Progreso vs Juventud — Primera División
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Parque Abraham Paladino·Montevideo·Uruguay·7,500
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Progreso and Juventud meet in the Primera División 2026 season on 17 October 2026. Progreso have recorded 10 wins from 40 matches this season (25% win rate), averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 48% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 43%; and clean sheets in 15% of games. Juventud have won 34% of their 50 matches, with 1.26 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 54%, Over 2.5 at 46%, and clean sheets at 30%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.32 for Progreso and 1.40 for Juventud. The models give Progreso a 32% win probability, with a draw at 27% and an Juventud win at 41%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51% and BTTS at 55%.
Season Statistics
Progreso—
Juventud15º
Position
14º
0.67
PPG
1.00
13%
Win %
27%
0.80
Goals / game
1.13
1.53
Conceded / game
1.47
48%
BTTS %
54%
15%
Clean sheet %
30%
43%
Over 2.5 %
46%
3.0
Avg corners
4.2
9.0
Avg shots
12.0
4.5
Avg shots on target
4.2
2.0
Avg yellow cards
1.6
0.0
Avg fouls
11.1
43.0%
Avg possession
50.6%
Home vs Away
Progreso
Home (8)
—
Juventud
Away (7)
0.63
PPG
0.71
13%
Win %
14%
0.88
Goals / game
1.29
1.75
Conceded / game
2.00
44%
BTTS %
71%
11%
Clean sheet %
21%
50%
Over 2.5 %
58%
3.0
Avg corners
4.2
9.0
Avg shots
12.0
4.5
Avg shots on target
4.2
2.0
Avg yellow cards
1.6
43.0%
Avg possession
50.6%
Goals Scored
| Progreso | Home | Away | Juventud | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 60% | 56% | 64% | 76% | 69% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 23% | 22% | 23% | 34% | 38% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 3% | 6% | 0% | 12% | 15% | 8% |
| Failed To Score | 40% | 44% | 36% | 24% | 31% | 17% |
Goals Conceded
| Progreso | Home | Away | Juventud | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 85% | 89% | 82% | 70% | 62% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 45% | 56% | 36% | 30% | 15% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 10% | 17% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 13% |
| Clean Sheets | 15% | 11% | 18% | 30% | 38% | 21% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Progreso | Juventud | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 22% |
| Over 4.5 | 5% | 6% |
| BTTS | 48% | 54% |
| BTTS & Win | 13% | 12% |
| BTTS & Draw | 15% | 24% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 40% | 38% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 3% | 8% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Progreso | Juventud | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 23% | 36% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 36% |
| Loss 1st Half | 45% | 28% |
| Scored 1st Half | 38% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 55% | 40% |
| Win 2nd Half | 13% | 24% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 55% | 46% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 33% | 30% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 40% | 46% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 57% | 46% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 78% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 28% | 32% |
Recent Venue Form
Progreso (H)W
Racing Montevideo2–1
Racing Montevideo2–1L
Club Nacional0–1
Club Nacional0–1L
Cerro1–3
Cerro1–3W
Danubio1–0
Danubio1–0L
CA River Plate0–2
CA River Plate0–2L
Deportivo Maldonado0–2
Deportivo Maldonado0–2Juventud (A)W
Plaza Colonia1–0
Plaza Colonia1–0D
Boston River0–0
Boston River0–0W
Albion FC3–1
Albion FC3–1DClub Nacional2–2
Club Nacional2–2L
Central Espanol0–3
Central Espanol0–3WCentral Espanol1–0
Central Espanol1–0Number of Corners
6.5
Corners / Match
2 games
League Avg
7.8
17 games
8.1
Corners / Match
14 games
| Match Corners | Progreso | Juventud | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 50% | 64% | 71% |
| Over 7 | 0% | 57% | 47% |
| Over 8 | 0% | 43% | 35% |
| Over 9 | 0% | 36% | 18% |
| Over 10 | 0% | 29% | 12% |
