Mariehamn vs Ilves — Veikkausliiga
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Mariehamn and Ilves meet in the Veikkausliiga 2026 season on 10 October 2026. Mariehamn have recorded 10 wins from 37 matches this season (27% win rate), averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 41% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 46%; and clean sheets in 19% of games. Ilves have won 48% of their 44 matches, with 1.86 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 55%, Over 2.5 at 57%, and clean sheets at 32%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.55 for Mariehamn and 1.57 for Ilves. The models give Mariehamn a 35% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Ilves win at 40%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 60% and BTTS at 62%.
Season Statistics
Mariehamn—
Ilves12º
Position
9º
0.64
PPG
1.14
14%
Win %
32%
0.77
Goals / game
1.55
1.95
Conceded / game
1.68
41%
BTTS %
55%
19%
Clean sheet %
32%
46%
Over 2.5 %
57%
4.5
Avg corners
3.5
8.2
Avg shots
12.0
2.7
Avg shots on target
4.8
1.7
Avg yellow cards
1.3
11.9
Avg fouls
8.9
44.4%
Avg possession
46.5%
Home vs Away
Mariehamn
Home (11)
—
Ilves
Away (11)
0.91
PPG
0.55
18%
Win %
9%
0.82
Goals / game
1.55
1.55
Conceded / game
2.36
39%
BTTS %
63%
28%
Clean sheet %
16%
33%
Over 2.5 %
68%
4.5
Avg corners
3.5
8.2
Avg shots
12.0
2.7
Avg shots on target
4.8
1.7
Avg yellow cards
1.3
44.4%
Avg possession
46.5%
Goals Scored
| Mariehamn | Home | Away | Ilves | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 59% | 67% | 53% | 84% | 92% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 30% | 33% | 26% | 50% | 52% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 14% | 17% | 11% | 23% | 28% | 16% |
| Failed To Score | 41% | 33% | 47% | 16% | 8% | 26% |
Goals Conceded
| Mariehamn | Home | Away | Ilves | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 81% | 72% | 89% | 68% | 56% | 84% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 46% | 33% | 58% | 39% | 28% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 19% | 11% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 26% |
| Clean Sheets | 19% | 28% | 11% | 32% | 44% | 16% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Mariehamn | Ilves | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 98% |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 45% |
| Over 4.5 | 11% | 20% |
| BTTS | 41% | 55% |
| BTTS & Win | 8% | 18% |
| BTTS & Draw | 24% | 14% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 22% | 50% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 24% | 7% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Mariehamn | Ilves | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 31% | 41% |
| Draw 1st Half | 31% | 36% |
| Loss 1st Half | 39% | 23% |
| Scored 1st Half | 39% | 59% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 48% |
| Win 2nd Half | 25% | 39% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 22% | 39% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 53% | 23% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 44% | 59% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 67% | 43% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 78% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 31% | 43% |
Recent Venue Form
Mariehamn (H)W
Turku PS1–0
Turku PS1–0W
FF Jaro2–0
FF Jaro2–0W
SJK2–0
SJK2–0D
AC Oulu1–1
AC Oulu1–1L
Lahti0–2
Lahti0–2L
Inter Turku0–2
Inter Turku0–2Ilves (A)L
Gnistan2–3
Gnistan2–3L
HNK Rijeka0–1
HNK Rijeka0–1LAC Oulu0–1
AC Oulu0–1L
Stjarnan0–1
Stjarnan0–1WTurku PS3–1
Turku PS3–1D
FC Differdange 030–0
FC Differdange 030–0Number of Corners
10.3
Corners / Match
12 games
League Avg
8.8
67 games
7.8
Corners / Match
13 games
| Match Corners | Mariehamn | Ilves | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 92% | 77% | 78% |
