Cerro Largo vs Progreso — Primera División
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Cerro Largo and Progreso meet in the Primera División 2026 season on 12 November 2026. Cerro Largo have recorded 11 wins from 43 matches this season (26% win rate), averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 49% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 35%; and clean sheets in 23% of games. Progreso have won 28% of their 43 matches, with 0.86 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 44%, Over 2.5 at 40%, and clean sheets at 19%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.25 for Cerro Largo and 1.21 for Progreso. The models give Cerro Largo a 39% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Progreso win at 34%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 44% and BTTS at 49%.
Season Statistics
Cerro Largo—
Progreso12º
Position
15º
1.13
PPG
0.67
33%
Win %
13%
1.07
Goals / game
0.80
1.27
Conceded / game
1.53
49%
BTTS %
44%
23%
Clean sheet %
19%
35%
Over 2.5 %
40%
3.8
Avg corners
3.8
6.6
Avg shots
7.6
2.2
Avg shots on target
3.6
2.8
Avg yellow cards
2.4
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
53.8%
Avg possession
45.2%
Home vs Away
Cerro Largo
Home (7)
—
Progreso
Away (7)
1.00
PPG
0.71
29%
Win %
14%
1.29
Goals / game
0.71
1.29
Conceded / game
1.29
52%
BTTS %
48%
29%
Clean sheet %
22%
29%
Over 2.5 %
35%
3.8
Avg corners
3.8
6.6
Avg shots
7.6
2.2
Avg shots on target
3.6
2.8
Avg yellow cards
2.4
53.8%
Avg possession
45.2%
Goals Scored
| Cerro Largo | Home | Away | Progreso | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 67% | 76% | 59% | 60% | 55% | 65% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 21% | 29% | 14% | 23% | 25% | 22% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 9% | 10% | 9% | 2% | 5% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 33% | 24% | 41% | 40% | 45% | 35% |
Goals Conceded
| Cerro Largo | Home | Away | Progreso | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 77% | 71% | 82% | 81% | 85% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 35% | 24% | 45% | 44% | 55% | 35% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 12% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 4% |
| Clean Sheets | 23% | 29% | 18% | 19% | 15% | 22% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Cerro Largo | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 98% |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 12% |
| Over 4.5 | 5% | 5% |
| BTTS | 49% | 44% |
| BTTS & Win | 7% | 12% |
| BTTS & Draw | 23% | 14% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 28% | 37% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 7% | 2% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Cerro Largo | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 23% | 21% |
| Draw 1st Half | 37% | 37% |
| Loss 1st Half | 40% | 42% |
| Scored 1st Half | 37% | 35% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 53% | 51% |
| Win 2nd Half | 33% | 16% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 30% | 51% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 37% | 33% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 42% | 42% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 47% | 56% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 74% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 21% | 26% |
Recent Venue Form
Cerro Largo (H)W
Boston River2–0
Boston River2–0L
Albion FC0–1
Albion FC0–1W
Rentistas1–0
Rentistas1–0L
Club Nacional0–2
Club Nacional0–2D
Central Espanol0–0
Central Espanol0–0D
Defensor Sporting1–1
Defensor Sporting1–1Progreso (A)W
Wanderers1–0
Wanderers1–0D
Penarol1–1
Penarol1–1L
Liverpool Montevideo2–3
Liverpool Montevideo2–3WBoston River2–1
Boston River2–1WAlbion FC1–0
Albion FC1–0LAlbion FC1–2
Albion FC1–2Number of Corners
7.0
Corners / Match
5 games
League Avg
8.6
41 games
9.0
Corners / Match
5 games
| Match Corners | Cerro Largo | Progreso | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 60% | 80% | 71% |
| Over 7 | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 8 | 40% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 9 | 0% | 20% | 27% |
