Racing Montevideo vs Penarol — Primera División
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Racing Montevideo and Penarol meet in the Primera División 2026 season on 4 October 2026. Racing Montevideo have recorded 16 wins from 35 matches this season (46% win rate), averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 46% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 34%; and clean sheets in 37% of games. Penarol have won 45% of their 44 matches, with 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 52%, Over 2.5 at 41%, and clean sheets at 34%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.20 for Racing Montevideo and 1.18 for Penarol. The models give Racing Montevideo a 36% win probability, with a draw at 29% and an Penarol win at 35%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 43% and BTTS at 49%.
Season Statistics
Racing Montevideo—
Penarol1º
Position
4º
2.07
PPG
1.80
60%
Win %
53%
1.53
Goals / game
1.53
0.93
Conceded / game
1.07
46%
BTTS %
52%
37%
Clean sheet %
34%
34%
Over 2.5 %
41%
7.0
Avg corners
4.0
18.0
Avg shots
13.3
1.0
Avg shots on target
4.0
1.0
Avg yellow cards
3.2
11.0
Avg fouls
10.7
58.0%
Avg possession
42.8%
Home vs Away
Racing Montevideo
Home (8)
—
Penarol
Away (7)
1.88
PPG
2.14
50%
Win %
71%
1.63
Goals / game
1.43
1.00
Conceded / game
0.71
53%
BTTS %
44%
47%
Clean sheet %
44%
35%
Over 2.5 %
28%
7.0
Avg corners
4.0
18.0
Avg shots
13.3
1.0
Avg shots on target
4.0
1.0
Avg yellow cards
3.2
58.0%
Avg possession
42.8%
Goals Scored
| Racing Montevideo | Home | Away | Penarol | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 71% | 94% | 50% | 77% | 73% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 34% | 41% | 28% | 41% | 42% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 9% | 12% | 6% | 18% | 23% | 11% |
| Failed To Score | 29% | 6% | 50% | 23% | 27% | 17% |
Goals Conceded
| Racing Montevideo | Home | Away | Penarol | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 63% | 53% | 72% | 66% | 73% | 56% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 17% | 18% | 17% | 20% | 19% | 22% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 9% | 12% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 37% | 47% | 28% | 34% | 27% | 44% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Racing Montevideo | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89% | 91% |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 34% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 20% |
| Over 4.5 | 9% | 5% |
| BTTS | 46% | 52% |
| BTTS & Win | 20% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 20% | 25% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 29% | 34% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 6% | 7% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Racing Montevideo | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 29% | 32% |
| Draw 1st Half | 54% | 36% |
| Loss 1st Half | 17% | 32% |
| Scored 1st Half | 49% | 39% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 37% | 45% |
| Win 2nd Half | 29% | 45% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 49% | 41% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 23% | 14% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 43% | 57% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 34% | 30% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 63% | 70% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 26% | 27% |
Recent Venue Form
Racing Montevideo (H)W
Boston River3–2
Boston River3–2L
Central Espanol2–4
Central Espanol2–4W
Albion FC1–0
Albion FC1–0W
Club Nacional2–0
Club Nacional2–0WBoston River1–0
Boston River1–0DPenarol1–1
Penarol1–1Penarol (A)D
Danubio1–1
Danubio1–1W
Cerro2–1
Cerro2–1WDanubio4–0
Danubio4–0D
Atenas2–2
Atenas2–2D
Deportivo Maldonado0–0
Deportivo Maldonado0–0DRacing Montevideo1–1
Racing Montevideo1–1Number of Corners
7.0
Corners / Match
1 games
League Avg
0.0
0 games
7.3
Corners / Match
6 games
| Match Corners | Racing Montevideo | Penarol | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 100% | 83% | — |
| Over 7 | 0% | 67% | — |
| Over 8 | 0% | 33% | — |
| Over 9 | 0% | 17% | — |
| Over 10 | 0% | 17% | — |
| Over 11 | 0% | 0% | — |
| Over 12 | 0% | 0% | — |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | — |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Racing Montevideo | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 7.0 | 4.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 0.0 | 3.3 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 100% | 83% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 100% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 100% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 0% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 0% | 67% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 0% | 33% |
