Ecuador · Liga Pro · Placement Group - 2

Libertad

7º · 1.37 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 21d 20h

–

Leones del Norte

8º · 1.30 PPG

Days Since Last Match: 21d 22h

Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne·Loja·Ecuador·15,281

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Libertad and Leones del Norte meet in the Liga Pro 2026 season on 11 October 2026. Libertad have recorded 12 wins from 32 matches this season (38% win rate), averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 47% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 47%; and clean sheets in 31% of games. Leones del Norte have won 32% of their 31 matches, with 1.03 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 48%, Over 2.5 at 32%, and clean sheets at 32%.

Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.32 for Libertad and 0.94 for Leones del Norte. The models give Libertad a 47% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Leones del Norte win at 25%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40% and BTTS at 45%.

Season Statistics

Libertad

—

Leones del Norte

7º

Position

8º

1.37

PPG

1.30

37%

Win %

33%

1.10

Goals / game

1.03

1.13

Conceded / game

1.07

47%

BTTS %

48%

31%

Clean sheet %

32%

47%

Over 2.5 %

32%

3.9

Avg corners

4.1

11.4

Avg shots

12.9

3.9

Avg shots on target

4.0

2.2

Avg yellow cards

2.4

11.5

Avg fouls

12.1

45.0%

Avg possession

46.9%

Home vs Away

Libertad

Home (15)

—

Leones del Norte

Away (15)

1.80

PPG

1.07

53%

Win %

27%

1.33

Goals / game

0.87

1.00

Conceded / game

1.27

47%

BTTS %

50%

40%

Clean sheet %

31%

47%

Over 2.5 %

44%

3.9

Avg corners

4.1

11.4

Avg shots

12.9

3.9

Avg shots on target

4.0

2.2

Avg yellow cards

2.4

45.0%

Avg possession

46.9%

Goals Scored

	Libertad	Home	Away	Leones del	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Scored	69%	80%	59%	74%	80%	69%
Over 1.5 Scored	31%	40%	24%	19%	27%	13%
Over 2.5 Scored	9%	13%	6%	10%	13%	6%
Failed To Score	31%	20%	41%	26%	20%	31%

Goals Conceded

	Libertad	Home	Away	Leones del	Home	Away
Over 0.5 Conceded	69%	60%	76%	68%	67%	69%
Over 1.5 Conceded	38%	27%	47%	29%	13%	44%
Over 2.5 Conceded	13%	13%	12%	10%	7%	13%
Clean Sheets	31%	40%	24%	32%	33%	31%

Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions

	Libertad	Leones del
Over 0.5	91%	94%
Over 1.5	63%	71%
Over 2.5	47%	32%
Over 3.5	19%	10%
Over 4.5	9%	3%
BTTS	47%	48%
BTTS & Win	16%	6%
BTTS & Draw	16%	26%
BTTS & Over 2.5	38%	23%
BTTS No & Over 2.5	9%	10%

1st Half / 2nd Half

	Libertad	Leones del
Win 1st Half	22%	32%
Draw 1st Half	47%	48%
Loss 1st Half	31%	19%
Scored 1st Half	38%	48%
Conceded 1st Half	38%	42%
Win 2nd Half	31%	29%
Draw 2nd Half	38%	39%
Loss 2nd Half	31%	32%
Scored 2nd Half	47%	45%
Conceded 2nd Half	50%	45%
Over 0.5 HT	59%	68%
Over 1.5 HT	25%	29%

Recent Venue Form

Libertad (H)

Independiente del Valle2–3

Emelec1–1

Macara1–0

Universidad Catolica2–1

Orense SC3–0

Delfin SC1–0

Leones del (A)

Guayaquil City FC1–1

Mushuc Runa SC1–1

Emelec1–2

Manta FC2–0

Aucas0–3

LDU de Quito0–6

Number of Corners

9.5

Corners / Match

29 games

League Avg

9.2

228 games

8.8

Corners / Match

30 games

Match Corners	Libertad	Leones del	League Avg
Over 6	90%	80%	86%
Over 7	83%	70%	74%
Over 8	69%	57%	56%
Over 9	45%	40%	40%
Over 10	28%	27%	29%
Over 11	17%	17%	18%
Over 12	14%	10%	11%
Over 13	10%	0%	6%

