Italy · Serie D - Girone F · Group F - 14

Notaresco

5º · 1.75 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 35d 0h

–

Fossombrone

8º · 1.63 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 35d 0h

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Notaresco and Fossombrone meet in the Serie D - Girone F 2026 season on 29 November 2026. Notaresco have recorded 4 wins from 9 matches this season (44% win rate), averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 56% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 44%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. Fossombrone have won 40% of their 10 matches, with 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 60%, and clean sheets at 30%.

Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.31 for Notaresco and 1.26 for Fossombrone. The models give Notaresco a 43% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Fossombrone win at 30%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 47% and BTTS at 52%.

Season Statistics

Notaresco

—

Fossombrone

5º

Position

8º

1.75

PPG

1.63

50%

Win %

50%

1.63

Goals / game

1.25

1.13

Conceded / game

1.63

56%

BTTS %

50%

33%

Clean sheet %

30%

44%

Over 2.5 %

60%

Home vs Away

Notaresco

Home (5)

—

Fossombrone

Away (5)

2.00

PPG

2.60

60%

Win %

80%

2.00

Goals / game

1.40

1.20

Conceded / game

0.60

80%

BTTS %

43%

20%

Clean sheet %

43%

60%

Over 2.5 %

43%

Goals Scored

	Notaresco	Home	Away	Fossombrone	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Scored	78%	100%	50%	73%	75%	71%
Over 1.5 Scored	33%	40%	25%	36%	50%	29%
Over 2.5 Scored	11%	20%	0%	9%	0%	14%
Failed To Score	22%	0%	50%	27%	25%	29%

Goals Conceded

	Notaresco	Home	Away	Fossombrone	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Conceded	67%	80%	50%	73%	100%	57%
Over 1.5 Conceded	33%	40%	25%	55%	100%	29%
Over 2.5 Conceded	0%	0%	0%	36%	75%	14%
Clean Sheets	33%	20%	50%	27%	0%	43%

Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions

	Notaresco	Fossombrone
Over 0.5	89%	91%
Over 1.5	56%	73%
Over 2.5	44%	64%
Over 3.5	22%	36%
Over 4.5	11%	27%
BTTS	56%	55%
BTTS & Win	22%	18%
BTTS & Draw	22%	9%
BTTS & Over 2.5	44%	45%
BTTS No & Over 2.5	0%	18%

1st Half / 2nd Half

	Notaresco	Fossombrone
Win 1st Half	11%	18%
Draw 1st Half	56%	45%
Loss 1st Half	33%	36%
Scored 1st Half	33%	27%
Conceded 1st Half	56%	55%
Win 2nd Half	44%	27%
Draw 2nd Half	44%	36%
Loss 2nd Half	11%	36%
Scored 2nd Half	56%	64%
Conceded 2nd Half	33%	64%
Over 0.5 HT	67%	64%
Over 1.5 HT	33%	27%

Recent Venue Form

Notaresco (H)

Maceratese5–2

Recanatese2–1

Pietralunga1–1

Santegidiese1–0

Ancona1–2

Victor San Marino1–2

Fossombrone (A)

Ancona3–2

Ancona1–1

Atletico Ascoli1–0

Vigor Senigallia0–0

Sporting Trestina1–0

Real Giulianova2–1

Head to Head · 6 matches

Notaresco

33%

Draws

50%

Fossombrone

17%

50%

Over 1.5

3/6

Over 2.5

0/6

Over 3.5

0/6

33%

BTTS

2/6

01/03/26

Notaresco

1–1

Fossombrone

26/10/25

Fossombrone

0–1

Notaresco

02/03/25

Notaresco

1–0

Fossombrone

27/10/24

Fossombrone

1–1

Notaresco

03/03/24

Fossombrone

2–0

Notaresco

28/10/23

Notaresco

0–0

Fossombrone

Serie D - Girone F

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	L'Aquila	8	6	2	0	+12	20
2	Teramo	8	6	1	1	+9	19
3	Vigor Senigallia	8	5	1	2	+5	16
4	Foligno Calcio	8	5	1	2	+2	16
5	Notaresco	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Ancona	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Atletico Ascoli	8	4	1	3	+3	13
8	Fossombrone	8	4	1	3	-3	13
9	Montecchio Gallo	8	3	2	3	0	11
10	Real Giulianova	8	3	1	4	0	10
11	Lanciano FC	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Termoli Calcio	8	3	1	4	-1	10
13	Santegidiese	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Pietralunga	8	2	2	4	-4	8
15	Maceratese	8	2	1	5	-7	7
16	Recanatese	8	1	3	4	-3	6
17	Angelana	8	1	1	6	-7	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	1	1	6	-9	4

Team Insights

Notaresco

●Notaresco have been undefeated in their last 5 matches.
●Notaresco have won their last 2 home matches.
●Notaresco have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
●Notaresco have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
●Notaresco failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 home matches.
●77% of Notaresco's goals have been scored at home.
●67% of Notaresco's goals conceded were conceded at home.
●Notaresco have conceded 67% of their goals in the first half.

Fossombrone

●Fossombrone have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
●Fossombrone have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
●Fossombrone have lost their last 4 home matches.
●Fossombrone have won their last 2 away matches.
●Fossombrone have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their 5 away matches.
●Fossombrone have won 4 of their 5 away matches.
●82% of Fossombrone's goals conceded were conceded at home.
●100% of Fossombrone's points have been earned away.