AFC Bournemouth U21 vs Derby County U21 — Premier League 2 Division One
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AFC Bournemouth U21 and Derby County U21 meet in the Premier League 2 Division One 2026 season on 15 January 2027. AFC Bournemouth U21 have recorded 6 wins from 12 matches this season (50% win rate), averaging 2.33 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 92% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 92%; and clean sheets in 8% of games. Derby County U21 have won 20% of their 15 matches, with 1.93 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 80%, Over 2.5 at 87%, and clean sheets at 7%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.21 for AFC Bournemouth U21 and 1.85 for Derby County U21. The models give AFC Bournemouth U21 a 48% win probability, with a draw at 22% and an Derby County U21 win at 30%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 77% and BTTS at 75%.
Season Statistics
AFC Bournemouth U21—
Derby County U2112º
Position
18º
1.43
PPG
1.14
43%
Win %
29%
2.14
Goals / game
2.43
2.57
Conceded / game
2.43
92%
BTTS %
80%
8%
Clean sheet %
7%
92%
Over 2.5 %
87%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
AFC Bournemouth U21
Home (4)
—
Derby County U21
Away (4)
2.25
PPG
1.75
75%
Win %
50%
2.50
Goals / game
2.25
1.75
Conceded / game
1.50
100%
BTTS %
80%
0%
Clean sheet %
10%
100%
Over 2.5 %
80%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| AFC Bournemouth | Home | Away | Derby County | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 100% | 100% | 100% | 87% | 80% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 67% | 100% | 20% | 60% | 40% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 42% | 57% | 20% | 33% | 40% | 30% |
| Failed To Score | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 20% | 10% |
Goals Conceded
| AFC Bournemouth | Home | Away | Derby County | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 92% | 100% | 80% | 93% | 100% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 58% | 43% | 80% | 67% | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 42% | 14% | 80% | 53% | 100% | 30% |
| Clean Sheets | 8% | 0% | 20% | 7% | 0% | 10% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| AFC Bournemouth | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 93% |
| Over 2.5 | 92% | 87% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 80% |
| Over 4.5 | 50% | 40% |
| BTTS | 92% | 80% |
| BTTS & Win | 42% | 13% |
| BTTS & Draw | 17% | 27% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 92% | 73% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 13% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| AFC Bournemouth | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 42% | 20% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 33% |
| Loss 1st Half | 25% | 47% |
| Scored 1st Half | 75% | 47% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 67% | 53% |
| Win 2nd Half | 25% | 40% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 33% | 20% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 42% | 40% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 75% | 60% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 67% | 87% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 83% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 75% | 67% |
Recent Venue Form
AFC Bournemouth (H)W
Cardiff City U213–2
Cardiff City U213–2L
Brentford U213–4
Brentford U213–4W
Plymouth U216–1
Plymouth U216–1W
Stoke City U212–1
Stoke City U212–1W
Middlesbrough U213–1
Middlesbrough U213–1W
Chelsea U212–1
Chelsea U212–1Derby County (A)DMiddlesbrough U211–1
Middlesbrough U211–1D
Wealdstone2–2
Wealdstone2–2L
Hull City U210–1
Hull City U210–1W
Birmingham City U214–0
Birmingham City U214–0D
Scunthorpe2–2
Scunthorpe2–2LBrentford U212–4
Brentford U212–4Head to Head · 4 matches
2
AFC Bournemouth
50%
0
Draws
0%
2
Derby County
50%
100%
Over 1.5
4/4
100%
Over 2.5
4/4
25%
Over 3.5
1/4
50%
BTTS
2/4
24/01/25Derby County U21
AFC Bournemouth U21
0–3Derby County U2113/09/24AFC Bournemouth U21
Derby County U21
2–3AFC Bournemouth U2112/12/22AFC Bournemouth U21
Derby County U21
3–0AFC Bournemouth U2123/09/22Derby County U21
AFC Bournemouth U21
2–1Derby County U21| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Southampton U21 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 16 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 16 |
| 3 |  Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 |  Fulham U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 |  Norwich City U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 |  Nottingham Forest U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 |  Liverpool U21 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 11 |
| 8 |  Reading U21 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Manchester United U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 10 |
| 10 |  Leeds United U21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 10 |
| 11 |  Sunderland U21 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 12 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Everton U21 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 14 | Brentford U21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 |  West Ham United U21 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 |  Crystal Palace U21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 18 | Derby County U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 19 |  Brighton U21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 20 |  Aston Villa U21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 |  Arsenal U21 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 |  Manchester City U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 23 |  Ipswich Town U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 24 |  Wolves U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 25 |  Leicester City U21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 26 | Stoke City U21 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 27 |  Burnley U21 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 28 |  Newcastle United U21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 29 | Middlesbrough U21 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 | Birmingham City U21 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 31 |  West Bromwich Albion U21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
Team Insights
AFC Bournemouth- ●AFC Bournemouth U21 have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●AFC Bournemouth U21 failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●AFC Bournemouth U21 have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●AFC Bournemouth U21 have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●AFC Bournemouth U21 have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●AFC Bournemouth U21 have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●67% of AFC Bournemouth U21's goals have been scored at home.
- ●90% of AFC Bournemouth U21's points have been earned at home.
- ●AFC Bournemouth U21 have scored 73% of their goals in the first half.
Derby County- ●Derby County U21 have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Derby County U21 have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●65% of Derby County U21's goals conceded were conceded at home.
- ●88% of Derby County U21's points have been earned away.
Season Schedule
AFC BournemouthLALeeds United U211–5
Leeds United U211–5LHBrentford U213–4
Brentford U213–4DABrighton U213–3
Brighton U213–3WHStoke City U212–1
Stoke City U212–1LASouthampton U211–3
Southampton U211–3WHMiddlesbrough U213–1
Middlesbrough U213–1–HReading U2130/11
Reading U2130/11–HSunderland U2114/12
Sunderland U2114/12–ANewcastle United U2121/12
Newcastle United U2121/12Derby CountyDAMiddlesbrough U211–1
Middlesbrough U211–1LHNorwich City U213–4
Norwich City U213–4WABirmingham City U214–0
Birmingham City U214–0LABurnley U211–4
Burnley U211–4LHTottenham Hotspur U211–3
Tottenham Hotspur U211–3DHWest Bromwich Albion U214–4
West Bromwich Albion U214–4–HIpswich Town U2130/11
Ipswich Town U2130/11–HFulham U2114/12
Fulham U2114/12–AWolves U2121/12
Wolves U2121/12Top Scorers
AFC BournemouthE. Nyarko5 ⚽
J. Day4 ⚽
C. Stevens3 ⚽
D. Ndimukum3 ⚽
G. Chubinidze3 ⚽
M. Dacosta2 ⚽
Derby CountyJ. Oguntolu10 ⚽
M. Mintus4 ⚽
C. Wilson3 ⚽
J. Davidson3 ⚽
C. Smith2 ⚽
S. Corry2 ⚽
Cards Given
AFC BournemouthE. Nyarko4 🟨
A. Solanke2 🟨
B. Winterburn2 🟨
J. Azzouz Scafe2 🟨
A. Ali2 🟨
J. Day1 🟨
Derby CountyI. Gordon4 🟨
M. Tola3 🟨
C. Smith3 🟨
F. Jones3 🟨
K. Robinson3 🟨
R. Harvey2 🟨