Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro — Primera División
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Deportivo Maldonado and Cerro meet in the Primera División 2026 season on 14 November 2026. Deportivo Maldonado have recorded 23 wins from 41 matches this season (56% win rate), averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 49% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 46%; and clean sheets in 44% of games. Cerro have won 26% of their 39 matches, with 0.82 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 51%, Over 2.5 at 44%, and clean sheets at 18%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.97 for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.23 for Cerro. The models give Deportivo Maldonado a 58% win probability, with a draw at 21% and an Cerro win at 21%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 59% and BTTS at 54%.
Season Statistics
Deportivo Maldonado—
Cerro2º
Position
16º
1.93
PPG
0.67
60%
Win %
13%
1.60
Goals / game
0.53
1.07
Conceded / game
1.60
49%
BTTS %
51%
44%
Clean sheet %
18%
46%
Over 2.5 %
44%
6.2
Avg corners
3.4
10.2
Avg shots
8.8
4.4
Avg shots on target
4.2
2.4
Avg yellow cards
3.6
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
54.2%
Avg possession
52.8%
Home vs Away
Deportivo Maldonado
Home (7)
—
Cerro
Away (7)
2.57
PPG
0.14
86%
Win %
0%
1.86
Goals / game
0.43
0.86
Conceded / game
2.57
55%
BTTS %
60%
45%
Clean sheet %
10%
55%
Over 2.5 %
65%
6.2
Avg corners
3.4
10.2
Avg shots
8.8
4.4
Avg shots on target
4.2
2.4
Avg yellow cards
3.6
54.2%
Avg possession
52.8%
Goals Scored
| Deportivo Maldonado | Home | Away | Cerro | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 80% | 90% | 71% | 67% | 68% | 65% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 54% | 65% | 43% | 10% | 5% | 15% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 22% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 10% |
| Failed To Score | 20% | 10% | 29% | 33% | 32% | 35% |
Goals Conceded
| Deportivo Maldonado | Home | Away | Cerro | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 56% | 55% | 57% | 82% | 74% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 24% | 15% | 33% | 44% | 26% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 5% | 0% | 10% | 21% | 0% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 44% | 45% | 43% | 18% | 26% | 10% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88% | 97% |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 69% |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 21% |
| Over 4.5 | 15% | 5% |
| BTTS | 49% | 51% |
| BTTS & Win | 24% | 10% |
| BTTS & Draw | 12% | 18% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 39% | 33% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 7% | 10% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 37% | 18% |
| Draw 1st Half | 51% | 54% |
| Loss 1st Half | 12% | 28% |
| Scored 1st Half | 54% | 44% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 37% | 46% |
| Win 2nd Half | 51% | 15% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 34% | 31% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 15% | 54% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 59% | 31% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 32% | 67% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 66% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 32% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
Deportivo Maldonado (H)W
Danubio2–1
Danubio2–1W
Albion FC4–1
Albion FC4–1D
Liverpool Montevideo1–1
Liverpool Montevideo1–1W
Central Espanol3–0
Central Espanol3–0W
Cerro Largo2–0
Cerro Largo2–0W
Wanderers4–1
Wanderers4–1Cerro (A)L
Atletico Torque1–3
Atletico Torque1–3W
Defensor Sporting3–2
Defensor Sporting3–2D
Juventud0–0
Juventud0–0W
Progreso3–1
Progreso3–1DWanderers1–1
Wanderers1–1D
Boston River1–1
Boston River1–1Number of Corners
10.4
Corners / Match
5 games
League Avg
8.6
41 games
6.8
Corners / Match
5 games
| Match Corners | Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 60% | 40% | 71% |
| Over 7 | 60% | 20% | 54% |
| Over 8 | 40% | 20% | 49% |
| Over 9 | 40% | 0% | 27% |
| Over 10 | 40% | 0% | 20% |
| Over 11 | 40% | 0% | 15% |
| Over 12 | 40% | 0% | 15% |