| Over 7 | 92% | 54% | 66% |
| Over 8 | 75% | 38% | 55% |
| Over 9 | 67% | 15% | 43% |
| Over 10 | 42% | 8% | 34% |
| Over 11 | 33% | 8% | 22% |
| Over 12 | 17% | 8% | 9% |
| Over 13 | 8% | 0% | 1% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Mariehamn | Ilves |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.8 | 4.3 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 67% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 58% | 69% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 58% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 92% | 85% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 75% | 54% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 67% | 31% |
Head to Head · 34 matches
11
Mariehamn
32%
7
Draws
21%
16
Ilves
47%
74%
Over 1.5
25/34
44%
Over 2.5
15/34
29%
Over 3.5
10/34
44%
BTTS
15/34
09/08/26Mariehamn
Ilves
2–0Mariehamn18/04/26Ilves
Mariehamn
2–2Ilves31/08/25Mariehamn
Ilves
2–1Mariehamn27/04/25Ilves
Mariehamn
3–2Ilves11/08/24Mariehamn
Ilves
2–0Mariehamn28/04/24Ilves
Mariehamn
0–1Ilves27/09/23Mariehamn
Ilves
2–1Mariehamn15/07/23Mariehamn
Ilves
0–0Mariehamn05/04/23Ilves
Mariehamn
1–1Ilves02/10/22Mariehamn
Ilves
2–3Mariehamn21/08/22Ilves
Mariehamn
1–5Ilves15/05/22Mariehamn
Ilves
1–0Mariehamn22/09/21Mariehamn
Ilves
2–0Mariehamn29/08/21Ilves
Mariehamn
1–0Ilves24/04/21Mariehamn
Ilves
2–0Mariehamn23/09/20Ilves
Mariehamn
0–2Ilves01/07/20Mariehamn
Ilves
4–3Mariehamn06/10/19Ilves
Mariehamn
2–2Ilves11/08/19Ilves
Mariehamn
0–1Ilves15/06/19Ilves
Mariehamn
0–2IlvesTeam Insights
Mariehamn- ●Mariehamn have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Mariehamn have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 home matches.
- ●Mariehamn have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Mariehamn failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 12 away matches.
- ●Mariehamn have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Mariehamn failed to keep a clean sheet in 9 of their 12 home matches.
- ●Mariehamn failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 12 away matches.
- ●Mariehamn have lost 10 of their 12 away matches.
- ●76% of Mariehamn's points have been earned at home.
Ilves- ●Ilves have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Ilves have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Ilves have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Ilves failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 11 away matches.
- ●Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 7 of their 13 home matches.
- ●Ilves have scored in 12 of their 13 home matches.
- ●Ilves failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 11 away matches.
- ●Ilves have lost 7 of their 11 away matches.
- ●Ilves have scored in 9 of their 11 away matches.
- ●68% of Ilves's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●81% of Ilves's points have been earned at home.
- ●Ilves have conceded 58% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
MariehamnWHTurku PS1–0
Turku PS1–0LALahti1–2
Lahti1–2WHFF Jaro2–0
FF Jaro2–0WA
KuPS4–2
KuPS4–2WHSJK2–0
SJK2–0LAIlves0–2
Ilves0–2–ASJK18/09
SJK18/09–HIlves10/10
Ilves10/10–AFF Jaro17/10
FF Jaro17/10IlvesWHLahti3–1
Lahti3–1WHFF Jaro2–0
FF Jaro2–0LH
HJK Helsinki1–2
HJK Helsinki1–2LH
VPS0–1
VPS0–1LAGnistan2–3
Gnistan2–3WHMariehamn2–0
Mariehamn2–0–ATurku PS19/09
Turku PS19/09–AMariehamn10/10
Mariehamn10/10–HSJK17/10
SJK17/10Top Scorers
MariehamnA. Larsson6 ⚽
L. Andersson4 ⚽
L. Pearce3 ⚽
E. Patut2 ⚽
A. Huttunen2 ⚽
L. Richtner2 ⚽
IlvesT. Hytonen18 ⚽
J. Kanga14 ⚽
M. Stjopin8 ⚽
R. Riski4 ⚽
J. Kilo3 ⚽
K. Wallius3 ⚽
Cards Given
MariehamnEmmanuel Patut5 🟨
4 🟨
J. Nissinen3 🟨
E. Patut3 🟨
F. Gyamfi3 🟨
Jiri Nissinen3 🟨
IlvesS. Baranov5 🟨
Kalle Wallius4 🟨
A. Popovitch4 🟨
J. Kanga4 🟨
S. Vaisanen4 🟨
Tatu Miettunen4 🟨