| Over 11 | 0% | 14% | 6% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 7% | 6% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Progreso | Juventud |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.0 | 4.2 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 50% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 50% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 0% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 100% | 79% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 50% | 43% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 0% | 43% |
Head to Head · 19 matches
8
Progreso
42%
4
Draws
21%
7
Juventud
37%
58%
Over 1.5
11/19
32%
Over 2.5
6/19
11%
Over 3.5
2/19
42%
BTTS
8/19
16/05/26Progreso
Juventud
2–0Progreso12/04/26Progreso
Juventud
1–0Progreso19/01/26Progreso
Juventud
0–1Progreso09/11/25Progreso
Juventud
1–1Progreso29/06/25Progreso
Juventud
2–0Progreso18/05/25Juventud
Progreso
1–2Juventud18/11/23Juventud
Progreso
2–1Juventud07/07/23Progreso
Juventud
1–1Progreso29/04/23Progreso
Juventud
1–5Progreso06/08/22Juventud
Progreso
0–1Juventud16/05/22Progreso
Juventud
0–0Progreso16/04/22Juventud
Progreso
2–1Juventud18/09/19Progreso
Juventud
1–2Progreso31/08/19Juventud
Progreso
0–0Juventud24/02/19Juventud
Progreso
1–0Juventud19/05/13Progreso
Juventud
4–2Progreso25/11/12Juventud
Progreso
0–1Juventud14/04/12Juventud
Progreso
2–0Juventud13/11/11Progreso
Juventud
0–1Progreso| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 69 | 43 | 13 | 13 | +57 | 142 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 69 | 41 | 14 | 14 | +53 | 134 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | +22 | 59 |
| 4 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 69 | 31 | 22 | 16 | +26 | 115 |
| 5 |  Atletico Torque | 69 | 30 | 16 | 23 | +19 | 106 |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 69 | 28 | 22 | 19 | +10 | 106 |
| 7 | Juventud | 69 | 28 | 17 | 24 | +4 | 101 |
| 8 |  Defensor Sporting | 69 | 26 | 18 | 25 | -5 | 96 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 40 |
| 9 | Boston River | 69 | 23 | 20 | 26 | 0 | 89 |
| 11 |  Cerro Largo | 69 | 20 | 22 | 27 | -8 | 82 |
| 12 | Central Espanol | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 13 | Cerro | 69 | 22 | 17 | 30 | -30 | 82 |
| 14 |  Wanderers | 69 | 20 | 21 | 28 | -20 | 81 |
| 15 | Danubio | 69 | 15 | 27 | 27 | -15 | 72 |
| 16 | Progreso | 69 | 18 | 14 | 37 | -41 | 68 |
Team Insights
Progreso- ●Progreso failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Progreso have scored in each of their last 7 matches.
- ●Progreso have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Progreso failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Progreso have lost 9 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Progreso failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 of their 17 away matches.
Juventud- ●Juventud have been undefeated in their last 8 matches.
- ●Juventud have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Juventud have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Juventud have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Juventud have been undefeated in their last 8 away matches.
- ●Juventud failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Juventud failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Juventud have scored in 13 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Juventud have scored 59% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
ProgresoDAPenarol1–1
Penarol1–1LALiverpool Montevideo2–3
Liverpool Montevideo2–3WHRacing Montevideo2–1
Racing Montevideo2–1WABoston River2–1
Boston River2–1LHCerro1–3
Cerro1–3WAAlbion FC1–0
Albion FC1–0–HJuventud17/10
Juventud17/10JuventudWHRacing Montevideo2–0
Racing Montevideo2–0DABoston River0–0
Boston River0–0DHCerro0–0
Cerro0–0WAAlbion FC3–1
Albion FC3–1DHDanubio1–1
Danubio1–1DAClub Nacional2–2
Club Nacional2–2–AProgreso17/10
Progreso17/10Top Scorers
ProgresoN. Lopez7 ⚽
D. Sanchez3 ⚽
F. De Leon3 ⚽
J. Dos Santos2 ⚽
G. Silva2 ⚽
F. Fernandez2 ⚽
JuventudF. Mimbacas12 ⚽
R. Peralta9 ⚽
B. Larregui5 ⚽
A. Cruz5 ⚽
F. Barrandeguy3 ⚽
G. Pereiro3 ⚽
Cards Given
ProgresoA. Cougo7 🟨
Mauro Martín6 🟨
Agustin Pinheiro5 🟨
F. Andueza4 🟨
Ayrton Cougo4 🟨
A. Ocampo4 🟨
JuventudRenzo Rabino7 🟨
Leonel Roldán6 🟨
Patricio Pernicone6 🟨
David Morosini6 🟨
Martín Cáceres5 🟨
Franco Risso5 🟨