| Over 13 | 40% | 0% | 12% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 6.2 | 3.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 100% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 40% | 40% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 80% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 40% | 60% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 40% | 60% |
Head to Head · 9 matches
6
Deportivo Maldonado
67%
2
Draws
22%
1
Cerro
11%
56%
Over 1.5
5/9
56%
Over 2.5
5/9
11%
Over 3.5
1/9
44%
BTTS
4/9
23/09/26Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
1–2Deportivo Maldonado02/05/26Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
0–1Deportivo Maldonado08/11/24Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
0–0Deportivo Maldonado05/05/24Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
3–0Cerro03/09/23Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
2–1Cerro17/07/23Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
1–2Cerro18/02/23Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
0–0Deportivo Maldonado13/03/21Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
2–3Deportivo Maldonado13/09/20Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
1–0Cerro| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 72 | 43 | 15 | 14 | +56 | 144 |
| 2 |  Club Nacional | 72 | 43 | 14 | 15 | +54 | 140 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | +22 | 63 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 72 | 34 | 22 | 16 | +30 | 124 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 72 | 30 | 23 | 19 | +15 | 113 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 72 | 32 | 16 | 24 | +21 | 112 |
| 7 | Juventud | 72 | 28 | 18 | 26 | 0 | 102 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 72 | 27 | 19 | 26 | -4 | 100 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | +3 | 47 |
| 10 | Boston River | 72 | 24 | 20 | 28 | -2 | 92 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 72 | 21 | 23 | 28 | -8 | 86 |
| 12 | Central Espanol | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | -13 | 41 |
| 13 | Cerro | 72 | 22 | 18 | 32 | -33 | 83 |
| 14 | Wanderers | 72 | 20 | 22 | 30 | -24 | 82 |
| 15 | Danubio | 72 | 16 | 27 | 29 | -16 | 75 |
| 16 | Progreso | 72 | 20 | 14 | 38 | -40 | 74 |
Team Insights
Deportivo Maldonado- ●Deportivo Maldonado have been undefeated in their last 12 home matches.
- ●Deportivo Maldonado have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Deportivo Maldonado have kept a clean sheet in 9 of their 18 home matches.
- ●Deportivo Maldonado have scored in 16 of their 18 home matches.
- ●Deportivo Maldonado have won 6 of their 17 away matches.
- ●Deportivo Maldonado have scored in 12 of their 17 away matches.
Cerro- ●Cerro have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Cerro failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Cerro have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Cerro failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Cerro failed to keep a clean sheet in 16 of their 18 away matches.
- ●Cerro have lost 11 of their 18 away matches.
- ●72% of Cerro's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●Cerro have scored 59% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Deportivo MaldonadoDAAlbion FC0–0
Albion FC0–0WHDanubio2–1
Danubio2–1LAClub Nacional2–3
Club Nacional2–3DHLiverpool Montevideo1–1
Liverpool Montevideo1–1WHCentral Espanol3–0
Central Espanol3–0WAAtletico Torque2–0
Atletico Torque2–0–HCerro14/11
Cerro14/11CerroLHCentral Espanol1–2
Central Espanol1–2LAAtletico Torque1–3
Atletico Torque1–3DHCerro Largo1–1
Cerro Largo1–1WADefensor Sporting3–2
Defensor Sporting3–2LHWanderers0–2
Wanderers0–2DAJuventud0–0
Juventud0–0–ADeportivo Maldonado14/11
Deportivo Maldonado14/11Top Scorers
Deportivo MaldonadoC. Tabo11 ⚽
S. Ramirez7 ⚽
R. Cesar6 ⚽
A. M. Noble Sequeira6 ⚽
G. Larrazabal3 ⚽
G. Lopez3 ⚽
CerroA. Cambon6 ⚽
A. Macelli3 ⚽
J. Amaro3 ⚽
A. Severo3 ⚽
Agustin Miranda2 ⚽
B. Aleman2 ⚽
Cards Given
Deportivo MaldonadoM. Gonzalez9 🟨
H. Menosse7 🟨
C. Tabo6 🟨
Maximiliano González6 🟨
Christian Tabó5 🟨
Facundo Tealde5 🟨
CerroD. Suarez10 🟨
B. Aleman6 🟨
A. Macelli6 🟨
Alejo Macelli6 🟨
Cristian Barros6 🟨
Juan Cruz Guasone6 🟨