Ahal vs Aşgabat — Ýokary Liga
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Ahal and Aşgabat meet in the Ýokary Liga 2026 season on 29 November 2026. Ahal have recorded 13 wins from 24 matches this season (54% win rate), averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 33% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 67%; and clean sheets in 50% of games. Aşgabat have won 18% of their 22 matches, with 1.27 goals scored and 2.32 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 64%, Over 2.5 at 64%, and clean sheets at 14%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.03 for Ahal and 1.27 for Aşgabat. The models give Ahal a 62% win probability, with a draw at 22% and an Aşgabat win at 17%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 64% and BTTS at 62%.
Season Statistics
Ahal—
Aşgabat3º
Position
7º
1.91
PPG
0.68
59%
Win %
18%
2.27
Goals / game
1.23
1.27
Conceded / game
2.36
33%
BTTS %
64%
50%
Clean sheet %
14%
67%
Over 2.5 %
64%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Ahal
Home (12)
—
Aşgabat
Away (11)
1.92
PPG
0.36
58%
Win %
9%
1.92
Goals / game
1.09
1.33
Conceded / game
2.36
15%
BTTS %
64%
62%
Clean sheet %
9%
54%
Over 2.5 %
73%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Ahal | Home | Away | Aşgabat | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 71% | 62% | 82% | 77% | 82% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 46% | 38% | 55% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 42% | 31% | 55% | 14% | 18% | 9% |
| Failed To Score | 29% | 38% | 18% | 23% | 18% | 27% |
Goals Conceded
| Ahal | Home | Away | Aşgabat | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 50% | 38% | 64% | 86% | 82% | 91% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 38% | 38% | 36% | 59% | 45% | 73% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 21% | 23% | 18% | 50% | 45% | 55% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 62% | 36% | 14% | 18% | 9% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Ahal | Aşgabat | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 41% |
| Over 4.5 | 13% | 32% |
| BTTS | 33% | 64% |
| BTTS & Win | 17% | 5% |
| BTTS & Draw | 4% | 14% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 33% | 14% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Ahal | Aşgabat | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 9% | 11% |
| Draw 1st Half | 68% | 56% |
| Loss 1st Half | 23% | 33% |
| Scored 1st Half | 23% | 39% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 32% | 56% |
| Win 2nd Half | 50% | 11% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 23% | 33% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 27% | 56% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 59% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 45% | 72% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 41% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 23% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
Ahal (H)D
Paro2–2
Paro2–2L
Altyn Asyr0–2
Altyn Asyr0–2L
Arkadag0–4
Arkadag0–4W
Nebitci3–0
Nebitci3–0W
Merw4–0
Merw4–0W
Köpetdag Aşgabat3–0
Köpetdag Aşgabat3–0Aşgabat (A)LMerw2–3
Merw2–3LArkadag0–3
Arkadag0–3DNebitci1–1
Nebitci1–1LAltyn Asyr1–2
Altyn Asyr1–2LAhal3–4
Ahal3–4LKöpetdag Aşgabat1–3
Köpetdag Aşgabat1–3Head to Head · 23 matches
19
Ahal
83%
1
Draws
4%
3
Aşgabat
13%
100%
Over 1.5
23/23
91%
Over 2.5
21/23
52%
Over 3.5
12/23
61%
BTTS
14/23
19/09/26Ahal
Aşgabat
3–4Ahal20/06/26Aşgabat
Ahal
4–3Aşgabat10/05/26Ahal
Aşgabat
0–3Ahal15/12/25Aşgabat
Ahal
1–2Aşgabat04/10/25Ahal
Aşgabat
1–1Ahal13/05/25Aşgabat
Ahal
4–0Aşgabat19/04/25Ahal
Aşgabat
1–4Ahal03/10/24Ahal
Aşgabat
1–2Ahal16/08/24Aşgabat
Ahal
3–0Aşgabat22/05/24Ahal
Aşgabat
1–2Ahal17/04/24Aşgabat
Ahal
4–0Aşgabat29/10/23Aşgabat
Ahal
2–1Aşgabat23/08/23Ahal
Aşgabat
0–4Ahal12/05/23Aşgabat
Ahal
0–2Aşgabat20/12/22Aşgabat
Ahal
4–1Aşgabat18/11/22Ahal
Aşgabat
0–3Ahal15/10/22Aşgabat
Ahal
4–0Aşgabat31/08/22Ahal
Aşgabat
2–3Ahal16/12/21Ahal
Aşgabat
1–2Ahal15/11/21Aşgabat
Ahal
3–1Aşgabat| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 | +89 | 75 |
| 2 | Altyn Asyr | 22 | 16 | 2 | 4 | +19 | 50 |
| 3 | Ahal | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | +22 | 42 |
| 4 | Nebitci | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -17 | 25 |
| 5 |  Şagadam | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -18 | 22 |
| 6 | Merw | 22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -39 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 15 |
| 8 | Köpetdag Aşgabat | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -31 | 14 |
Team Insights
Ahal- ●Ahal have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Ahal have scored in each of their last 8 away matches.
- ●Ahal have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Ahal have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their 12 home matches.
- ●Ahal have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 10 away matches.
- ●Ahal have won 6 of their 10 away matches.
- ●Ahal have scored in 8 of their 10 away matches.
Aşgabat- ●Aşgabat have failed to win in their last 6 matches.
- ●Aşgabat failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Aşgabat have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Aşgabat have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Aşgabat failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Aşgabat failed to keep a clean sheet in 9 of their 11 home matches.
- ●Aşgabat have lost 6 of their 11 home matches.
- ●Aşgabat failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 11 away matches.
- ●Aşgabat have lost 9 of their 11 away matches.
- ●Aşgabat have scored in 8 of their 11 away matches.
Season Schedule
AhalLHAltyn Asyr0–2
Altyn Asyr0–2LHArkadag0–4
Arkadag0–4WAAşgabat4–3
Aşgabat4–3WHNebitci3–0
Nebitci3–0LAŞagadam1–2
Şagadam1–2WHMerw4–0
Merw4–0–AAltyn Asyr01/11
Altyn Asyr01/11–HŞagadam07/11
Şagadam07/11–AMerw11/11
Merw11/11AşgabatLHAltyn Asyr2–4
Altyn Asyr2–4LHAhal3–4
Ahal3–4DHKöpetdag Aşgabat1–1
Köpetdag Aşgabat1–1LAMerw2–3
Merw2–3LAArkadag0–3
Arkadag0–3DANebitci1–1
Nebitci1–1–HNebitci24/10
Nebitci24/10–HMerw01/11
Merw01/11–AKöpetdag Aşgabat07/11
Köpetdag Aşgabat07/11Top Scorers
AhalA. Jumadurdyyew1 ⚽
E. Annayev1 ⚽
Y. Govshudov1 ⚽
AşgabatCards Given
AhalH. Bashimov1 🟨
Y. Garajayev1 🟨
Aşgabat