New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic — USL Championship
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New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic meet in the USL Championship 2026 season on 16 November 2026. New Mexico United have recorded 22 wins from 42 matches this season (52% win rate), averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 60%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. Sacramento Republic have won 48% of their 40 matches, with 1.43 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 48%, Over 2.5 at 33%, and clean sheets at 40%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.41 for New Mexico United and 1.13 for Sacramento Republic. The models give New Mexico United a 42% win probability, with a draw at 28% and an Sacramento Republic win at 30%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 46% and BTTS at 51%.
Season Statistics
New Mexico United—
Sacramento Republic4º
Position
5º
1.71
PPG
1.53
50%
Win %
40%
1.36
Goals / game
1.27
1.07
Conceded / game
1.00
50%
BTTS %
48%
33%
Clean sheet %
40%
60%
Over 2.5 %
33%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
New Mexico United
Home (7)
—
Sacramento Republic
Away (8)
2.00
PPG
1.25
57%
Win %
25%
1.71
Goals / game
1.00
1.14
Conceded / game
1.00
63%
BTTS %
47%
29%
Clean sheet %
32%
71%
Over 2.5 %
21%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| New Mexico | Home | Away | Sacramento Republic | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 76% | 92% | 56% | 78% | 86% | 68% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 50% | 67% | 28% | 35% | 52% | 16% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 24% | 29% | 17% | 20% | 24% | 16% |
| Failed To Score | 24% | 8% | 44% | 23% | 14% | 32% |
Goals Conceded
| New Mexico | Home | Away | Sacramento Republic | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 71% | 61% | 60% | 52% | 68% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 36% | 38% | 33% | 23% | 24% | 21% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 19% | 17% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 29% | 39% | 40% | 48% | 32% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| New Mexico | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 33% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 23% |
| Over 4.5 | 21% | 13% |
| BTTS | 50% | 48% |
| BTTS & Win | 26% | 18% |
| BTTS & Draw | 12% | 25% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 48% | 25% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 12% | 8% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| New Mexico | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 31% | 20% |
| Draw 1st Half | 43% | 55% |
| Loss 1st Half | 26% | 25% |
| Scored 1st Half | 45% | 33% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 48% | 40% |
| Win 2nd Half | 43% | 50% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 33% | 40% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 24% | 10% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 64% | 65% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 48% | 30% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 71% | 55% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 40% | 35% |
Recent Venue Form
New Mexico (H)W
Colorado Springs4–0
Colorado Springs4–0W
Phoenix Rising2–0
Phoenix Rising2–0W
Monterey Bay3–1
Monterey Bay3–1WPhoenix Rising2–1
Phoenix Rising2–1LSacramento Republic2–3
Sacramento Republic2–3D
Indy Eleven2–2
Indy Eleven2–2Sacramento Republic (A)W
El Paso Locomotive1–0
El Paso Locomotive1–0D
FC Tulsa1–1
FC Tulsa1–1WNew Mexico United3–2
New Mexico United3–2D
Orange County SC1–1
Orange County SC1–1DMonterey Bay1–1
Monterey Bay1–1D
Pittsburgh Riverhounds0–0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds0–0Head to Head · 15 matches
4
New Mexico
27%
2
Draws
13%
9
Sacramento Republic
60%
73%
Over 1.5
11/15
60%
Over 2.5
9/15
20%
Over 3.5
3/15
40%
BTTS
6/15
27/09/26Sacramento Republic
New Mexico United
2–3Sacramento Republic21/06/26New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
0–1New Mexico United31/08/25Sacramento Republic
New Mexico United
0–2Sacramento Republic09/03/25New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
2–1New Mexico United30/09/24New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
4–0New Mexico United19/09/24Sacramento Republic
New Mexico United
3–1Sacramento Republic22/10/23New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
1–0New Mexico United21/09/23New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
0–0New Mexico United23/07/23Sacramento Republic
New Mexico United
3–0Sacramento Republic23/10/22New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
2–0New Mexico United04/08/22Sacramento Republic
New Mexico United
1–2Sacramento Republic05/05/22New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
0–0New Mexico United24/10/19New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
2–1New Mexico United25/07/19New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
1–2New Mexico United09/06/19Sacramento Republic
New Mexico United
0–3Sacramento Republic| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | +26 | 61 |
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | +11 | 52 |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | +21 | 53 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | +14 | 51 |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +13 | 51 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | +10 | 50 |
| 4 |  Lexington | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +18 | 48 |
| 4 |  Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +8 | 47 |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | +3 | 45 |
| 6 |  San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | +2 | 45 |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | +2 | 43 |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | +3 | 43 |
| 7 |  Rhode Island | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | +9 | 42 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 40 |
| 8 |  Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 |  Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 |  Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -7 | 36 |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | -20 | 24 |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | -46 | 14 |
Team Insights
New Mexico- ●New Mexico United have won their last 3 matches.
- ●New Mexico United have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●New Mexico United have won their last 4 home matches.
- ●New Mexico United have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●New Mexico United have scored in each of their last 13 home matches.
- ●New Mexico United failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 17 home matches.
- ●New Mexico United have scored in 16 of their 17 home matches.
- ●New Mexico United have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their 15 away matches.
- ●New Mexico United have won 6 of their 15 away matches.
- ●63% of New Mexico United's goals have been scored at home.
Sacramento Republic- ●Sacramento Republic have won their last 4 matches.
- ●Sacramento Republic have scored in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Sacramento Republic have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Sacramento Republic have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Sacramento Republic have been undefeated in their last 6 away matches.
- ●Sacramento Republic have scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Sacramento Republic have kept a clean sheet in 7 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Sacramento Republic have scored in 15 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Sacramento Republic failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Sacramento Republic have scored in 11 of their 15 away matches.
- ●67% of Sacramento Republic's goals have been scored at home.
- ●Sacramento Republic have conceded 62% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
New MexicoWHColorado Springs4–0
Colorado Springs4–0WHPhoenix Rising2–0
Phoenix Rising2–0WAEl Paso Locomotive1–0
El Paso Locomotive1–0LASan Antonio0–1
San Antonio0–1WHMonterey Bay3–1
Monterey Bay3–1WHPhoenix Rising2–1
Phoenix Rising2–1–HSacramento Republic16/11
Sacramento Republic16/11Sacramento RepublicWHEl Paso Locomotive2–1
El Paso Locomotive2–1WHFC Tulsa1–0
FC Tulsa1–0WHOakland Roots3–2
Oakland Roots3–2WAEl Paso Locomotive1–0
El Paso Locomotive1–0DHColorado Springs1–1
Colorado Springs1–1DAFC Tulsa1–1
FC Tulsa1–1–ANew Mexico United16/11
New Mexico United16/11Top Scorers
New MexicoG. Hurst15 ⚽
V. Noel6 ⚽
D. Harris6 ⚽
N. Reid-Stephen6 ⚽
K. Keller4 ⚽
J. Melto Quiah4 ⚽
Sacramento RepublicK. Edwards12 ⚽
M. Rodriguez7 ⚽
T. Wolff6 ⚽
M. Benitez6 ⚽
F. Ajago5 ⚽
M. Malango4 ⚽
Cards Given
New MexicoO. Jabang12 🟨
Z. Bailey12 🟨
N. Hamalainen8 🟨
L. Archimede7 🟨
C. Gloster7 🟨
D. Sanchez6 🟨
Sacramento RepublicD. Crisostomo12 🟨
A. Essel10 🟨
M. Kaye6 🟨
F. Ajago5 🟨
F. Kleemann5 🟨
A. Rodriguez4 🟨