Head to Head · 26 matches
4
Racing Montevideo
15%
9
Draws
35%
13
Penarol
50%
88%
Over 1.5
23/26
58%
Over 2.5
15/26
46%
Over 3.5
12/26
73%
BTTS
19/26
12/07/26Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1–1Penarol29/03/26Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1–2Racing Montevideo20/01/26Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1–0Racing Montevideo31/08/25Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1–4Penarol09/03/25Racing Montevideo
Penarol
0–2Racing Montevideo30/09/24Racing Montevideo
Penarol
0–0Racing Montevideo16/06/24Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1–1Racing Montevideo15/03/24Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1–2Penarol02/12/23Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1–1Racing Montevideo08/05/23Penarol
Racing Montevideo
0–2Penarol17/10/19Penarol
Racing Montevideo
3–3Penarol23/03/19Racing Montevideo
Penarol
2–2Racing Montevideo21/07/18Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1–1Racing Montevideo04/02/18Penarol
Racing Montevideo
0–2Penarol03/12/17Racing Montevideo
Penarol
4–0Racing Montevideo14/05/17Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1–3Penarol13/11/16Penarol
Racing Montevideo
2–5Penarol19/03/16Penarol
Racing Montevideo
0–1Penarol19/09/15Racing Montevideo
Penarol
3–1Racing Montevideo07/06/15Penarol
Racing Montevideo
2–2Penarol| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 65 | 41 | 11 | 13 | +55 | 134 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 66 | 38 | 14 | 14 | +48 | 125 |
| 4 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 66 | 29 | 21 | 16 | +24 | 108 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | +17 | 52 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 66 | 28 | 22 | 16 | +14 | 106 |
| 6 |  Atletico Torque | 65 | 29 | 15 | 21 | +22 | 102 |
| 7 |  Juventud | 66 | 27 | 15 | 24 | +2 | 96 |
| 8 |  Defensor Sporting | 66 | 25 | 18 | 23 | -4 | 93 |
| 9 | Central Espanol | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Boston River | 66 | 22 | 19 | 25 | -1 | 85 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 |  Cerro Largo | 66 | 20 | 22 | 24 | -4 | 82 |
| 12 | Cerro | 66 | 21 | 16 | 29 | -29 | 78 |
| 14 |  Wanderers | 66 | 18 | 21 | 27 | -21 | 75 |
| 15 | Danubio | 66 | 14 | 27 | 25 | -14 | 69 |
| 16 |  Progreso | 66 | 17 | 13 | 36 | -41 | 64 |
Team Insights
Racing Montevideo- ●Racing Montevideo have won their last 4 home matches.
- ●Racing Montevideo have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Racing Montevideo have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Racing Montevideo have scored in 14 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Racing Montevideo have won 5 of their 14 away matches.
- ●63% of Racing Montevideo's goals have been scored at home.
Penarol- ●Penarol have won their last 3 matches.
- ●Penarol have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Penarol have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Penarol failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Penarol have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their 13 away matches.
- ●Penarol have won 9 of their 13 away matches.
- ●Penarol have scored in 11 of their 13 away matches.
- ●71% of Penarol's goals conceded were conceded at home.
Season Schedule
Racing MontevideoDALiverpool Montevideo0–0
Liverpool Montevideo0–0WHBoston River3–2
Boston River3–2LACerro0–1
Cerro0–1WHAlbion FC1–0
Albion FC1–0DADanubio0–0
Danubio0–0WHClub Nacional2–0
Club Nacional2–0–AProgreso26/09
Progreso26/09–HPenarol04/10
Penarol04/10PenarolWACerro2–1
Cerro2–1WHAlbion FC3–1
Albion FC3–1WADanubio4–0
Danubio4–0LHClub Nacional0–1
Club Nacional0–1DADeportivo Maldonado0–0
Deportivo Maldonado0–0WHCentral Espanol2–1
Central Espanol2–1–HBoston River26/09
Boston River26/09–AAtletico Torque30/09
Atletico Torque30/09–ARacing Montevideo04/10
Racing Montevideo04/10Top Scorers
Racing MontevideoT. Habib6 ⚽
S. Da Silva5 ⚽
F. Alvarez4 ⚽
A. Vazquez4 ⚽
E. Da Silva3 ⚽
F. Suarez3 ⚽
PenarolM. Arezo14 ⚽
A. Hernandez7 ⚽
L. Umpierrez6 ⚽
L. Angulo4 ⚽
C. Jaime4 ⚽
M. Olivera4 ⚽
Cards Given
Racing MontevideoSebastián da Silva6 🟨
Álex Vázquez5 🟨
Y. Oyarzo5 🟨
M. Ferreira5 🟨
Tomas Habib5 🟨
Guillermo Cotugno4 🟨
PenarolEric Remedi9 🟨
L. Ferreira7 🟨
Maximiliano Olivera6 🟨
Washington Aguerre6 🟨
Lucas Ferreira6 🟨
Mauricio Lemos5 🟨