Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro
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Estadio Banco Guayaquil·Quito·Ecuador·12,600
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Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica meet in the Liga Pro 2026 season on 25 October 2026. Independiente del Valle have recorded 31 wins from 42 matches this season (74% win rate), averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 55% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 64%; and clean sheets in 36% of games. Universidad Catolica have won 44% of their 34 matches, with 1.65 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 53%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 35%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.71 for Independiente del Valle and 0.98 for Universidad Catolica. The models give Independiente del Valle a 58% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Universidad Catolica win at 19%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 50% and BTTS at 51%.
Season Statistics
Independiente del Valle—
Universidad Catolica1º
Position
2º
2.47
PPG
1.70
80%
Win %
47%
2.43
Goals / game
1.70
1.10
Conceded / game
0.90
55%
BTTS %
53%
36%
Clean sheet %
35%
64%
Over 2.5 %
50%
6.3
Avg corners
4.4
17.8
Avg shots
14.1
6.2
Avg shots on target
4.8
1.8
Avg yellow cards
1.6
8.1
Avg fouls
10.8
56.7%
Avg possession
58.8%
Home vs Away
Independiente del Valle
Home (15)
—
Universidad Catolica
Away (15)
2.33
PPG
1.20
73%
Win %
27%
2.40
Goals / game
0.93
1.00
Conceded / game
0.87
57%
BTTS %
47%
33%
Clean sheet %
35%
67%
Over 2.5 %
29%
6.3
Avg corners
4.4
17.8
Avg shots
14.1
6.2
Avg shots on target
4.8
1.8
Avg yellow cards
1.6
56.7%
Avg possession
58.8%
Goals Scored
| Independiente del | Home | Away | Universidad Catolica | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 88% | 90% | 86% | 82% | 94% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 69% | 71% | 67% | 47% | 71% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 48% | 43% | 52% | 18% | 35% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 12% | 10% | 14% | 18% | 6% | 29% |
Goals Conceded
| Independiente del | Home | Away | Universidad Catolica | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 64% | 67% | 62% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 40% | 33% | 48% | 26% | 29% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 2% | 5% | 0% | 15% | 24% | 6% |
| Clean Sheets | 36% | 33% | 38% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Independiente del | Universidad Catolica | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 74% |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 29% |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 18% |
| BTTS | 55% | 53% |
| BTTS & Win | 40% | 15% |
| BTTS & Draw | 7% | 21% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 52% | 38% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 12% | 12% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Independiente del | Universidad Catolica | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 55% | 24% |
| Draw 1st Half | 36% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 10% | 26% |
| Scored 1st Half | 67% | 41% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 36% | 41% |
| Win 2nd Half | 52% | 41% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 21% | 44% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 26% | 15% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 64% | 71% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 50% | 44% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 76% | 59% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 45% | 29% |
Recent Venue Form
Independiente del (H)L
Flamengo0–2
Flamengo0–2W
Macara3–1
Macara3–1DUniversidad Catolica2–2
Universidad Catolica2–2W
Deportes Tolima3–1
Deportes Tolima3–1W
Delfin SC3–2
Delfin SC3–2W
Deportivo Cuenca1–0
Deportivo Cuenca1–0Universidad Catolica (A)W
Astillero FC (Ecu)1–0
Astillero FC (Ecu)1–0WDelfin SC1–0
Delfin SC1–0DIndependiente del Valle2–2
Independiente del Valle2–2DMacara1–1
Macara1–1L
Libertad1–2
Libertad1–2W
Cuniburo3–2
Cuniburo3–2Number of Corners
9.9
Corners / Match
37 games
League Avg
9.2
228 games
8.8
Corners / Match
32 games
| Match Corners | Independiente del | Universidad Catolica | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 89% | 94% | 86% |
| Over 7 | 81% | 78% | 74% |
| Over 8 | 65% | 44% | 56% |
| Over 9 | 54% | 28% | 40% |
| Over 10 | 43% | 19% | 29% |
| Over 11 | 32% | 13% | 18% |
| Over 12 | 19% | 6% | 11% |
| Over 13 | 11% | 3% | 6% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Independiente del | Universidad Catolica |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 6.3 | 4.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 100% | 84% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 78% | 66% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 65% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 59% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 46% | 59% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 35% | 50% |
