Cerro vs Cerro Largo — Primera División
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Cerro and Cerro Largo meet in the Primera División 2026 season on 16 October 2026. Cerro have recorded 10 wins from 36 matches this season (28% win rate), averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 47% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 42%; and clean sheets in 19% of games. Cerro Largo have won 26% of their 39 matches, with 0.97 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 49%, Over 2.5 at 36%, and clean sheets at 23%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.34 for Cerro and 1.11 for Cerro Largo. The models give Cerro a 45% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Cerro Largo win at 27%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 41% and BTTS at 46%.
Season Statistics
Cerro—
Cerro Largo16º
Position
12º
0.67
PPG
1.13
13%
Win %
33%
0.53
Goals / game
1.07
1.60
Conceded / game
1.27
47%
BTTS %
49%
19%
Clean sheet %
23%
42%
Over 2.5 %
36%
3.0
Avg corners
4.0
13.5
Avg shots
7.5
6.0
Avg shots on target
2.0
3.5
Avg yellow cards
4.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
56.0%
Avg possession
50.0%
Home vs Away
Cerro
Home (8)
—
Cerro Largo
Away (8)
1.13
PPG
1.25
25%
Win %
38%
0.63
Goals / game
0.88
0.75
Conceded / game
1.25
35%
BTTS %
42%
29%
Clean sheet %
21%
18%
Over 2.5 %
42%
3.0
Avg corners
4.0
13.5
Avg shots
7.5
6.0
Avg shots on target
2.0
3.5
Avg yellow cards
4.0
56.0%
Avg possession
50.0%
Goals Scored
| Cerro | Home | Away | Cerro Largo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 64% | 65% | 63% | 67% | 75% | 58% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 11% | 6% | 16% | 21% | 25% | 16% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 6% | 0% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
| Failed To Score | 36% | 35% | 37% | 33% | 25% | 42% |
Goals Conceded
| Cerro | Home | Away | Cerro Largo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 81% | 71% | 89% | 77% | 75% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 42% | 24% | 58% | 36% | 25% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 19% | 0% | 37% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
| Clean Sheets | 19% | 29% | 11% | 23% | 25% | 21% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Cerro | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97% | 95% |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 69% |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 15% |
| Over 4.5 | 6% | 5% |
| BTTS | 47% | 49% |
| BTTS & Win | 11% | 8% |
| BTTS & Draw | 17% | 23% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 31% | 28% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 11% | 8% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Cerro | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 17% | 26% |
| Draw 1st Half | 56% | 36% |
| Loss 1st Half | 28% | 38% |
| Scored 1st Half | 42% | 41% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 44% | 54% |
| Win 2nd Half | 17% | 31% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 31% | 31% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 53% | 38% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 31% | 38% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 64% | 46% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 61% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 21% |
Recent Venue Form
Cerro (H)L
Wanderers0–2
Wanderers0–2L
Deportivo Maldonado1–2
Deportivo Maldonado1–2L
Penarol1–2
Penarol1–2L
Cerrito0–2
Cerrito0–2W
Racing Montevideo1–0
Racing Montevideo1–0W
Albion FC2–1
Albion FC2–1Cerro Largo (A)L
Danubio1–2
Danubio1–2LDeportivo Maldonado0–2
Deportivo Maldonado0–2L
Atletico Torque1–2
Atletico Torque1–2L
Plaza Colonia1–2
Plaza Colonia1–2DWanderers1–1
Wanderers1–1LPenarol0–3
Penarol0–3Number of Corners
6.0
Corners / Match
2 games
League Avg
7.8
17 games
8.0
Corners / Match
2 games
| Match Corners | Cerro | Cerro Largo | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 0% | 100% | 71% |
| Over 7 | 0% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 8 | 0% | 50% | 35% |
| Over 9 | 0% | 0% | 18% |
