Independiente del Valle vs Aucas — Liga Pro
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Estadio Banco Guayaquil·Quito·Ecuador·12,600
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Independiente del Valle and Aucas meet in the Liga Pro 2026 season on 11 October 2026. Independiente del Valle have recorded 31 wins from 42 matches this season (74% win rate), averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 55% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 64%; and clean sheets in 36% of games. Aucas have won 45% of their 33 matches, with 1.06 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 36%, Over 2.5 at 33%, and clean sheets at 45%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.68 for Independiente del Valle and 0.96 for Aucas. The models give Independiente del Valle a 59% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Aucas win at 17%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 49% and BTTS at 50%.
Season Statistics
Independiente del Valle—
Aucas1º
Position
4º
2.47
PPG
1.67
80%
Win %
47%
2.43
Goals / game
1.10
1.10
Conceded / game
0.93
55%
BTTS %
36%
36%
Clean sheet %
45%
64%
Over 2.5 %
33%
6.3
Avg corners
5.0
17.8
Avg shots
12.5
6.2
Avg shots on target
4.2
1.8
Avg yellow cards
2.1
8.1
Avg fouls
12.9
56.7%
Avg possession
53.7%
Home vs Away
Independiente del Valle
Home (15)
—
Aucas
Away (15)
2.33
PPG
1.60
73%
Win %
40%
2.40
Goals / game
0.93
1.00
Conceded / game
0.80
57%
BTTS %
31%
33%
Clean sheet %
56%
67%
Over 2.5 %
25%
6.3
Avg corners
5.0
17.8
Avg shots
12.5
6.2
Avg shots on target
4.2
1.8
Avg yellow cards
2.1
56.7%
Avg possession
53.7%
Goals Scored
| Independiente del | Home | Away | Aucas | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 88% | 90% | 86% | 73% | 76% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 69% | 71% | 67% | 24% | 29% | 19% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 48% | 43% | 52% | 9% | 18% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 12% | 10% | 14% | 27% | 24% | 31% |
Goals Conceded
| Independiente del | Home | Away | Aucas | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 64% | 67% | 62% | 55% | 65% | 44% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 40% | 33% | 48% | 24% | 24% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 2% | 5% | 0% | 12% | 12% | 13% |
| Clean Sheets | 36% | 33% | 38% | 45% | 35% | 56% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Independiente del | Aucas | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98% | 91% |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 33% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 15% |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 9% |
| BTTS | 55% | 36% |
| BTTS & Win | 40% | 9% |
| BTTS & Draw | 7% | 15% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 52% | 24% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 12% | 9% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Independiente del | Aucas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 55% | 27% |
| Draw 1st Half | 36% | 52% |
| Loss 1st Half | 10% | 21% |
| Scored 1st Half | 67% | 42% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 36% | 36% |
| Win 2nd Half | 52% | 39% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 21% | 30% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 26% | 30% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 64% | 48% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 36% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 76% | 61% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 45% | 27% |
Recent Venue Form
Independiente del (H)L
Flamengo0–2
Flamengo0–2W
Macara3–1
Macara3–1D
Universidad Catolica2–2
Universidad Catolica2–2W
Deportes Tolima3–1
Deportes Tolima3–1W
Delfin SC3–2
Delfin SC3–2W
Deportivo Cuenca1–0
Deportivo Cuenca1–0Aucas (A)D
Manta FC0–0
Manta FC0–0DUniversidad Catolica1–1
Universidad Catolica1–1L
LDU de Quito0–1
LDU de Quito0–1WDelfin SC1–0
Delfin SC1–0D
La Unión1–1
La Unión1–1W
Emelec2–0
Emelec2–0Number of Corners
9.9
Corners / Match
37 games
League Avg
9.2
228 games
9.2
Corners / Match
29 games
| Match Corners | Independiente del | Aucas | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 89% | 76% | 86% |
| Over 7 | 81% | 69% | 74% |
| Over 8 | 65% | 52% | 56% |
| Over 9 | 54% | 41% | 40% |
| Over 10 | 43% | 34% | 29% |
| Over 11 | 32% | 28% | 18% |
| Over 12 | 19% | 7% | 11% |