Head to Head · 34 matches
15
Independiente del
44%
8
Draws
24%
11
Universidad Catolica
32%
71%
Over 1.5
24/34
59%
Over 2.5
20/34
38%
Over 3.5
13/34
62%
BTTS
21/34
29/08/26Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
2–2Universidad Catolica13/05/26Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
0–3Independiente del Valle01/05/26Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
2–3Independiente del Valle14/12/25Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
0–1Independiente del Valle08/11/25Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
0–2Universidad Catolica13/10/25Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
1–2Universidad Catolica29/06/25Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
0–3Independiente del Valle02/03/25Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
1–1Universidad Catolica29/10/24Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
1–2Universidad Catolica22/10/24Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
0–1Independiente del Valle28/09/24Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
5–2Universidad Catolica14/04/24Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
2–2Independiente del Valle26/08/23Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
0–1Universidad Catolica31/03/23Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
2–3Independiente del Valle28/08/22Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
1–2Universidad Catolica17/04/22Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3–1Independiente del Valle14/09/21Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
1–3Independiente del Valle10/07/21Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
2–3Universidad Catolica31/10/20Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3–1Independiente del Valle07/03/20Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
2–2Universidad Catolica| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | +5 | 50 |
| 5 |  LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | +7 | 46 |
| 6 |  Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | +7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 |  Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 |  Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 |  Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 38 |
| 11 |  Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 36 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 |  Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 |  Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 |  Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -25 | 21 |
Team Insights
Independiente del- ●Independiente del Valle have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have scored in each of their last 21 matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have been undefeated in their last 7 home matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have scored in each of their last 10 home matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have scored in each of their last 13 away matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have scored in 14 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have won 13 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Independiente del Valle have scored in 14 of their 15 away matches.
Universidad Catolica- ●Universidad Catolica have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Universidad Catolica have scored in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Universidad Catolica have been undefeated in their last 6 home matches.
- ●Universidad Catolica have scored in each of their last 15 home matches.
- ●Universidad Catolica have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Universidad Catolica have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Universidad Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Universidad Catolica have scored in 15 of their 15 home matches.
- ●73% of Universidad Catolica's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Independiente delWALibertad3–2
Libertad3–2WHMacara3–1
Macara3–1LABarcelona SC1–2
Barcelona SC1–2DHUniversidad Catolica2–2
Universidad Catolica2–2WALeones del Norte3–2
Leones del Norte3–2WHDelfin SC3–2
Delfin SC3–2–HAucas11/10
Aucas11/10–AMacara18/10
Macara18/10–HUniversidad Catolica25/10
Universidad Catolica25/10Universidad CatolicaWHOrense SC2–1
Orense SC2–1WADelfin SC1–0
Delfin SC1–0DHAucas1–1
Aucas1–1DAIndependiente del Valle2–2
Independiente del Valle2–2WHManta FC5–1
Manta FC5–1DAMacara1–1
Macara1–1–ALDU de Quito20/09
LDU de Quito20/09–HMacara11/10
Macara11/10–ABarcelona SC18/10
Barcelona SC18/10Top Scorers
Independiente delC. Gonzalez15 ⚽
D. Reasco9 ⚽
M. Perello9 ⚽
E. Pata8 ⚽
J. Sornoza6 ⚽
J. Angulo6 ⚽
Universidad CatolicaJ. Fajardo12 ⚽
M. Alonso8 ⚽
B. Palacios6 ⚽
E. Clavijo5 ⚽
A. Londono4 ⚽
Jhon Chancellor4 ⚽
Cards Given
Independiente delMateo Carabajal6 🟨
Junior Sornoza6 🟨
Jhon Espinoza5 🟨
Layan Loor4 🟨
Juan Viacava4 🟨
Jhegson Méndez4 🟨
Universidad CatolicaMauro Díaz5 🟨
Gregori Anangonó5 🟨
Mauricio Alonso4 🟨
José Fajardo4 🟨
Luis Cangá4 🟨
Eddy Mejía3 🟨