Cerro vs Wanderers — Primera División
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Cerro and Wanderers meet in the Primera División 2026 season on 4 October 2026. Cerro have recorded 9 wins from 33 matches this season (27% win rate), averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 48% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 42%; and clean sheets in 18% of games. Wanderers have won 33% of their 36 matches, with 1.14 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 31%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.29 for Cerro and 0.96 for Wanderers. The models give Cerro a 41% win probability, with a draw at 30% and an Wanderers win at 30%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 39% and BTTS at 45%.
Season Statistics
Cerro—
Wanderers16º
Position
10º
0.67
PPG
1.33
13%
Win %
40%
0.53
Goals / game
1.07
1.60
Conceded / game
1.40
48%
BTTS %
56%
18%
Clean sheet %
31%
42%
Over 2.5 %
50%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Cerro
Home (8)
—
Wanderers
Away (7)
1.13
PPG
0.86
25%
Win %
29%
0.63
Goals / game
1.00
0.75
Conceded / game
1.86
38%
BTTS %
61%
31%
Clean sheet %
22%
19%
Over 2.5 %
61%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Cerro | Home | Away | Wanderers | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 67% | 69% | 65% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 9% | 6% | 12% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 3% | 0% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 6% |
| Failed To Score | 33% | 31% | 35% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
Goals Conceded
| Cerro | Home | Away | Wanderers | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 82% | 69% | 94% | 69% | 61% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 39% | 19% | 59% | 44% | 28% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 21% | 0% | 41% | 19% | 11% | 28% |
| Clean Sheets | 18% | 31% | 6% | 31% | 39% | 22% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Cerro | Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 81% |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 19% |
| Over 4.5 | 3% | 14% |
| BTTS | 48% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 9% | 11% |
| BTTS & Draw | 18% | 17% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 30% | 39% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 12% | 11% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Cerro | Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 18% | 25% |
| Draw 1st Half | 58% | 44% |
| Loss 1st Half | 24% | 31% |
| Scored 1st Half | 45% | 44% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 42% | 47% |
| Win 2nd Half | 15% | 31% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 27% | 28% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 58% | 42% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 30% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 67% | 56% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 61% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 36% |
Recent Venue Form
Cerro (H)L
Deportivo Maldonado1–2
Deportivo Maldonado1–2L
Penarol1–2
Penarol1–2L
Cerrito0–2
Cerrito0–2W
Racing Montevideo1–0
Racing Montevideo1–0W
Albion FC2–1
Albion FC2–1WRacing Montevideo1–0
Racing Montevideo1–0Wanderers (A)D
Danubio1–1
Danubio1–1LDeportivo Maldonado1–4
Deportivo Maldonado1–4LDeportivo Maldonado0–2
Deportivo Maldonado0–2L
Atletico Torque1–5
Atletico Torque1–5W
Defensor Sporting1–0
Defensor Sporting1–0LPenarol1–5
Penarol1–5Head to Head · 31 matches
11
Cerro
35%
8
Draws
26%
12
Wanderers
39%
68%
Over 1.5
21/31
48%
Over 2.5
15/31
23%
Over 3.5
7/31
55%
BTTS
17/31
01/09/26Cerro
Wanderers
1–1Cerro28/03/26Cerro
Wanderers
3–0Cerro26/09/25Cerro
Wanderers
0–1Cerro01/06/25Wanderers
Cerro
1–2Wanderers31/03/25Wanderers
Cerro
2–1Wanderers16/08/24Cerro
Wanderers
1–0Cerro18/02/24Wanderers
Cerro
1–1Wanderers03/11/23Wanderers
Cerro
0–1Wanderers25/03/23Cerro
Wanderers
3–0Cerro26/01/23Cerro
Wanderers
0–0Cerro29/03/21Cerro
Wanderers
1–1Cerro10/10/20Wanderers
Cerro
1–1Wanderers05/12/19Cerro
Wanderers
0–2Cerro31/08/19Cerro
Wanderers
0–1Cerro02/06/19Wanderers
Cerro
3–0Wanderers30/05/19Wanderers
Cerro
0–1Wanderers23/05/19Cerro
Wanderers
0–0Cerro28/10/18Wanderers
Cerro
1–1Wanderers28/04/18Cerro
Wanderers
0–1Cerro08/11/17Cerro
Wanderers
2–3Cerro| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 65 | 41 | 11 | 13 | +55 | 134 |
| 2 |  Club Nacional | 66 | 38 | 14 | 14 | +48 | 125 |
| 4 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 66 | 29 | 21 | 16 | +24 | 108 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | +17 | 52 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 66 | 28 | 22 | 16 | +14 | 106 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 65 | 29 | 15 | 21 | +22 | 102 |
| 7 |  Juventud | 66 | 27 | 15 | 24 | +2 | 96 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 66 | 25 | 18 | 23 | -4 | 93 |
| 9 |  Central Espanol | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 |  Boston River | 66 | 22 | 19 | 25 | -1 | 85 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 |  Cerro Largo | 66 | 20 | 22 | 24 | -4 | 82 |
| 12 | Cerro | 66 | 21 | 16 | 29 | -29 | 78 |
| 14 | Wanderers | 66 | 18 | 21 | 27 | -21 | 75 |
| 15 | Danubio | 66 | 14 | 27 | 25 | -14 | 69 |
| 16 |  Progreso | 66 | 17 | 13 | 36 | -41 | 64 |
Team Insights
Cerro- ●Cerro have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Cerro failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Cerro have lost 10 of their 15 away matches.
- ●77% of Cerro's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●Cerro have scored 65% of their goals in the first half.
Wanderers- ●Wanderers have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Wanderers have been undefeated in their last 8 home matches.
- ●Wanderers have scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
- ●Wanderers have kept a clean sheet in 7 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Wanderers failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Wanderers have won 6 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Wanderers have scored in 13 of their 16 away matches.
- ●72% of Wanderers's goals conceded were conceded away.
Season Schedule
CerroLHPenarol1–2
Penarol1–2WAProgreso3–1
Progreso3–1WHRacing Montevideo1–0
Racing Montevideo1–0DABoston River1–1
Boston River1–1LALiverpool Montevideo0–4
Liverpool Montevideo0–4WHAlbion FC2–1
Albion FC2–1–AJuventud27/09
Juventud27/09–HWanderers04/10
Wanderers04/10WanderersDADanubio1–1
Danubio1–1DHClub Nacional1–1
Club Nacional1–1LADeportivo Maldonado0–2
Deportivo Maldonado0–2WHCentral Espanol3–0
Central Espanol3–0LAAtletico Torque1–5
Atletico Torque1–5DHCerro Largo1–1
Cerro Largo1–1–HAlbion FC28/09
Albion FC28/09–ACerro04/10
Cerro04/10Top Scorers
CerroA. Cambon6 ⚽
A. Macelli3 ⚽
J. Amaro3 ⚽
A. Severo3 ⚽
B. Aleman2 ⚽
A. Miranda1 ⚽
WanderersL. Cosentino9 ⚽
J. Zeballos5 ⚽
F. Labandeira4 ⚽
J. Luna4 ⚽
J. Alberti2 ⚽
L. Zazpe2 ⚽
Cards Given
CerroD. Suarez10 🟨
Cristian Barros6 🟨
A. Macelli6 🟨
B. Aleman5 🟨
Alejo Macelli5 🟨
Jairo Amaro5 🟨
WanderersDarlin Mencía9 🟨
5 🟨
L. Zazpe5 🟨
G. Freitas5 🟨
Gonzalo Freitas5 🟨
L. N. Olivera Moreira4 🟨