| Over 13 | 11% | 7% | 6% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Independiente del | Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 6.3 | 5.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 100% | 86% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 78% | 69% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 65% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 59% | 79% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 46% | 62% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 35% | 34% |
Head to Head · 23 matches
13
Independiente del
57%
5
Draws
22%
5
Aucas
22%
78%
Over 1.5
18/23
48%
Over 2.5
11/23
26%
Over 3.5
6/23
43%
BTTS
10/23
16/07/26Independiente del Valle
Aucas
0–3Independiente del Valle14/03/26Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2–2Aucas19/07/25Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2–1Aucas28/03/25Independiente del Valle
Aucas
1–2Independiente del Valle01/09/24Independiente del Valle
Aucas
0–2Independiente del Valle24/03/24Aucas
Independiente del Valle
1–1Aucas11/11/23Independiente del Valle
Aucas
2–0Independiente del Valle02/06/23Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2–0Aucas11/02/23Aucas
Independiente del Valle
3–0Aucas23/07/22Independiente del Valle
Aucas
5–0Independiente del Valle07/03/22Aucas
Independiente del Valle
1–0Aucas14/08/21Aucas
Independiente del Valle
1–0Aucas14/03/21Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3–4Independiente del Valle18/11/20Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3–3Independiente del Valle25/08/20Aucas
Independiente del Valle
1–1Aucas19/10/19Aucas
Independiente del Valle
4–0Aucas11/05/19Independiente del Valle
Aucas
2–1Independiente del Valle10/07/18Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3–1Independiente del Valle24/02/18Aucas
Independiente del Valle
1–0Aucas10/07/16Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2–0Aucas| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | +5 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | +7 | 46 |
| 6 |  Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | +7 | 44 |
| 7 |  Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 |  Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 |  Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 |  Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 38 |
| 11 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 36 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 |  Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 |  Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -25 | 21 |
Team Insights
Independiente del- ●Independiente del Valle have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have scored in each of their last 21 matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have been undefeated in their last 7 home matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have scored in each of their last 10 home matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have scored in each of their last 13 away matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have scored in 14 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have won 13 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have scored in 14 of their 15 away matches.
Aucas- ●Aucas have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●Aucas have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Aucas failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Aucas have kept a clean sheet in 9 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Aucas have won 6 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Aucas have scored in 11 of their 15 away matches.
Season Schedule
Independiente delWALibertad3–2
Libertad3–2WHMacara3–1
Macara3–1LABarcelona SC1–2
Barcelona SC1–2DHUniversidad Catolica2–2
Universidad Catolica2–2WALeones del Norte3–2
Leones del Norte3–2WHDelfin SC3–2
Delfin SC3–2–HAucas11/10
Aucas11/10–AMacara18/10
Macara18/10–HUniversidad Catolica25/10
Universidad Catolica25/10AucasLHMacara1–2
Macara1–2DAManta FC0–0
Manta FC0–0DHBarcelona SC1–1
Barcelona SC1–1DAUniversidad Catolica1–1
Universidad Catolica1–1WHLibertad1–0
Libertad1–0WADelfin SC1–0
Delfin SC1–0–AIndependiente del Valle11/10
Independiente del Valle11/10–HLDU de Quito18/10
LDU de Quito18/10–HBarcelona SC25/10
Barcelona SC25/10Top Scorers
Independiente delC. Gonzalez15 ⚽
D. Reasco9 ⚽
M. Perello9 ⚽
E. Pata8 ⚽
J. Sornoza6 ⚽
J. Angulo6 ⚽
AucasB. Miranda6 ⚽
E. Preciado5 ⚽
R. Quinonez4 ⚽
S. Porozo3 ⚽
A. Mena3 ⚽
R. Bolanos2 ⚽
Cards Given
Independiente delMateo Carabajal6 🟨
Junior Sornoza6 🟨
Jhon Espinoza5 🟨
Layan Loor4 🟨
Juan Viacava4 🟨
Jhegson Méndez4 🟨
AucasLuis Arroyo5 🟨
Jhon Ontaneda5 🟨
Agostino Spina4 🟨
Alex Zova4 🟨
Luis Gustavino4 🟨
Santiago Morales4 🟨