Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar — FKF Premier League
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Nairobi United and Mara Sugar meet in the FKF Premier League 2026 season on 14 November 2026. Nairobi United have recorded 1 wins from 7 matches this season (14% win rate), averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 57% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 29%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Mara Sugar have won 20% of their 5 matches, with 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 60%, Over 2.5 at 60%, and clean sheets at 40%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.31 for Nairobi United and 0.98 for Mara Sugar. The models give Nairobi United a 45% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Mara Sugar win at 27%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40% and BTTS at 46%.
Season Statistics
Nairobi UnitedMara SugarHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Nairobi United | Home | Away | Mara Sugar | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 71% | 75% | 67% | 60% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 43% | 25% | 67% | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 29% | 25% | 33% | 40% | 50% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Nairobi United | Home | Away | Mara Sugar | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 100% | 33% | 60% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 29% | 25% | 33% | 40% | 0% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 14% | 0% | 33% | 20% | 0% | 33% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 0% | 67% | 40% | 50% | 33% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Nairobi United | Mara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 | 14% | 0% |
| BTTS | 57% | 60% |
| BTTS & Win | 0% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 43% | 20% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 29% | 60% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Nairobi United | Mara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 29% | 40% |
| Draw 1st Half | 29% | 40% |
| Loss 1st Half | 43% | 20% |
| Scored 1st Half | 57% | 40% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 57% | 20% |
| Win 2nd Half | 43% | 0% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 43% | 40% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 14% | 60% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 57% | 40% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 14% | 60% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 86% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 29% | 20% |
Recent Venue Form
Nairobi United (H)
Bandari1–1
APS Bomet1–1
KCB2–2
Police0–0
Posta Rangers FC2–2
Tusker1–0Mara Sugar (A)Tusker1–3
Ulinzi Stars0–0
3K2–2
Murang'a SEAL1–2
AFC Leopards1–2Tusker1–0Head to Head · 6 matches
Mara SugarNairobi UnitedMara SugarMara SugarNairobi UnitedMara Sugar| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 2 | KCB | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | 3K | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Murang'a SEAL | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Tusker | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 |  Migori Youth | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | APS Bomet | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Police | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 |  Shabana | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 |  Mathare United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Ulinzi Stars | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nairobi United | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Bandari | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 |  Homeboyz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | Posta Rangers FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
Team Insights
Nairobi United- ●Nairobi United have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Nairobi United have been undefeated in their last 3 home matches.
Mara Sugar- ●Mara Sugar have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
Season Schedule
Nairobi UnitedBandari1–1Murang'a SEAL2–3APS Bomet1–1Shabana0–0KCB2–2GOR Mahia08/11Mara Sugar14/11Tusker20/11Mara SugarTusker1–3AFC Leopards0–0Ulinzi Stars0–0Mombasa Elite2–13K2–2Migori Youth07/11Nairobi United14/11Shabana22/11Top Scorers
Nairobi UnitedMara Sugar