Head · 12 matches
GuarnizoCastroGuarnizoCastroCastroGuarnizoCastroGuarnizoGuarnizoCastroCastroGuarnizo| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Bezana | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 16 |
| 3 |  Laredo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 4 | Sámano | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 11 |
| 5 |  Revilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 11 |
| 6 |  Cayón | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Torina | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 8 |  Vimenor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 |  Selaya | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Atlético Mineros | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 11 | Guarnizo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Solares | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Castro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 |  Escobedo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 |  Atlético Albericia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 |  Velarde | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Barquereño | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 |  Naval Reinosa | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
Team Insights
Castro- ●Castro have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●Castro have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Castro have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
Guarnizo- ●Guarnizo have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●Guarnizo failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●70% of Guarnizo's goals conceded were conceded away.
Season Schedule
CastroAtlético Albericia2–4Tropezón0–2Atlético Mineros0–2Revilla2–2Solares2–0Selaya0–0Escobedo17/10Naval Reinosa25/10Barquereño01/11GuarnizoBezana1–1Torina1–1Velarde3–1Sámano1–4Cayón0–1Atlético Mineros1–2Laredo17/10Selaya25/10Solares01/11Top Scorers
CastroGuarnizoCards Given
CastroGuarnizo