| Over 10 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| Over 11 | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Cerro | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 50% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 50% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 50% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 50% | 100% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 50% | 0% |
Head to Head · 21 matches
3
Cerro
14%
6
Draws
29%
12
Cerro Largo
57%
62%
Over 1.5
13/21
38%
Over 2.5
8/21
19%
Over 3.5
4/21
48%
BTTS
10/21
29/05/26Cerro
Cerro Largo
2–0Cerro10/04/26Cerro
Cerro Largo
1–1Cerro07/09/25Cerro Largo
Cerro
0–1Cerro Largo19/06/25Cerro Largo
Cerro
2–1Cerro Largo17/03/25Cerro
Cerro Largo
0–0Cerro28/09/24Cerro
Cerro Largo
3–1Cerro14/07/24Cerro Largo
Cerro
0–1Cerro Largo24/03/24Cerro Largo
Cerro
1–1Cerro Largo30/11/23Cerro
Cerro Largo
0–0Cerro02/07/23Cerro
Cerro Largo
0–1Cerro29/04/23Cerro Largo
Cerro
0–0Cerro Largo24/03/21Cerro Largo
Cerro
0–1Cerro Largo07/10/20Cerro
Cerro Largo
2–1Cerro10/10/19Cerro Largo
Cerro
0–2Cerro Largo17/08/19Cerro
Cerro Largo
2–0Cerro16/03/19Cerro
Cerro Largo
4–1Cerro30/03/14Cerro Largo
Cerro
2–1Cerro Largo03/11/13Cerro
Cerro Largo
2–1Cerro14/04/13Cerro
Cerro Largo
3–1Cerro21/10/12Cerro Largo
Cerro
2–2Cerro Largo| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 69 | 43 | 13 | 13 | +57 | 142 |
| 2 |  Club Nacional | 69 | 41 | 14 | 14 | +53 | 134 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | +22 | 59 |
| 4 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 69 | 31 | 22 | 16 | +26 | 115 |
| 5 | Atletico Torque | 69 | 30 | 16 | 23 | +19 | 106 |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 69 | 28 | 22 | 19 | +10 | 106 |
| 7 |  Juventud | 69 | 28 | 17 | 24 | +4 | 101 |
| 8 |  Defensor Sporting | 69 | 26 | 18 | 25 | -5 | 96 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 40 |
| 9 |  Boston River | 69 | 23 | 20 | 26 | 0 | 89 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 69 | 20 | 22 | 27 | -8 | 82 |
| 12 |  Central Espanol | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 13 | Cerro | 69 | 22 | 17 | 30 | -30 | 82 |
| 14 | Wanderers | 69 | 20 | 21 | 28 | -20 | 81 |
| 15 | Danubio | 69 | 15 | 27 | 27 | -15 | 72 |
| 16 |  Progreso | 69 | 18 | 14 | 37 | -41 | 68 |
Team Insights
Cerro- ●Cerro have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Cerro failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Cerro failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 of their 17 away matches.
- ●74% of Cerro's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●Cerro have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Cerro Largo- ●Cerro Largo have failed to win in their last 11 matches.
- ●Cerro Largo have lost their last 4 matches.
- ●Cerro Largo have failed to win in their last 7 home matches.
- ●Cerro Largo have lost their last 3 away matches.
- ●Cerro Largo failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Cerro Largo have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Cerro Largo failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Cerro Largo failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 16 away matches.
- ●62% of Cerro Largo's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
CerroWADefensor Sporting3–2
Defensor Sporting3–2LHWanderers0–2
Wanderers0–2DAJuventud0–0
Juventud0–0LHPenarol1–2
Penarol1–2WAProgreso3–1
Progreso3–1WHRacing Montevideo1–0
Racing Montevideo1–0–HCerro Largo16/10
Cerro Largo16/10Cerro LargoLHAlbion FC0–1
Albion FC0–1LADanubio1–2
Danubio1–2LHClub Nacional0–2
Club Nacional0–2LADeportivo Maldonado0–2
Deportivo Maldonado0–2DHCentral Espanol0–0
Central Espanol0–0LAAtletico Torque1–2
Atletico Torque1–2–ACerro16/10
Cerro16/10Top Scorers
CerroA. Cambon6 ⚽
J. Amaro3 ⚽
A. Macelli3 ⚽
A. Severo3 ⚽
B. Aleman2 ⚽
Agustin Miranda1 ⚽
Cerro LargoA. Pandiani9 ⚽
D. Daguerre5 ⚽
T. Correa5 ⚽
F. Sellecchia3 ⚽
B. Barone2 ⚽
B. Hernandez2 ⚽
Cards Given
CerroD. Suarez10 🟨
B. Aleman6 🟨
A. Macelli6 🟨
Cristian Barros6 🟨
C. Barros5 🟨
Alejo Macelli5 🟨
Cerro LargoA. Piegas7 🟨
Lucas Correa5 🟨
S. Franca4 🟨
L. Correa4 🟨
A. Hernandez4 🟨
Santiago Marcel4 🟨