Mārupe vs Riga Mariners — 1. Liga
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Mārupe and Riga Mariners meet in the 1. Liga 2026 season on 24 October 2026. Mārupe have recorded 12 wins from 27 matches this season (44% win rate), averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 48% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 70%; and clean sheets in 30% of games. Riga Mariners have won 60% of their 30 matches, with 2.50 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 67%, Over 2.5 at 70%, and clean sheets at 30%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.61 for Mārupe and 1.95 for Riga Mariners. The models give Mārupe a 27% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Riga Mariners win at 50%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 69% and BTTS at 69%.
Season Statistics
Mārupe—
Riga Mariners6º
Position
4º
1.57
PPG
2.07
50%
Win %
57%
1.71
Goals / game
1.93
1.43
Conceded / game
0.93
48%
BTTS %
67%
30%
Clean sheet %
30%
70%
Over 2.5 %
70%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Mārupe
Home (7)
—
Riga Mariners
Away (7)
1.29
PPG
2.29
43%
Win %
71%
2.00
Goals / game
2.14
2.00
Conceded / game
0.86
43%
BTTS %
63%
29%
Clean sheet %
31%
71%
Over 2.5 %
81%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Mārupe | Home | Away | Riga Mariners | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 67% | 64% | 69% | 97% | 100% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 48% | 50% | 46% | 63% | 64% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 22% | 29% | 15% | 43% | 43% | 44% |
| Failed To Score | 33% | 36% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 6% |
Goals Conceded
| Mārupe | Home | Away | Riga Mariners | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 70% | 71% | 69% | 70% | 71% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 44% | 43% | 46% | 40% | 36% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 22% | 21% | 23% | 17% | 14% | 19% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 29% | 31% | 30% | 29% | 31% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Mārupe | Riga Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 90% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 60% |
| Over 4.5 | 26% | 30% |
| BTTS | 48% | 67% |
| BTTS & Win | 26% | 30% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 27% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 48% | 53% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 22% | 17% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Mārupe | Riga Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 15% | 50% |
| Draw 1st Half | 41% | 18% |
| Loss 1st Half | 44% | 32% |
| Scored 1st Half | 26% | 64% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 48% | 46% |
| Win 2nd Half | 37% | 61% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 22% | 14% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 41% | 25% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 56% | 75% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 52% | 50% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 63% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 33% | 54% |
Recent Venue Form
Mārupe (H)D
Riga FC II0–0
Riga FC II0–0W
Tukums II5–0
Tukums II5–0L
JDFS Alberts0–2
JDFS Alberts0–2W
Super Nova 22–1
Super Nova 22–1L
Leevon / PPK0–1
Leevon / PPK0–1L
Metta / LU0–4
Metta / LU0–4Riga Mariners (A)LMetta / LU0–4
Metta / LU0–4W
Valmiera / BSS4–2
Valmiera / BSS4–2L
Smiltene1–4
Smiltene1–4WRiga FC II3–1
Riga FC II3–1WSuper Nova 23–0
Super Nova 23–0LLeevon / PPK1–2
Leevon / PPK1–2Head to Head · 3 matches
0
Mārupe
0%
0
Draws
0%
3
Riga Mariners
100%
100%
Over 1.5
3/3
67%
Over 2.5
2/3
33%
Over 3.5
1/3
67%
BTTS
2/3
27/06/26Mārupe
Riga Mariners
2–0Mārupe09/08/25Mārupe
Riga Mariners
3–1Mārupe12/04/25Riga Mariners
Mārupe
1–2Riga Mariners| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | +78 | 60 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | +37 | 53 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 53 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | +24 | 50 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +13 | 41 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | +3 | 33 |
| 7 | Riga FC II | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Super Nova 2 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 29 |
| 9 |  Skanste | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | -2 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -27 | 20 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -37 | 19 |
| 12 |  Rīgas FS II | 23 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 |  JFK Ventspils | 23 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -24 | 16 |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 23 | 1 | 3 | 19 | -53 | 6 |
Team Insights
Mārupe- ●Mārupe have been undefeated in their last 4 matches.
- ●Mārupe have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Mārupe failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 of their 12 home matches.
- ●Mārupe have lost 6 of their 12 home matches.
- ●Mārupe have won 5 of their 11 away matches.
- ●Mārupe have scored in 8 of their 11 away matches.
Riga Mariners- ●Riga Mariners have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Riga Mariners have won their last 4 home matches.
- ●Riga Mariners have scored in each of their last 11 home matches.
- ●Riga Mariners have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Riga Mariners failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 of their 11 home matches.
- ●Riga Mariners have scored in 11 of their 11 home matches.
- ●Riga Mariners have won 8 of their 12 away matches.
- ●Riga Mariners have scored in 11 of their 12 away matches.
- ●Riga Mariners have conceded 57% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
MārupeDAJFK Ventspils0–0
JFK Ventspils0–0WARīgas FS II3–2
Rīgas FS II3–2DHRiga FC II0–0
Riga FC II0–0WHTukums II5–0
Tukums II5–0LHJDFS Alberts0–2
JDFS Alberts0–2LAValmiera / BSS1–4
Valmiera / BSS1–4–HRiga Mariners24/10
Riga Mariners24/10–ASmiltene31/10
Smiltene31/10–AMetta / LU07/11
Metta / LU07/11Riga MarinersWHSkanste4–3
Skanste4–3LAMetta / LU0–4
Metta / LU0–4WAValmiera / BSS4–2
Valmiera / BSS4–2LASmiltene1–4
Smiltene1–4WHRēzekne FA5–0
Rēzekne FA5–0WHRīgas FS II3–1
Rīgas FS II3–1–AMārupe24/10
Mārupe24/10–HJDFS Alberts31/10
JDFS Alberts31/10–HLeevon / PPK07/11
Leevon / PPK07/11Top Scorers
MārupeR. Penka5 ⚽
M. Oliynyk4 ⚽
A. Minasyan4 ⚽
K. Korsaks4 ⚽
R. Krievins4 ⚽
R. Speks4 ⚽
Riga MarinersA. Grazis25 ⚽
A. Pavlovskis18 ⚽
E. Bokans5 ⚽
R. Owusu5 ⚽
E. Stuglis4 ⚽
A. Zamullo2 ⚽
Cards Given
MārupeR. Sadovnikovs2 🟨
A. Minasyan1 🟨
R. Cevers1 🟨
R. Zengis1 🟨
Riga MarinersA. Sinelnikovs2 🟨
K. Karklins1 🟨