Merw vs Ahal — Ýokary Liga
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Merw and Ahal meet in the Ýokary Liga 2026 season on 11 November 2026. Merw have recorded 6 wins from 21 matches this season (29% win rate), averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.62 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 48% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 62%; and clean sheets in 14% of games. Ahal have won 59% of their 22 matches, with 1.82 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 27%, Over 2.5 at 64%, and clean sheets at 55%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.39 for Merw and 2.32 for Ahal. The models give Merw a 19% win probability, with a draw at 21% and an Ahal win at 59%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 71% and BTTS at 68%.
Season Statistics
Merw
AhalHome vs Away
Goals Scored
| Merw | Home | Away | Ahal | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 57% | 64% | 50% | 68% | 58% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 33% | 55% | 10% | 45% | 33% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 10% | 18% | 0% | 45% | 33% | 60% |
| Failed To Score | 43% | 36% | 50% | 32% | 42% | 20% |
Goals Conceded
| Merw | Home | Away | Ahal | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 86% | 91% | 80% | 45% | 33% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 62% | 55% | 70% | 32% | 33% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 33% | 27% | 40% | 18% | 25% | 10% |
| Clean Sheets | 14% | 9% | 20% | 55% | 67% | 40% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Merw | Ahal | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 41% |
| Over 4.5 | 33% | 9% |
| BTTS | 48% | 27% |
| BTTS & Win | 19% | 18% |
| BTTS & Draw | 10% | 0% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 43% | 27% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 19% | 36% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Merw | Ahal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 25% | 6% |
| Draw 1st Half | 50% | 72% |
| Loss 1st Half | 25% | 22% |
| Scored 1st Half | 25% | 22% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 31% | 33% |
| Win 2nd Half | 19% | 56% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 38% | 28% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 44% | 17% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 63% | 61% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 69% | 33% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 50% | 39% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 25% | 22% |
Recent Venue Form
Merw (H)
Arkadag0–5
Köpetdag Aşgabat2–2
Aşgabat3–2
Nebitci0–1
Şagadam2–0
Altyn Asyr0–2Ahal (A)Aşgabat4–3Şagadam1–2Arkadag1–2Nebitci4–0Merw3–1Köpetdag Aşgabat4–0Head to Head · 25 matches
MerwAhalMerwAhalMerwMerwAhalMerwAhalMerwMerwAhalAhalMerwAhalAhalMerwAhalMerwMerw| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | +85 | 72 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 21 | 15 | 2 | 4 | +18 | 47 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | +22 | 42 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -16 | 22 |
| 5 | Nebitci | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -36 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -30 | 14 |
Team Insights
Merw- ●Merw failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 11 home matches.
- ●Merw failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 of their 10 away matches.
- ●Merw have lost 7 of their 10 away matches.
- ●73% of Merw's goals have been scored at home.
- ●76% of Merw's points have been earned at home.
Ahal- ●Ahal have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Ahal have scored in each of their last 8 away matches.
- ●Ahal have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Ahal have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their 12 home matches.
- ●Ahal have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 10 away matches.
- ●Ahal have won 6 of their 10 away matches.
- ●Ahal have scored in 8 of their 10 away matches.
Season Schedule
MerwArkadag0–5Şagadam2–0Köpetdag Aşgabat2–2Aşgabat3–2Ahal0–4Nebitci0–1Nebitci17/10Altyn Asyr21/10Aşgabat01/11AhalAltyn Asyr0–2Arkadag0–4Aşgabat4–3Nebitci3–0Şagadam1–2Merw4–0Altyn Asyr01/11Şagadam07/11Merw11/11