Pistoiese vs Pavia — Serie D - Girone D
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Pistoiese and Pavia meet in the Serie D - Girone D 2026 season on 18 October 2026. Pistoiese have recorded 4 wins from 5 matches this season (80% win rate), averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 20% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 40%; and clean sheets in 80% of games. Pavia have won 0% of their 5 matches, with 0.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 20%, Over 2.5 at 40%, and clean sheets at 60%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.48 for Pistoiese and 0.94 for Pavia. The models give Pistoiese a 56% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Pavia win at 18%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 43% and BTTS at 46%.
Season Statistics
Pistoiese
PaviaHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Pistoiese | Home | Away | Pavia | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 80% | 100% | 67% | 20% | 0% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 60% | 100% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 40% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 20% | 0% | 33% | 80% | 100% | 50% |
Goals Conceded
| Pistoiese | Home | Away | Pavia | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 20% | 0% | 33% | 40% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40% | 33% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 80% | 100% | 67% | 60% | 67% | 50% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Pistoiese | Pavia | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 80% | 40% |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 | 20% | 20% |
| BTTS | 20% | 20% |
| BTTS & Win | 20% | 0% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 20% | 20% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 20% | 20% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Pistoiese | Pavia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 60% | 0% |
| Draw 1st Half | 40% | 80% |
| Loss 1st Half | 0% | 20% |
| Scored 1st Half | 60% | 20% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 0% | 40% |
| Win 2nd Half | 40% | 0% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 40% | 60% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 20% | 40% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 40% | 0% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 20% | 40% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 60% | 40% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 40% | 20% |
Recent Venue Form
Pistoiese (H)
Arconatese5–0
Solbiatese2–0
Piacenza1–3
Cittadella Vis Modena5–0
Coriano0–1
Crema4–2Pavia (A)
Sant'Angelo0–0
Pisa1–6
Breno1–0
Chievo1–2
USD Casatese0–1
Leon1–3| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Pro Patria | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 |  Pro Sesto | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
| 4 |  Lentigione | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | USD Casatese | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Castellanzese | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sant'Angelo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 |  Città di Varese | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 |  Correggese | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 |  Varesina | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Coriano | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Pavia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 |  Oltrepò | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Solbiatese | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Crema | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 17 | Arconatese | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 18 |  Pontedera | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Team Insights
Pistoiese- ●Pistoiese have won their last 4 matches.
- ●Pistoiese have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●Pistoiese have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Pistoiese have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Pistoiese have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●64% of Pistoiese's goals have been scored at home.
Pavia- ●Pavia have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●Pavia have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Pavia have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
Season Schedule
PistoieseVaresina1–0Arconatese5–0Crema3–1Solbiatese2–0Sant'Angelo27/09USD Casatese04/10Correggese11/10PaviaSant'Angelo0–0Solbiatese0–0Crema0–0Arconatese27/09Correggese04/10Varesina11/10Top Scorers
PistoiesePaviaCards Given
PistoiesePavia