Mensajero vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
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Mensajero and UD San Fernando meet in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2026 season on 25 October 2026. Mensajero have recorded 3 wins from 6 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. UD San Fernando have won 80% of their 5 matches, with 2.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 0%, Over 2.5 at 60%, and clean sheets at 80%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.46 for Mensajero and 1.05 for UD San Fernando. The models give Mensajero a 45% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an UD San Fernando win at 27%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 46% and BTTS at 50%.
Season Statistics
MensajeroUD San FernandoHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Mensajero | Home | Away | UD San | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 83% | 100% | 50% | 80% | 100% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 33% | 25% | 50% | 60% | 100% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 60% | 100% | 33% |
| Failed To Score | 17% | 0% | 50% | 20% | 0% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Mensajero | Home | Away | UD San | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 50% | 100% | 20% | 0% | 33% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 33% | 50% | 0% | 20% | 0% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 50% | 0% | 80% | 100% | 67% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Mensajero | UD San | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 20% |
| Over 4.5 | 0% | 20% |
| BTTS | 50% | 0% |
| BTTS & Win | 17% | 0% |
| BTTS & Draw | 17% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 60% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Mensajero | UD San | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 67% | 80% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 20% |
| Loss 1st Half | 0% | 0% |
| Scored 1st Half | 67% | 80% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 0% | 0% |
| Win 2nd Half | 17% | 60% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 33% | 20% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 50% | 20% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 50% | 60% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 67% | 20% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 0% | 0% |
Recent Venue Form
Mensajero (H)
San Bartolomé2–2
San Miguel1–0
Tenerife C1–0
Real Murcia1–2
Tamaraceite1–0UD San Fernando1–0UD San (A)
Lanzarote1–0
Unión Sur Yaiza0–2
Laguna de Duero3–0Tamaraceite0–3
Panadería Pulido2–0Mensajero0–1Head to Head · 16 matches
UD San FernandoMensajeroMensajeroUD San FernandoUD San FernandoMensajeroUD San FernandoMensajeroUD San FernandoMensajeroUD San FernandoMensajeroUD San FernandoMensajeroUD San FernandoMensajero| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD San Fernando | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Unión de Tenerife | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | San Miguel | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Panadería Pulido | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Mensajero | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | San Bartolomé | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |  Las Palmas III | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 |  Marino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 7 |
| 9 | Tenerife C | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Los Llanos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 |  Estrella | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Lanzarote | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 |  San Fernando CD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Villa Santa Brígida | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anaza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Laguna de Duero | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 |  Villaverde Norte | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 18 |  Playas Sotavento | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -15 | 1 |
Team Insights
Mensajero- ●Mensajero have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●Mensajero have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
UD San- ●UD San Fernando have won their last 2 matches.
- ●UD San Fernando have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●UD San Fernando have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●UD San Fernando have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●67% of UD San Fernando's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
MensajeroSan Bartolomé2–2Villaverde Norte2–1San Miguel1–0Anaza0–1Tenerife C1–0Las Palmas III17/10Panadería Pulido21/10UD San Fernando25/10UD SanLanzarote1–0Estrella3–0Unión Sur Yaiza0–2Playas Sotavento5–0Laguna de Duero3–0Villa Santa Brígida17/10Real Unión de Tenerife21/10Mensajero25/10Top Scorers
MensajeroUD San