| Over 10 | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| Over 11 | 0% | 20% | 15% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 20% | 15% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 20% | 12% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Cerro Largo | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.2 | 5.2 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 80% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 40% | 80% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 40% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 80% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 40% | 80% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 0% | 40% |
Head to Head · 20 matches
12
Cerro Largo
60%
5
Draws
25%
3
Progreso
15%
45%
Over 1.5
9/20
30%
Over 2.5
6/20
5%
Over 3.5
1/20
40%
BTTS
8/20
03/05/26Cerro Largo
Progreso
0–1Cerro Largo09/08/25Cerro Largo
Progreso
1–2Cerro Largo07/02/25Progreso
Cerro Largo
4–1Progreso30/11/24Progreso
Cerro Largo
2–1Progreso04/06/24Cerro Largo
Progreso
0–1Cerro Largo17/10/21Progreso
Cerro Largo
1–0Progreso19/06/21Cerro Largo
Progreso
0–0Cerro Largo14/03/21Cerro Largo
Progreso
1–0Cerro Largo12/09/20Cerro Largo
Progreso
1–2Cerro Largo21/11/19Cerro Largo
Progreso
0–1Cerro Largo19/05/19Progreso
Cerro Largo
0–0Progreso09/09/17Progreso
Cerro Largo
0–1Progreso22/04/17Cerro Largo
Progreso
2–0Cerro Largo24/09/16Progreso
Cerro Largo
1–0Progreso30/04/16Progreso
Cerro Largo
2–1Progreso14/11/15Cerro Largo
Progreso
1–1Cerro Largo28/03/15Progreso
Cerro Largo
0–0Progreso04/10/14Cerro Largo
Progreso
0–1Cerro Largo09/03/13Cerro Largo
Progreso
1–2Cerro Largo16/09/12Progreso
Cerro Largo
1–1Progreso| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 72 | 43 | 15 | 14 | +56 | 144 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 72 | 43 | 14 | 15 | +54 | 140 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | +22 | 63 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 72 | 34 | 22 | 16 | +30 | 124 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 72 | 30 | 23 | 19 | +15 | 113 |
| 6 |  Atletico Torque | 72 | 32 | 16 | 24 | +21 | 112 |
| 7 |  Juventud | 72 | 28 | 18 | 26 | 0 | 102 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 72 | 27 | 19 | 26 | -4 | 100 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | +3 | 47 |
| 10 | Boston River | 72 | 24 | 20 | 28 | -2 | 92 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 72 | 21 | 23 | 28 | -8 | 86 |
| 12 | Central Espanol | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | -13 | 41 |
| 13 |  Cerro | 72 | 22 | 18 | 32 | -33 | 83 |
| 14 | Wanderers | 72 | 20 | 22 | 30 | -24 | 82 |
| 15 |  Danubio | 72 | 16 | 27 | 29 | -16 | 75 |
| 16 | Progreso | 72 | 20 | 14 | 38 | -40 | 74 |
Team Insights
Cerro Largo- ●Cerro Largo failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Cerro Largo failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Cerro Largo failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 18 away matches.
Progreso- ●Progreso have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Progreso failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Progreso have lost 10 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Progreso failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 of their 18 away matches.
Season Schedule
Cerro LargoLARacing Montevideo1–3
Racing Montevideo1–3WHBoston River2–0
Boston River2–0DACerro1–1
Cerro1–1LHAlbion FC0–1
Albion FC0–1LADanubio1–2
Danubio1–2LHClub Nacional0–2
Club Nacional0–2–HProgreso12/11
Progreso12/11ProgresoLHDefensor Sporting0–2
Defensor Sporting0–2WAWanderers1–0
Wanderers1–0WHJuventud2–0
Juventud2–0DAPenarol1–1
Penarol1–1LALiverpool Montevideo2–3
Liverpool Montevideo2–3WHRacing Montevideo2–1
Racing Montevideo2–1–ACerro Largo12/11
Cerro Largo12/11Top Scorers
Cerro LargoA. Pandiani9 ⚽
D. Daguerre5 ⚽
T. Correa5 ⚽
F. Sellecchia3 ⚽
B. Barone2 ⚽
B. Hernandez2 ⚽
ProgresoN. Lopez7 ⚽
nahuel lopez4 ⚽
F. De Leon3 ⚽
D. Sanchez3 ⚽
G. Silva2 ⚽
J. Dos Santos2 ⚽
Cards Given
Cerro LargoA. Piegas7 🟨
Lucas Correa5 🟨
S. Franca4 🟨
L. Correa4 🟨
A. Hernandez4 🟨
Santiago Marcel4 🟨
ProgresoA. Cougo7 🟨
Mauro Martín6 🟨
Ayrton Cougo5 🟨
Agustin Pinheiro5 🟨
F. Andueza4 🟨
A. Ocampo4 🟨