Team Corners

Team Corners	Libertad	Leones del
Corners Earned / Match	3.9	4.1
Corners Against / Match	5.7	4.7
Over 2.5 Corners For	66%	77%
Over 3.5 Corners For	55%	63%
Over 4.5 Corners For	41%	40%
Over 2.5 Corners Against	90%	83%
Over 3.5 Corners Against	79%	67%
Over 4.5 Corners Against	59%	47%

Head to Head · 2 matches

Libertad

Draws

50%

Leones del

50%

100%

Over 1.5

2/2

50%

Over 2.5

1/2

50%

Over 3.5

1/2

100%

BTTS

2/2

04/07/26

Libertad

1–3

Leones del Norte

28/02/26

Leones del Norte

1–1

Libertad

Liga Pro

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	+40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	+24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	+8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	+5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	+7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	+7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
11	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	36
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21

Team Insights

Libertad

●Libertad have scored in each of their last 8 home matches.
●Libertad have won their last 2 away matches.
●Libertad have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their 15 home matches.
●Libertad failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 16 away matches.

Leones del

●Leones del Norte have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
●Leones del Norte have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
●Leones del Norte failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 15 home matches.
●Leones del Norte have scored 56% of their goals in the first half.

Libertad

WAEmelec8º2–1

WAEmelec11º2–1

LHIndependiente del Valle1º2–3

WADeportivo Cuenca12º1–0

WADeportivo Cuenca2º1–0

DHEmelec11º1–1

DHEmelec8º1–1

LAAucas4º0–1

LAAucas5º0–1

Leones del Norte

DAGuayaquil City FC11º1–1

DAGuayaquil City FC9º1–1

LHTecnico Universitario9º0–1

LHTecnico Universitario14º0–1

DAMushuc Runa SC10º1–1

DAMushuc Runa SC12º1–1

WHOrense SC7º1–0

WHOrense SC13º1–0

LAEmelec11º1–2

LAEmelec8º1–2

Season Schedule

Libertad

Emelec2–1

Independiente del Valle2–3

Deportivo Cuenca1–0

Emelec1–1

Aucas0–1

Macara1–0

–H

Leones del Norte11/10

–H

Guayaquil City FC18/10

–A

Leones del Norte25/10

Leones del

Guayaquil City FC1–1

Tecnico Universitario0–1

Mushuc Runa SC1–1

Orense SC1–0

Emelec1–2

Independiente del Valle2–3

–A

Libertad11/10

–H

Emelec18/10

–H

Libertad25/10

Top Scorers

Libertad

V. Branda8 ⚽

A. Chere5 ⚽

G. J. Cortez Casierra4 ⚽

I. Zambrano3 ⚽

E. Caicedo2 ⚽

B. Caicedo2 ⚽

Leones del

J. Anangono10 ⚽

E. Griffa5 ⚽

D. Pazmino3 ⚽

C. Solano3 ⚽

E. Pepinos2 ⚽

M. Luque2 ⚽

Cards Given

Libertad

Bryan Caicedo8 🟨

Jackson Rodríguez7 🟨

Cristhian Valencia4 🟨

B. Caicedo4 🟨

G. J. Cortez Casierra4 🟨

D. Coronel3 🟨

Leones del

Jordan Morán8 🟨

Jonathan Arroyo6 🟨

Nicolás Monserrat6 🟨

Emiliano Griffa5 🟨

Ariel Aguas4 🟨

Brian Kreiman3 🟨

Libertad vs Leones del Norte — Liga Pro

Unlock all Match Predictions

Season Statistics

Home vs Away

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions

1st Half / 2nd Half

Recent Venue Form

Number of Corners

Team Corners

Head to Head · 2 matches

Team Insights

Season Schedule

Top Scorers

Cards Given