Leones del Norte vs Libertad — Liga Pro
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Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra·Ibarra·Ecuador·17,260
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Leones del Norte and Libertad meet in the Liga Pro 2026 season on 25 October 2026. Leones del Norte have recorded 10 wins from 31 matches this season (32% win rate), averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 48% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 32%; and clean sheets in 32% of games. Libertad have won 38% of their 32 matches, with 1.09 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 47%, Over 2.5 at 47%, and clean sheets at 31%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.23 for Leones del Norte and 0.88 for Libertad. The models give Leones del Norte a 42% win probability, with a draw at 30% and an Libertad win at 28%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 35% and BTTS at 42%.
Season Statistics
Leones del Norte—
Libertad8º
Position
7º
1.30
PPG
1.37
33%
Win %
37%
1.03
Goals / game
1.10
1.07
Conceded / game
1.13
48%
BTTS %
47%
32%
Clean sheet %
31%
32%
Over 2.5 %
47%
4.1
Avg corners
3.9
12.9
Avg shots
11.4
4.0
Avg shots on target
3.9
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.2
12.1
Avg fouls
11.5
46.9%
Avg possession
45.0%
Home vs Away
Leones del Norte
Home (15)
—
Libertad
Away (15)
1.53
PPG
0.93
40%
Win %
20%
1.20
Goals / game
0.87
0.87
Conceded / game
1.27
47%
BTTS %
47%
33%
Clean sheet %
24%
20%
Over 2.5 %
47%
4.1
Avg corners
3.9
12.9
Avg shots
11.4
4.0
Avg shots on target
3.9
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.2
46.9%
Avg possession
45.0%
Goals Scored
| Leones del | Home | Away | Libertad | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 74% | 80% | 69% | 69% | 80% | 59% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 19% | 27% | 13% | 31% | 40% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 10% | 13% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 6% |
| Failed To Score | 26% | 20% | 31% | 31% | 20% | 41% |
Goals Conceded
| Leones del | Home | Away | Libertad | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 68% | 67% | 69% | 69% | 60% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 29% | 13% | 44% | 38% | 27% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 10% | 7% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% |
| Clean Sheets | 32% | 33% | 31% | 31% | 40% | 24% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Leones del | Libertad | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94% | 91% |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 19% |
| Over 4.5 | 3% | 9% |
| BTTS | 48% | 47% |
| BTTS & Win | 6% | 16% |
| BTTS & Draw | 26% | 16% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 23% | 38% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 10% | 9% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Leones del | Libertad | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 32% | 22% |
| Draw 1st Half | 48% | 47% |
| Loss 1st Half | 19% | 31% |
| Scored 1st Half | 48% | 38% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 42% | 38% |
| Win 2nd Half | 29% | 31% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 39% | 38% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 32% | 31% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 45% | 47% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 45% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 68% | 59% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 29% | 25% |
Recent Venue Form
Leones del (H)L
Tecnico Universitario0–1
Tecnico Universitario0–1W
Orense SC1–0
Orense SC1–0L
Independiente del Valle2–3
Independiente del Valle2–3D
Barcelona SC1–1
Barcelona SC1–1D
Guayaquil City FC1–1
Guayaquil City FC1–1D
Deportivo Cuenca1–1
Deportivo Cuenca1–1Libertad (A)W
Emelec2–1
Emelec2–1WDeportivo Cuenca1–0
Deportivo Cuenca1–0L
Aucas0–1
Aucas0–1DGuayaquil City FC2–2
Guayaquil City FC2–2W
Mushuc Runa SC2–0
Mushuc Runa SC2–0LBarcelona SC0–1
Barcelona SC0–1Number of Corners
8.8
Corners / Match
30 games
League Avg
9.2
228 games
9.5
Corners / Match
29 games
| Match Corners | Leones del | Libertad | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 80% | 90% | 86% |
| Over 7 | 70% | 83% | 74% |
| Over 8 | 57% | 69% | 56% |
| Over 9 | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Over 10 | 27% | 28% | 29% |
| Over 11 | 17% | 17% | 18% |
| Over 12 | 10% | 14% | 11% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 10% | 6% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Leones del | Libertad |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.7 | 5.7 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 77% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 63% | 55% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 40% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 83% | 90% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 67% | 79% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 47% | 59% |
Head to Head · 2 matches
1
Leones del
50%
1
Draws
50%
0
Libertad
0%
100%
Over 1.5
2/2
50%
Over 2.5
1/2
50%
Over 3.5
1/2
100%
BTTS
2/2
04/07/26Leones del Norte
Libertad
1–3Leones del Norte28/02/26Libertad
Leones del Norte
1–1Libertad| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 |  Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +24 | 51 |
| 3 |  Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | +5 | 50 |
| 5 |  LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | +7 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | +7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -3 | 38 |
| 11 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 36 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 |  Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 |  Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -25 | 21 |
Team Insights
Leones del- ●Leones del Norte have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Leones del Norte have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Leones del Norte failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Leones del Norte have scored 56% of their goals in the first half.
Libertad- ●Libertad have scored in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Libertad have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Libertad have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Libertad failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 16 away matches.
Season Schedule
Leones delDAGuayaquil City FC1–1
Guayaquil City FC1–1LHTecnico Universitario0–1
Tecnico Universitario0–1DAMushuc Runa SC1–1
Mushuc Runa SC1–1WHOrense SC1–0
Orense SC1–0LAEmelec1–2
Emelec1–2LHIndependiente del Valle2–3
Independiente del Valle2–3–ALibertad11/10
Libertad11/10–HEmelec18/10
Emelec18/10–HLibertad25/10
Libertad25/10LibertadWAEmelec2–1
Emelec2–1LHIndependiente del Valle2–3
Independiente del Valle2–3WADeportivo Cuenca1–0
Deportivo Cuenca1–0DHEmelec1–1
Emelec1–1LAAucas0–1
Aucas0–1WHMacara1–0
Macara1–0–HLeones del Norte11/10
Leones del Norte11/10–HGuayaquil City FC18/10
Guayaquil City FC18/10–ALeones del Norte25/10
Leones del Norte25/10Top Scorers
Leones delJ. Anangono10 ⚽
E. Griffa5 ⚽
D. Pazmino3 ⚽
C. Solano3 ⚽
E. Pepinos2 ⚽
M. Luque2 ⚽
LibertadV. Branda8 ⚽
A. Chere5 ⚽
G. J. Cortez Casierra4 ⚽
I. Zambrano3 ⚽
E. Caicedo2 ⚽
B. Caicedo2 ⚽
Cards Given
Leones delJordan Morán8 🟨
Jonathan Arroyo6 🟨
Nicolás Monserrat6 🟨
Emiliano Griffa5 🟨
Ariel Aguas4 🟨
Brian Kreiman3 🟨
LibertadBryan Caicedo8 🟨
Jackson Rodríguez7 🟨
Cristhian Valencia4 🟨
B. Caicedo4 🟨
G. J. Cortez Casierra4 🟨
D. Coronel3 🟨